Table limits:

5 minimum

10,000 maximum

100X odds

Bet 505$ Don't Pass

Come out:

2,3 = win 505

7,11 = lose 505

12 = push

6/8 ... then Put the 6/8 5 flat with 500 odds.. 7 out.. break even. 6/8 profit 100$

5/9 ... then Put the 5/9 .. 7 out ... break even. 5/9 profit 250$

4/10 .. then Put the 4/10 .. 7 out. break even. 4/10 profit 500$

-----

8/36 Come Outs I'll get whacked for 505.

3/36 Come Outs I'll get lucky and win 505 off the bat

1/36 Come Outs We play again.

10/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 100

8/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 250

4/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 500

Quote:minnesotajoe-----

8/36 Come Outs I'll get whacked for 505.

3/36 Come Outs I'll get lucky and win 505 off the bat

1/36 Come Outs We play again.

10/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 100

8/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 250

4/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 500

I only buy in for $500. Puts me on the rail watching.

My opinion, I would still rather have more of my money on the odds part of the bet.

What kind of buy-in and win goals would one use?

corrections:

6/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 500

For those interested in the house edge.

5/36 #6 Come Outs freerolling towards 100 THEN only 5/11 profit $100

5/36 #8 Come Outs freerolling towards 100 THEN only 5/11 profit $100

4/36 #5 Come Outs freerolling towards 250 THEN only 4/10 profit $250

4/36 #9 Come Outs freerolling towards 250 THEN only 4/10 profit $250

3/36 #4 Come Outs freerolling towards 500 THEN only 3/9 profit $500

3/36 #10 Come Outs freerolling towards 500 THEN only 3/9 profit $500

So,

Let us look at a 1980 table. Just take the probabilities and multiply them by 55 so we only deal with integers.

Event | ways | net | wagers | handle | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

comeout win | 165 | 505 | 83325 | 505 | 83325 |

comeout loss | 440 | -505 | -222200 | 505 | 222200 |

push | 55 | 0 | 0 | 505 | 27775 |

win on 6 | 125 | 100 | 12500 | 1010 | 126250 |

push on 6 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 1010 | 151500 |

win on 8 | 125 | 100 | 12500 | 1010 | 126250 |

push on 8 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 1010 | 151500 |

win on 5 | 88 | 250 | 22000 | 1010 | 88880 |

push on 5 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 1010 | 133320 |

win on 9 | 88 | 250 | 22000 | 1010 | 88880 |

push on 9 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 1010 | 133320 |

win on 4 | 55 | 500 | 27500 | 1010 | 55550 |

push on 4 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 1010 | 111100 |

win on 10 | 55 | 500 | 27500 | 1010 | 55550 |

push on 10 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 1010 | 111100 |

total | 1980 | -14875 | handle | 1666500 | |

HA-pushes | -0.008925893 | ||||

handle | 1638725 | ||||

HA-no pushes | -0.009077179 |

One would only need 60 more wins with an average profit of $250 to come out ahead.

still just under 1% HA.

WinCraps has a free "risk of ruin" auto-bet file you can download from the website and run many simulations. You can change the deafult pass line bet to any type of bet.

a 1K bankroll, 1000 sessions. one can expect, before ruin, about a 26% chance to triple a bankroll ,about a 43% chance to double a bankroll , 60% to win 50% of your bankroll and 68% chance to win 25% of your bankroll ($250).

a 2K bankroll, 1000 sessions. one can expect, before ruin, about a 23% chance to triple a bankroll, about a 41% chance to double a bankroll , 54% to win 50% of your bankroll and 75% chance to win 25% of your bankroll ($500).

a 5K bankroll, 1000 sessions. one can expect, before ruin, about a 14% chance to triple a bankroll, about a 30% chance to double a bankroll , 40% to win 50% of your bankroll and 70% chance to win 25% of your bankroll ($1250).

a 10K bankroll, 1000 sessions. one can expect, before ruin, about a 4% chance to triple a bankroll, about a 20% chance to double a bankroll , 35% to win 50% of your bankroll and 62% chance to win 25% of your bankroll ($2500).

overall results were action*edge

My goal would be to make one profit then leave. Whether I just profit 100$ on the 6 or 8 or get lucky to see a 2 on the Come out... leave after a net profit.

Quote:minnesotajoeThank you so much.

My goal would be to make one profit then leave. Whether I just profit 100$ on the 6 or 8 or get lucky to see a 2 on the Come out... leave after a net profit.

You are welcome.

I re-ran a few sims just to win $100.

Win a min $100:

1k bank- 70%

2k bank- 82%

5k- bank- 90%

10k bank- 95%

(10k bank- 92% to win $200)

It would be fun to watch you play!

Quote:minnesotajoeI know that the House has an edge on this system... Opinions, though.

Table limits:

5 minimum

10,000 maximum

100X odds

Bet 505$ Don't Pass

Come out:

2,3 = win 505

7,11 = lose 505

12 = push

6/8 ... then Put the 6/8 5 flat with 500 odds.. 7 out.. break even. 6/8 profit 100$

5/9 ... then Put the 5/9 .. 7 out ... break even. 5/9 profit 250$

4/10 .. then Put the 4/10 .. 7 out. break even. 4/10 profit 500$

-----

8/36 Come Outs I'll get whacked for 505.

3/36 Come Outs I'll get lucky and win 505 off the bat

1/36 Come Outs We play again.

10/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 100

8/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 250

4/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 500

6/36 freerolling towards 500, not 4/36

Quote:appistappisI hope you are prepared to be down $1010 right off the hop a lot of times.

Yes a $1010 bank can evaporate very quickly.

8/36^2= 4.938271% about 1 in 20 back to back come out rolls.

The more come out rolls, the number and size of the pass line win streaks increase.

2 natural pass line winners in a row

come out rolls / prob

18 / 51.961582%

27 / 67.300052%

55 / 90.117610%

71 / 95.012314% at least 1 run of 2 or more in a row

~79.51% at least 2 runs of 2 or more in a row

~53.45% at least 3 runs of 2 or more in a row

still would be fun to watch as long as it was not my $$$ at risk!

Just to say I did it

I did:

$30 Don't Come on the roll AFTER the come-out point had been established (99% of the time they don't INSTANTLY 7-out)

$30 Place or Buy on that particular number (Casino I go to allows $1 juice on win only for a $30 buy)

Place 6/8 for $30 nets me a $6 win

Buy 5/9 for $30 nets me a $14 win ($15 - $1 juice)

Buy 4/10 for $30 nets me a $29 win ($30 - $1 juice)

They rated me for a $75 action, which will give me $15 per hour in comp. I'd usually be down about $100 after 5 hours, but have $75 in comps; not to mention the freebies assosciated with decent action (RFB; considering I'd do this every friday/saturday night for 5 hours each night)