Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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May 17th, 2012 at 2:17:32 PM permalink
Quote: Pavlov146

Flat Betting w/ Same Hand Results @ $10/bet:

Pushes: 9 ($0)
Losses: 46 (-$460)
Wins: 32 ($320)
Double-Loss: 1 (-$20)
Double Wins: 2 ($40)
Surrenders: 6 ($-30)
Naturals: 2 ($30)
SplitWW: 1 ($20)

Profit/Loss: -$100
Loss Per Hour: -$133.32

Difference: Modified Labouchere +$150, + $200/hour

OBSERVATIONS:

1.) The results are slightly skewed at this point because 89.9% payout rate is such an abyssmal return that I'd find it unacceptable if it came from a slot machine. Anyone can look at the statistics and see that I was confronted with a terrible run of cards, (which were much worse if you were actually sitting there playing them, trust me) so it is very likely that the flat betting will approach something closer to expectations over time and more hands.

2.) The Modified Labouchere did not come anywhere near the $500 bankroll or $200 Table Maximum at any point. I believe the highest single bet was $60-something.

3.) Again, I know that the Modified Labouchere will eventually fail to complete a line. This test is basically one of frequency. Can the Modified Labouchere succeed more than it fails to such an extent as to be a workable long-run betting system?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
Joined: Nov 23, 2009
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May 17th, 2012 at 2:55:24 PM permalink
This thread has gone way past discussing another lame-ass progression into outright spam under multiple user names ...

I say "flag it" ...

--Ms. D.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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May 17th, 2012 at 3:08:14 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146



In other words, let's imagine you have a starting line in Blackjack or Craps of:

2, 2, 2, 2, 2

Per the above, you would actually have to lose 199 hands in a row of Blackjack before you hit the table limit.



Dangerous thinking. It's not consecutive losses that are important on a Reverse Labouchere, as we talked about before. Consecutive losses are a bad metric.

Quote:


However, if you back up your bet 5x with the Edge Bet, every time, your line will go as follows, assuming consecutive losses:

2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 24, 156,

As you can see, after two consecutive losses, you can no longer fully back up your Edge Bet because of the Table Limit.



Use single odds. Smaller number on the line, Large on the odds if point is set, unless you can get enough odds to cover it.

2 2 2 2 2

Seven hit :

2 2 2 2

Point is 4, 7-out :

2 2 2 2 4

Next point is 6, $2 on line $4 odds. Shooter misses :

2 2 2 2 4 6

Next point is 8, and shooter hits, $2 win on line and $6 odds pays $7.

2 2 2 3

Next point is 10 and shooter hits, $2 on the line and $6 win on the odds:

2 1

Etc, etc.

It remains you are making -EV bets. But that's fine, what I am unclear about is what your AIM with the system is?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 17th, 2012 at 3:26:07 PM permalink
removed
silly
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 17th, 2012 at 3:38:42 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Greetings,

This is my first post at this website, but I was hoping that someone would be willing to comment if any holes can be found in a betting system which I believe to be viable for on-line Blackjack.

Please keep in mind that it is unlikely for one to be able to employ this system in live casino Blackjack as the memory requirements would be incredible (and you can not have a paper/pen at the table) however, nobody can stop you from having such implements in your own home.

For online BJ.
I missed that.

Now you really need lots of Good Luck!
You really trust playing online BJ?
That is gambling!
I Heart Vi Hart
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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May 17th, 2012 at 3:58:40 PM permalink
DorothyGale,

The only thing this thread has gone is four pages in fewer days.

I have already asked the Moderator, JB, to delete the posts of, "Pavlov146," as well as the account if he so chooses. I quoted myself so that I would not lose the information. This is my only record of this information. I am not trying to, "Flood," or, "Spam," anything. Specifically, my goal was to answer to people who addressed me in a prompt manner out of courtesy to them.

Besides, what unsolicited bulk message am I trying to send? Was my link in my OP an advertisement for Wikipedia when I didn't even hotlink it? They really don't need me to Spam for them, they're already fairly popular in case you weren't aware of that.

I am not trying to sell anything. I freely admit that this system might prove to be an abject failure. Furthermore, this is an on-going experiment.

In any event, I'm not wasting a post on this alone. There may be more results tonight, if I have time for a few hands, but here are my results from earlier:

