odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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January 8th, 2013 at 11:52:31 AM permalink
There's very low variance with a coin flip. 1% with high variance could have its frustrating stretches.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ybot
ybot
Joined: Jan 8, 2012
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January 8th, 2013 at 12:08:12 PM permalink
Supose at frech roulette playing 18 numbers.
The chance is 18/37
+1% edge means 18,18/36. To break even and have the 1% edge.
In 100 spins you could hit only 33 times or 63

It means that in 100 spins you could lose 612 units(-3 standard deviations) or win 468 units

Drawdowns are bad.

1e know there is lower variance than playing 4 numbers but it takes plenty of time to win
ybot
ybot
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September 17th, 2014 at 4:23:32 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Comparing the advantage posted about in this thread to card counting is absurd.

In fact you wouldn't have to work hard to get a yacht with a 1% edge, which is exactly what the wizard proved with his program.

I think you missed the entire point of this thread.



For a single player with +1% edge takes plenty of time to win the million.
The Bank plays against thounsend of pkayers at the sa me time and gets it quicker.

Suppose you play with Kelly Criterion, you will be able to play 400 tosses a day. Starting with 100 bankroll you must spend many weeks playing.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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September 17th, 2014 at 4:45:58 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Comparing the advantage posted about in this thread to card counting is absurd.

In fact you wouldn't have to work hard to get a yacht with a 1% edge, which is exactly what the wizard proved with his program.

I think you missed the entire point of this thread.

I have played BJ on a standard IGT with over A 1% edge, playing over 4k hands and still lost.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ybot
ybot
Joined: Jan 8, 2012
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September 17th, 2014 at 5:33:39 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I have played BJ on a standard IGT with over A 1% edge, playing over 4k hands and still lost.



In the end you succeed, but it might take many weeks.

The worst AP enemy is fluctuations.
supergrass
supergrass
Joined: Apr 6, 2014
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September 17th, 2014 at 8:00:17 PM permalink
Quote: ybot

For a single player with +1% edge takes plenty of time to win the million.
Suppose you play with Kelly Criterion, you will be able to play 400 tosses a day. Starting with 100 bankroll you must spend many weeks playing.



I calculate 230 days required. (ok, wizard says 174,972 tosses or 437 days)
If you get a job and save to 2k bankroll, then only need 155 days of gambling.
supergrass
supergrass
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September 17th, 2014 at 8:01:45 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I have played BJ on a standard IGT with over A 1% edge, playing over 4k hands and still lost.



After 4k tosses at equal size bet with 1% edge, I calculate 1 in 4 people will be losers.
ybot
ybot
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September 17th, 2014 at 8:15:45 PM permalink
Quote: supergrass

I calculate 230 days required.
If you get a job and save to 2k bankroll, then only need 155 days of gambling.



The edge must be stronger to worth be played.
But, how much stronger?
An economist might answer.
My experience for these case which p=0.50 is over 3% edge.
Fluctuation are brave too but you can handle them.
Thank you Supergrass for your data.
ybot
ybot
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September 17th, 2014 at 8:29:00 PM permalink
Quote: supergrass

After 4k tosses at equal size bet with 1% edge, I calculate 1 in 4 people will be losers.



Casinos take care of minimun chip value on their wheels and bj tables to know their winning per total money wagged.

As players fill layout, tha Bank cashes its edge(2.7% 5.26) with almost no fluctuation.

A single player on coin toss, roulette, bj or any game needs a gigantic time and expenses to reach the goal.

I remember ph Alan Wilson spent several days studying and playing wheel the 1960's and highlighted the importance to chose the appropiatte chip value to afford a long week/month play.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 18th, 2014 at 3:55:51 AM permalink
Quote: ybot

In the end you succeed, but it might take many weeks.

The worst AP enemy is fluctuations.

Yes I was just pointing out, you shouldn't start buying hookers and blow while dreaming about where you are going to store your millions just because you find a 1% advantage on a table game.

I know guys that gave up 3 card poker hole carding with a supposed 3% advantage. I say supposed because I don't know how accurate their hole carding was.They seemed to be objective about it. I'm not sure how 3CP compares to a coin flip.


Kelly is a great guy however, I won't trust him with my BR. I will stick with my gut, personal experiences and tolerance. I might bet more or less then Kelly and his math says.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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