Simulation Please
I always bet on the Don't Come. My bankroll is 100 units & my win goal is 10 units. I keep playing until I win 10 units or lose my entire bankroll of 100 units.
System #1: I bet 2 units, if I lose I bet 3 units, I keep increasing my bet by 1 unit every time I lose. If I win I decrease my bet by 1 unit. I never bet less than 2 units unless I only need to win 1 more unit to reach my 10 unit goal. Example: bet 2, win, bet 2, lose, bet 3, lose, bet 4, win, bet 3, win, bet 2....... If my bankroll gets down so low that I can't cover the correct bet amount, I'm "all in".
System #2: Bet 1 unit, if I get behind a point I lay enough to win 2 extra units if the shooter 7-outs. So if a unit is $5 I lay $12 behind 6/8, $15 behind 5/9, $20 behind 4/10. I keep betting that way until I reach my 10 unit goal or lose my whole bankroll.
Which system is better or are they the same?
Quote: bbdsanWould someone please run a simulation to compare two craps betting systems for me?
I always bet on the Don't Come. My bankroll is 100 units & my win goal is 10 units. I keep playing until I win 10 units or lose my entire bankroll of 100 units.
System #1: I bet 2 units, if I lose I bet 3 units, I keep increasing my bet by 1 unit every time I lose. If I win I decrease my bet by 1 unit. I never bet less than 2 units unless I only need to win 1 more unit to reach my 10 unit goal. Example: bet 2, win, bet 2, lose, bet 3, lose, bet 4, win, bet 3, win, bet 2....... If my bankroll gets down so low that I can't cover the correct bet amount, I'm "all in".
System #2: Bet 1 unit, if I get behind a point I lay enough to win 2 extra units if the shooter 7-outs. So if a unit is $5 I lay $12 behind 6/8, $15 behind 5/9, $20 behind 4/10. I keep betting that way until I reach my 10 unit goal or lose my whole bankroll.
Which system is better or are they the same?
The word please is nice, but no from me.
System #1 is the famous D`Alembert System. Hey 98steps all over again.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/2794-craps-strategy-investment-opportunity/
tells about someone that used and uses that exact betting system.
Since you bet more that is subject to the house edge, you will hit your win goal less times than #2 but will bust more times than #2.
System #2 Now we are talking. Keeping the expected loss low and increasing the variance through the free odds bet.
No need to run any simulations.
System $2 will hit your win goal more, last longer when you do not hit your win goal or bust and will bust less than #1.
I do not know if anyone will do a sim for you.
Get WinCraps and run them yourself. Its $20 and you can run as many variations as you want. It is very easy to program your own systems.
Quote: bbdsanWould someone please run a simulation to compare two craps betting systems for me?
I always bet on the Don't Come. My bankroll is 100 units & my win goal is 10 units. I keep playing until I win 10 units or lose my entire bankroll of 100 units.
System #1: I bet 2 units, if I lose I bet 3 units, I keep increasing my bet by 1 unit every time I lose. If I win I decrease my bet by 1 unit. I never bet less than 2 units unless I only need to win 1 more unit to reach my 10 unit goal. Example: bet 2, win, bet 2, lose, bet 3, lose, bet 4, win, bet 3, win, bet 2....... If my bankroll gets down so low that I can't cover the correct bet amount, I'm "all in".
System #2: Bet 1 unit, if I get behind a point I lay enough to win 2 extra units if the shooter 7-outs. So if a unit is $5 I lay $12 behind 6/8, $15 behind 5/9, $20 behind 4/10. I keep betting that way until I reach my 10 unit goal or lose my whole bankroll.
Which system is better or are they the same?
I will say method #2 better than system #1.
I have results for Method #2. $500 bank, $5 bets and $50 win goal.(old simulation) The ratios are the same.
Simulation #1 results will be posted later.( I have results from past simulations but not with the same ratios) so I can do a quick change and run a new simulation.
If you have the software WinCraps I could send you the Auto-bet file(s) and you can run them yourself and change the input values.
Method #2
10,000 sessions
won 88.34%
lost 11.66%
total mean: -$1.70; edge -0.12%
win mean: $64
mode and low: $50
high: $148
game rolls
mean: 144
median: 39
low: 6
high: 2400
System #1
10,000 sessions
won 83.15%
lost 16.85%
total mean: -$16.43; edge -1.4%
win mean: $82
mode and low: $50
high: $455
game rolls
mean: 62
median: 48
low: 7
high: 705
Method #2 out performed System #1 just as predicted by Guido111 for the reasons he also posted.
