I think this "Strategy" has a good chance...
Poll
 | 19 votes (67.85%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 3 votes (10.71%) | ||
| | 6 votes (21.42%) |
28 members have voted
Pai Gow Poker...$15 minimum table. Sat down with $500. Started at $25 a hand and found a very interesting "strategy" (please notice I'm not calling this a system). I was flat betting until the dealer won twice in a row...then I'd double my bet. If the dealer won that I'd quadruple the bet if the dealer won THAT one I'd push all-in. I'm due for a monster hand after four losses in a row. So far I'm up to $3,280 for about 3 hours.
I'd like to get some additional backing so that I can flat bet at higher amounts - I'm worried about heat from the floor managers if they think I'm APing too hard on the game. I'm willing to put in the time - I just need a little cash to get started. Let me know.....THANKS!
Quote: WoldusI don't have a lot of time because I want to get back to the tables.....
Pai Gow Poker...$15 minimum table. Sat down with $500. Started at $25 a hand and found a very interesting "strategy" (please notice I'm not calling this a system). I was flat betting until the dealer won twice in a row...then I'd double my bet. If the dealer won that I'd quadruple the bet if the dealer won THAT one I'd push all-in. I'm due for a monster hand after four losses in a row. So far I'm up to $3,280 for about 3 hours.
I'd like to get some additional backing so that I can flat bet at higher amounts - I'm worried about heat from the floor managers if they think I'm APing too hard on the game. I'm willing to put in the time - I just need a little cash to get started. Let me know.....THANKS!
Don't be worried. They will be happy to book your large bets, as you are never "due for a monster hand, after 4 losses, 4 wins, or 400 losses...
Quote: DanMahownyIt's a good strategy if you hate money. But I suspect this is an April Fools joke. You cannot be serious, are you?
Ugh. At least it's a Sunday. Sorry ,but April Fool's jokes stopped being funny when I was 13. Now time to see all of the sonograms and death notices on facebook...
Quote: DanMahownyIt's a good strategy if you hate money. But I suspect this is an April Fools joke. You cannot be serious, are you?
Nice pick up Dan. Thought I might get a few more people though...
BTW, cclub... A good practical joke is ALWAYS funny...regardless of age.
Quote: jag22Please tell me what you think of the following system for roulette: start with the minimum bet on 1 number and for each loss, add 1 unit to your bet. And keep adding the additional 1 unit until your bet is a total of 62.00 the only possible way of losing is if you lose 47 times in a row. Otherwise you win Very nicely. If you win, start with the minimum bet again.
Its a really fast way to lose, its gets you back home
very quickly.
for over 400 spins in roulette.
Quote: jag22Please explain. If there are only 38 possible numbers then the chances of winning are 1 in 38. And you have even up to 48 times to try. So, statistically you have the odds in your favor.
27% of the time, your number won't come up in 48 spins.
And if I start with 1 unit, then 2, then 3, surely it takes 62 spins to get to 62 units, not 48?
If I lose 48 spins, I've lost 1,176 units.
Quote: jag22So my way wins 73% of the time is what you're saying.
I think yes, but it wins a little and loses catastrophically. And it will result in you losing approximately 5.26% per spin on average...:-)
Quote: jag22So my way wins 73% of the time is what you're saying.
Yes, but I don't exactly understand your betting method enough to give you more information on what you 73% of the time and what you lose 27% of the time.
Quote: jag22Ok. If I start with the table minimum. E.g. $10.00 if I lose I would add $1.00, and keep adding 1 for each loss. If I win then I've won more than my combined losses. If I win I start again betting the table minimum. So for example if I lose 50 times in a row I will have spent $1230.00 and if I then win my winnings would be $1920.00, a gain of $690.00 after a win I would start the cycle again, betting $10.00 .etc. The basic idea is if the amount you win covers all previous losses, you're good to go. This only works up until the amount you're betting is $63.00 . Any higher than that you would need to increase the bet in larger increments which quickly gets too expensive.
I thought you were betting 1 inside number. 1920 isn't divisible by 36...
Edit: 10+11+12...+58+59+60=1785, not 1230. even if you win the 60 unit bet, you'll have spent 1725 before that spin (and you'll win $2160 on the winner...)
Quote: jag22So my way wins 73% of the time is what you're saying.
As thecesspit said, your original question seemed to have some conflicts in it. Basically, your gambling strategy was not expressed clearly enough for someone to understand it and analyze it fully.
