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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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July 2nd, 2012 at 10:09:42 AM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
jet
jet
Joined: Aug 21, 2013
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August 21st, 2013 at 1:54:15 PM permalink
Let us calculate the probability of this event occurring at a casino with a single MS game (by the way, I know which store you are talking about, so I will use my own empirical observations)...

So, the table is opened 18 hours a day with 4 civilian on average at the table playing 30 rounds per hour. The probability of a royal per hand dealt is 4/ (52 nCr 5) ~ 1/650000 (I don't think any civilian would fold a hand consisting of two of the five royal cards). Thus the probability per round is 4/650000. Now, from round to round, the results are independent and follow a Poisson distribution if our observable is the mean probability of hitting being 4/650000. How many rounds are played in a 3 week period: 21 days x 18 hr/day x 30 rounds/hr = 11340. Pugging in the numbers we arrive at the chance of 2 or more royals in that period of time at 0.002325. Yes it is low, but not inconceivable....

jet
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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August 21st, 2013 at 1:59:17 PM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
jet
jet
Joined: Aug 21, 2013
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August 21st, 2013 at 3:02:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

It happened at Mototcity Casino, no secret about naming it. Also this wasn't third hand knowledge. I actually saw both hands. I was not playing on the games though.



I don't trust hearsay (especially those "people" at MC... just put a quarter on your trips man!!! You would be winning a lot more). If you actually witnessed these event, then it is far rarer than the numbers I give because you are not there 24/7 let alone 18 hours a day! But not as crazy as you think...

jet
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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August 21st, 2013 at 3:10:38 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RogerKint
RogerKint
Joined: Dec 5, 2011
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August 22nd, 2013 at 9:30:57 AM permalink
My girlfriend hit four aces last night. Of course she raised third street with ace four off. When we got to the room I said "You know I just made you 400 right?" She didn't care.
100% risk of ruin
lildevilLucy
lildevilLucy
Joined: Jun 25, 2013
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August 22nd, 2013 at 4:33:25 PM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

My girlfriend hit four aces last night. Of course she raised third street with ace four off. When we got to the room I said "You know I just made you 400 right?" She didn't care.



She didn't care ??? I'm sure she does care.
"18 hit me, 19 hit me, 20 hit me, 21 hit me" - homer simpson

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