HandsLineResultsProfit
62, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 6, 8(Double Win on 8 units bet cancels 6, 2 and 4, 2, leaves $2 extra)W, L, L, L, W, DWProfit: $12 Hands: 6 Wins: 2 (33%) Losses: 3 (50%) DWin: 1 (16%) Overall Losses: 3 (50%) Overall Wins: 3 (50%)
42, 2, 2, 2, 2, 8, 10(Double Win on 12 Units Bet Cancels 10, 2 and 8, 2, 2)W, DL, L, DWProfit: $10 Hands: 4 Wins: 1 (25%) Losses: 1 (25%) DL: 1 (25%) DW: 1 (25%) All Wins: 2 (50%) All Losses: 2 (50%)
32, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4 (Double Win on 6 units bet cancels 4, 2 and 2, 2, 2)L, DW, WProfit: $10 Hands: 3 Wins: 1 (33%) DW: 1 (33%) Losses: 1 (33%) All Wins: 2 (67%)
4 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4 W, L, W, WProfit: $10 Hands: 4 All Wins: 3 (75%) All Losses: 1 (25%)
3 2, 2, 2, 2, 2 W, W, WProfit: $10 All Wins: 3 100%
102, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 3, 5, 2, 4, 6 (Natural on 7 eliminates 5, 2 bonus rounds down to 3, eliminates 3...Split-Win eliminates 6, 2 on base bet of 8 and eliminates 4, 2 leaving +$2L, S, L, N, W, W, L, L, L, SWProfit $12 Hands: 10 Losses: 5 (50%) Wins: 2 (20%) SW: 1 (10%) Surrender: 1 (10%) Naturals: 1 (10%) All Wins: 4 (40%) All Losses: 6 (60%)
2 2, 2, 2, 2, 2 (Double Win on Base Bet of 4 eliminates 2, 2 and 2, 2)DW, WProfit: $10 Hands: 2 Wins: 1 (50%) DW: 1 (50%) All Wins: 2 (100%)
72, 2, 2, 2, 2 4, 2, 4 (Double Win on 6 Base Bet Eliminates 4, 2 and 2, 2, 2)P, L, W, S, L, DW, WProfit: $10 Losses: 2 (28.4%) Wins: 2 (28.4%) Surreder: 1 (14.2%) Push: 1 (14.2%) DW: 1 (14.2%) All Wins: 3 (42.6%) All Losses: 3 (42.6%)


Duration: 30 Minutes

Hands: 39
Wins: 15 (38.5%)
Losses: 13 (33.3%)
Surrenders: 2 (5.1%)
Split Wins: 1 (2.6%)
Double Wins: 5 (12.8%)
Double Losses: 1 (2.6%)
Naturals: 1 (2.6%)
Pushes: 1 (2.6%)
All Wins: 22 (56.4%)
All Losses: 16 (41%)

Total Profit: $84 ($168/hr)

VS. FLAT BETTING

Wins: 15 $150
Losses: 13 -$130
Surrenders: 2 -$10
Split Wins: 1 $20
Double Wins: 5 $100
Double Losses: 1 -$20
Naturals: 1 $15
Pushes: 1 $0

Profit: $125 ($250/hr)

RUNNING TOTALS:

Duration: 1.15

Hands: 138

Wins: 47 (34.1%)
Losses: 59 (42.8%)
Surrenders: 8 (5.8%)
Split Wins: 2 (1.4%)
Double Wins: 7 (5.1%)
Double Losses: 2 (1.4%)
Naturals: 3 (2.2%)
Pushes: 10 (7.2%)

Overall Wins: 59 (42.8%)
Overall Losses: 69 (50%)
Pushes: 10 (7.2%)

Labouchere Profit: $84 + $50 = $134
Flat Betting Profit: -$100 + $125 = $25

Difference: $134 - $25 = +$109 (Modified Labouchere)

Labouchere: $134/1.25(Hours) = $107.2

Flat Betting: $25/1.25(Hours) = $20
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 17th, 2012 at 4:45:33 PM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

This thread has gone way past discussing another lame-ass progression into outright spam under multiple user names ...

I say "flag it" ...

--Ms. D.

No.
Do not flag it.

As much as many here at WoV hate anything about betting systems, this thread is in the betting system forum.
Yes, there are those that like to discuss betting systems.

True, the OP has broken a few rules and should pay the consequences.
I Heart Vi Hart
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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May 17th, 2012 at 4:48:25 PM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

This thread has gone way past discussing another lame-ass progression into outright spam under multiple user names ...
I say "flag it" ...
--Ms. D.

I go with Ms. D

OP first talks about online Blackjack.
Then multiple accounts to post more.
We all know what is coming.

There are rules and there are rules.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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May 17th, 2012 at 4:49:03 PM permalink
Welcome, Mission...
First- I do not think the double identity used should result in any repercussions.... Mission explained his reason for doing so, and was not trying to pull a fast one on the Wiz...
Second- I do not have the attention span to read all your bets and results... but of course I don't have to...
Nothing you can post... nothing you can chronicle.... nothing you can document.... Can change the fact that each bet you make the casino has an advantage... that each bet you make has a negative expectation.... that over a large number of flat bets, or Labouchere bets, or Tibetan Monk bets, or.... YOU will lose more than you win....
We all are well aware that if you have a goal to win a small amount with a large bankroll, there are a variety of progression techniques that will achieve that goal well over 50% of the time.... But the frequency of the one big loss multiplied by the dollar value of that big loss, is ALWAYS greater then the frequency of the many little wins multiplied by the value of those little wins.
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
Joined: Nov 23, 2009
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May 17th, 2012 at 4:54:54 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

... There may be more results tonight, if I have time for a few hands, but here are my results from earlier ...

Walter Thomason wrote an entire book "21-st Century Blackjack" based on a few thousand hands he dealt himself at his kitchen table ... maybe you've got a book here ... keep going ...

--Ms. D.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"

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