Now you have tried to clarify that a bit, but I think you still have some errors. If you start at $10, then $11, then $12, etc., and lose 50 times in a row, that last wager will lose $59, and you will have lost a total of $1,725, not the $1,230 you claim. If you win on the 51st spin, you will win 35*$60=$2,100 and be ahead by $375, not $690.
I tried to analyze your strategy on a spreadsheet. I may have made errors. I assumed that the casino would be willing to accept any of your wagers, which is not likely true after very many rolls. There are table limits, after all.
It appears that you would indeed come out ahead provided you hit a winner within the first 63 spins. There is about an 81.4% chance this will happen and that you will win some amount of money, if you and the casino both keep with this plan. If your number hits at just the right time, you could win as much as $675. If it doesn't come up at all in those spins, you are down by $2,583. After that, you will not recover with a single win, and you could continue to lose, building a substantial cumulative loss. On the 90th roll (still increasing by $1 per spin), you would already be down more than $4,800, wagering $99 more, with a 1 in 38 chance of winning back just $3,465. That leaves 37 chances in 38 that things would continue to get worse.
You might ask what is your long-term expected outcome by pursuing this strategy. Now that's the easier calculation, and it doesn't even require the spreadsheet. You should expect to lose 1/19 of the cumulative amount of all of your wagers.
Quote: jag22Fyi. Todays take: +$1430 
Quote: WoldusI'd like to get some additional backing so that I can flat bet at higher amounts - I'm worried about heat from the floor managers if they think I'm APing too hard on the game. I'm willing to put in the time - I just need a little cash to get started. Let me know.....THANKS!
Quote: jag22... the only possible way of losing is if you lose 47 times in a row. Otherwise you win Very nicely.
Don't worry about winning too much with your systems at the Venetian. You, your systems, and your money are welcome there any time.
Quote: WizardYou, your systems, and your money are welcome there any time.
Especially this system...
Quote: jag22So far my total gain is about $3900.00. .
Are you sure its not $39,000? That would make
more sense.
Quote: jag22If you go back to my earlier posts in this thread,...I'm following up with tthe results of my "strategy" for coming out ahead at roulette. I played for about an hour a day for 3 days. Each time I came out ahead. So far my total gain is about $3900.00. I am still waiting for some logic that disproves this strategy..
Don't worry about Logic or Math! Keep doing it and making money until it stops working!
Quote: jag22If you go back to my earlier posts in this thread,...I'm following up with tthe results of my "strategy" for coming out ahead at roulette. I played for about an hour a day for 3 days. Each time I came out ahead. So far my total gain is about $3900.00. I am still waiting for some logic that disproves this strategy..
No one can disprove that you have won money up until this moment. What we can show, is that each bet you have made will tend to lose money. Each casino game gives the player the opportunity to either win or lose on any given bet. Each bet has its own expected value (EV). Yours all are negative.
The intuitive reason that you must KNOW that your strategy will not work is this..... If your strategy actually had merit, do you really believe that in the history of casino gambling, that YOU would be the one to come up with a system that will bring the casinos to their knees? I haven't actually read the details of your system, but I bet it goes something like this... You keep chasing losses with larger bets until you win, thus 'locking up' some small win, while every now and then you have a crushing loss. And the one crushing loss will tend to be greater in monetary value than the sum of your small wins.
But, gambling is a beautious thing. You can continue to bet as you wish, as it is your money you are risking. We can only tell you what is most likely to happen, not what assuredly will happen. Good luck, and keep us informed...
Quote: jag22I am still waiting for some logic that disproves this strategy..
I thought I had provided that in my earlier post. I threw away the spreadsheet that I mentioned, but I could regenerate it if you want to hire my time as a consultant. As I said before, you have about an 81% chance of a single series of wagers coming out ahead (hitting some time in the first 63 spins), unless I made an error on that first analysis attempt. That means that on average about 1 attempt in 5 will result in your losing your butt. How many series of wagers did you make in those three hours? One series that runs 90 spins with your number "sleeping" will consume all your winnings to date plus another $900. Did you ever develop a strategy for beyond spin #63?
BTW, has anyone heard from 98steps recently about the continuing success of his craps strategy? Looks as if we have another one.
Quote: jag22I am still waiting for some logic that disproves this strategy..
Congrats jag22! You are every gambler's dream! You figured out a game that's working for you. Milk it as much as you can until variance starts to catch up to you (It will catch up to you), then QUIT! Don't waste too much time trying to figure out the Math or logic that disproves your theory; IT DOES NOT MATTER!
STACK YOUR MONEY!!!
The Math in all gambling edges applies long term. If you win in the short term and quit while you are ahead; the long term will never apply to you!
