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Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:44:40 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Though experiment: a new craps bet called "the super pass line."

1. Whatever you roll on the come out becomes your point. Any number.

2. If you rolled anything but a 7 on the come out, you must repeat this point 9 times in a row before you repeat a seven 10 times in a row. If you rolled a 7 on the come out, you must repeat the 7 ten times in a row before you repeat a 6 nine times in a row.

The "edge per roll" of this bet is so small it's probably rounded zero. But since you can't take it down, you have to face the house edge per bet resolved.



Thought experiment: Any random shooter will lose less money with $205 on the passline compared to a $205 Iron Cross.

Why not just say the pass line is an invalid bet if you want to make this argument?

If I bet a $30 pass line and neutralize every point established, the average edge per roll is STILL lower than the Iron Cross. I may have to roll a few more times to take my money, but other than that, there's no action and the bet is down from my perspective. Unless you lose all your money (more likely with the Iron Cross).

The Iron Cross includes the Field.

The Field is a bad bet.

Therefore the Iron Cross is bad bet.

Pass line with neutralized points is strictly betting on sevens and elevens. Everything else is a loser. And it's STILL better than the Iron Cross! That alone should say something.

The Iron Cross is a death grind from the house edge and nothing more unless you get really lucky in the short run, or you have an amazing shooter and you're happy with 1/2 to 1/4 the profit you could have had if you knew how to bet against the seven avoiding the 5 place, and the Field.

Most guys who bet the iron cross do it with $5 four and $5 tens to boot. Talk about ignorant!!!
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TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
Joined: Aug 11, 2010
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May 14th, 2013 at 3:34:08 PM permalink
$30 buy on the 5 ($1 vig on win only)
$30 6-8-field....
$120 action...weeee
I'd MUCH rather have $30 pass with $90 odds

now back to your regularly scheduled program, already in progress...
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 3:47:20 PM permalink
Back to the original point of this being brought up, hurdles for a controlled shooter are measured in the domain of "per roll."

This is why the edge "per roll" is so important.

2.78% per roll is no good for a bet that covers so many outcomes.

I do hard 8's, but I get 1 in 28.5 hard 8's for my 3400 recorded rolls. And even then I don't bet that for a lot of money. It's still just because I can mostly.

$110 even working, or crapless with single or more odds is about the highest edge I will attempt. And those are both well under 1.00% per roll.

I really like 0.2% to 0.4% ideally with the minimum dollar risk at any moment.
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sevenout77
sevenout77
Joined: Apr 4, 2013
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May 14th, 2013 at 4:57:59 PM permalink
Quote: TIMSPEED

$30 buy on the 5 ($1 vig on win only)
$30 6-8-field....
$120 action...weeee
I'd MUCH rather have $30 pass with $90 odds

now back to your regularly scheduled program, already in progress...



I'd MUCH rather have $30 pass with $90 odds
Wow just yesterday you stated that the best way to play craps is to just play minimum on the line and odds. Now your telling us to do $30 Pass and $90 Odds?
Geee do you have any proof that this is the way to play craps ?
As stated earlier I did not believe that YOU played minimum.
You scare me, you fluctuate too much from day to day. Not taking your advice.
66 inside Booooooom Seven out!!!!
Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 5:01:18 PM permalink
Quote: sevenout77

I'd MUCH rather have $30 pass with $90 odds
Wow just yesterday you stated that the best way to play craps is to just play minimum on the line and odds. Now your telling us to do $30 Pass and $90 Odds?
Geee do you have any proof that this is the way to play craps ?
As stated earlier I did not believe that YOU played minimum.
You scare me, you fluctuate too much from day to day. Not taking your advice.



I'm not sure but I think he's saying pretty much anything is better than Iron Cross.

THERE'S A FIELD BET IN THERE!!!
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nezbit
nezbit
Joined: Apr 1, 2013
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May 14th, 2013 at 7:21:54 PM permalink
quick concept of iron 205 cross:

roll dice: anything but 7 you win $32.08 on average (30 wins / 36 outcomes)
7 rolls you lose $205, avg -$34.17 per roll

Iron Cross you lose $2.08 per $205 wagered per roll.


field bet is strictly a hedge for covering all the numbers, the negative EV isnt terrible considering the size of the bet. -1.02% edge

pretty sure we have covered how the passline bet is worse
nezbit
nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 7:40:59 PM permalink
PASS LINE BET:

$205 pass line

Come Out roll:
wins 8/36 x $205 = $45.56 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$205 = -$22.78 (11.1%)

point 24/36 (66.7%)

4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$17.08 (8.4%) house edge
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$11.39 (5.6%)
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$5.69 (2.8%)
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$5.69 (2.8%)
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$11.39 (5.6%)
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$17.08 (8.4%)



Now we have to take weighted average of these above figures to get this.

-$17.08 x 6outs + -$11.39 x 8outs + -$5.69 x 10 outs = $250.5 / 24 outs = -$10.44

-$10.44 / $205 = -5.09% (average disadvantage after point is established)

now we combine come out roll and after point is established to get total house edge

22.2% x $45.56 = $10.12
11.1% x -$22.78 = -$2.53

$10.12 + (-$2.53) = $7.59

now combine both
-$10.44 + $7.59 = -$2.85

-$2.85 / $205 = -1.39%
nezbit
nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 7:40:59 PM permalink
PASS LINE BET:

$205 pass line

Come Out roll:
wins 8/36 x $205 = $45.56 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$205 = -$22.78 (11.1%)

point 24/36 (66.7%)

4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$17.08 (8.4%) house edge
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$11.39 (5.6%)
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$5.69 (2.8%)
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$5.69 (2.8%)
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$11.39 (5.6%)
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$17.08 (8.4%)



Now we have to take weighted average of these above figures to get this.

-$17.08 x 6outs + -$11.39 x 8outs + -$5.69 x 10 outs = $250.5 / 24 outs = -$10.44

-$10.44 / $205 = -5.09% (average disadvantage after point is established)

now we combine come out roll and after point is established to get total house edge

22.2% x $45.56 = $10.12
11.1% x -$22.78 = -$2.53

$10.12 + (-$2.53) = $7.59

now combine both
-$10.44 + $7.59 = -$2.85

-$2.85 / $205 = -1.39%
nezbit
nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 7:42:41 PM permalink
$205 wagered on iron cross you lose $2.08 per roll

$205 wagered on pass line with no odds you lose $2.85 per roll


hmmmm..... you win guys i guess pass line bet it is.
nezbit
nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 7:49:53 PM permalink
The reason the overall house edge appears to be less than the house edge of each individual bet is because the house edge on place bets is generally measured as expected player loss per bet resolved.However in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8. - straight from the wizard

For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved (or ignoring ties) then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll (including ties). - straight from the wizard

http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

again iron cross prevails against pass line bet with no odds

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