Quote: SOOPOONo one can disprove...
Don't waste your time. If there is one thing I've learned writing about gambling for 15 years is that the only way a betting system believer will lose faith is via the wallet, if he ever does. Many will search for the holy grail of the working betting system their whole lives.
When it comes to this topic, it will do no good leading a horse to water. They never drink it.
p.s. I suspect the original post is a hoax.
Quote: Wizard
p.s. I suspect the original post is a hoax.
But he's won $390,000 so far.
Quote: WizardDon't waste your time. If there is one thing I've learned writing about gambling for 15 years is that the only way a betting system believer will lose faith is via the wallet, if he ever does. Many will search for the holy grail of the working betting system their whole lives.
When it comes to this topic, it will do no good leading a horse to water. They never drink it.
p.s. I suspect the original post is a hoax.
Only about a month late, Wiz...maybe you're too busy eating cookies?
Quote: WoldusOnly about a month late, Wiz...maybe you're too busy eating cookies?
I was. The black and white ones. Especially the black halves.
Quote: WizardI was. The black and white ones. Especially the black halves.
Of course you were. The DarkSide of the cookie..
Quote: jag22From $64 up to $96 you increase each bet by (at least)$3 (3x32=96), which would cover the total amount lost. From $95 to $128, increase each bet by $4(4x32=128(or more) and so on. Obviously at this rate you would need a larger bankroll. At 72 spins you will have spent $3774 and a win would be 4096. Again, IF the amount by which you increase your bet would cover that bet then you are ALWAYS going to come out ahead. (Up $1800 today. (Just sayin))
Since I don't pay any attention to these things, what is a usual table limit at roulette? What is the most they will let you bet on a single number? And just for interest, is that the same amount that they would let you bet on one of the even money bets like Red or Black? Or is it the possible payout that is the limiting factor?
$5 - $500 or $1000 or $10 - $1000 or $5000
many places will limit you to $100 or $200 to a strait number.
of course, high limits are available as well.
here is a picture of someone on their way to play inside bets on an American wheel:
Quote: WongBoin my experience ( in the Eastern US) most tables range from
$5 - $500 or $1000 or $10 - $1000 or $5000
many places will limit you to $100 or $200 to a strait number.
of course, high limits are available as well.
in my opinion anyone playing inside bets on an American wheel is a fool.
WongBo, why do you say that anyone playing inside bets on an American Wheel is a fool? Unless you have some sort of imprisonment built in which make even-money bets better, the odds are exactly the same no matter where you place your money on a roulette wheel. I'd simplify your statement to say that anyone who plays on an American wheel is a fool. I think that might get your point across in fewer words.
European wheel inside bet house edge = 2.70%
in Atlantic City, where i usually play,
the American wheels have partage on the outside bets.
house edge = 2.63%
most places i have played on European wheels
have 'en prison' or partage on the outside bets.
house edge = 1.35%
Quote: WongBoin my experience ( in the Eastern US) most roulette tables range from
$5 - $500 or $1000 or $10 - $1000 or $5000
many places will limit you to $100 or $200 to a strait number.
of course, high limits are available as well.
here is a picture of someone on their way to play inside bets on an American wheel:
Inside bets have a high variance. If your aim is to get rich quick or go bust trying, the inside, single numbers is better than the outside.
The poster here will find with their system many wins (usually, as they say). No argument from me there. They will also find a day when their number sleeps for far too long and they are out several thousand dollars. The first time may not wipe out their winnings so far. That day may be a long way off, or it might be the next time they play. But we can logically prove it's a negative EV bet (something they said hadn't been done).
would rather be exposed to a wipeout spin once in 37 spins
rather than once in 19 spins.
he may get lucky with his system and
never suffer a total loss or a zero spin.
it is improbable, but not impossible.
Quote: WoldusI don't have a lot of time because I want to get back to the tables.....
Pai Gow Poker...$15 minimum table. Sat down with $500. Started at $25 a hand and found a very interesting "strategy" (please notice I'm not calling this a system). I was flat betting until the dealer won twice in a row...then I'd double my bet. If the dealer won that I'd quadruple the bet if the dealer won THAT one I'd push all-in. I'm due for a monster hand after four losses in a row. So far I'm up to $3,280 for about 3 hours.
I'd like to get some additional backing so that I can flat bet at higher amounts - I'm worried about heat from the floor managers if they think I'm APing too hard on the game. I'm willing to put in the time - I just need a little cash to get started. Let me know.....THANKS!
is this post serious? due for a monster hand after 4 losses?