Action*edge is a good yard stick to go by.
nope27, one question; for your System #1 results, how did you have mean win of $82 and a high of $455? The system says when you're up $50 you walk away. *update* Maybe those are the results from old simulations with different "ratios"???
System 1 comes from the Wiz's betting system page where he talks about the "Cancellation Betting System". I understand that no system will ever beat the casino in the long run. According to his analysis, with a bankroll of 100 units, the probability of a losing session is only 10.6%.
I was attracted to this because I want to play craps, watch people play craps (which is always entertaining), earn comps, get drinks, socialize, & with a little bit better than average luck I will come out ahead. With average luck I will lose $500 once in a while & win $50 most of the time, overall not losing much & getting some drinks with my girlfriend before we go dancing, play a poker tournament, see a show, watch a movie, or go up to the room & shag.
Lately I have only been playing system 1. If the box is watching, I get more comps because my average bet is higher, especially after 4 or 5 losing hands (6 or 7 units wager). I know system 2 is better because of lower HA but my average bet is only $5! Lame.
Thanks again to both of you.
Quote: bbdsanThanks to both Guido111 and nope27!
nope27, one question; for your System #1 results, how did you have mean win of $82 and a high of $455? The system says when you're up $50 you walk away. *update* Maybe those are the results from old simulations with different "ratios"???
EDIT:
Simulation results are correct.
I mixed up two simulations I was doing and yours was right the first time.
As you lose, your bet amount increases. I replayed a game manually where you were down $80, had over $300 working and the 7out gave you a big win of $250 on the 117th roll of the session. Unless you do not want to make a DC bet if the total $ amount for all DC points would set you over $50, that would be a different simulation. But as you lose a DC point you will not have a DC bet to replace it with.
I suggest you download WinCraps, it is free to play and try. Costs $20 for all features, like running multiple sessions at one time,
Play your system and you will see when you are down how big your DC bets become.
Also Consider,
Over 90% of your session win goals are hit when a 7out occurs. You lose your DC bet but you can have between 1 and 6 DC points winning at that time.
In other words, On a 7out you will win all DC points but lose your DC bet.
So your average win will overshoot your $50 win goal because of the number of resolved winning DC point bets.
average 2.44 winning DC point numbers.
Distribution
# count freq%
1 22577 0.300818099
2 19836 0.264296754
3 15710 0.209321537
4 10903 0.145272611
5 5515 0.073482386
6 511 0.006808613
75052 1
Average bet $35
45% of your bets were over $35
10% of your bets were over $75
Bet distribution
$ bet relative cumulative
10 10722 0.198375548
15 6338 0.117263964 0.315639512
20 4935 0.091306037 0.406945549
25 4268 0.078965383 0.485910933
30 3485 0.064478529 0.550389461
35 3187 0.058965013 0.609354475
40 2933 0.054265574 0.663620048
45 2627 0.048604044 0.712224093
50 2377 0.043978612 0.756202705
55 2318 0.04288701 0.799089715
60 2071 0.038317083 0.837406798
65 1859 0.034394716 0.871801513
70 1894 0.035042276 0.90684379
75 1680 0.031082906 0.937926696
80 1313 0.024292771 0.962219468
85 909 0.016818072 0.97903754
90 573 0.010601491 0.989639031
95 333 0.006161076 0.995800107
100 107 0.001979685 0.997779792
105 68 0.001258118 0.99903791
110 21 0.000388536 0.999426446
115 19 0.000351533 0.999777979
120 8 0.000148014 0.999925993
125 4 0.0000740 1
130 0 0 1
135 0 0 1
140 0 0 1
145 0 0 1
150 0 0 1
54049 1
Win Bets per session
Mean: 22.5
Median: 18
High: 207
Quote: bbdsanSystem 1 comes from the Wiz's betting system page where he talks about the "Cancellation Betting System". I understand that no system will ever beat the casino in the long run. According to his analysis, with a bankroll of 100 units, the probability of a losing session is only 10.6%.
To me your system #1 and his "Cancellation Betting System" or known by The Labouchere system are not exactly the same. The Wizard also quotes a sourse as saying "Silberstang notes that it is also called the D'Alembert or Alembert system." That sourse is wrong. The Wizard would not have caught the mistake since he is really against ALL betting systems. I am surprised he spent his time doing a simulation. Google "Cancellation Betting System" and you will see.
Your system #1, as you described it, is the classic D'Alembert system. Up 1 after a loss and down 1 after a win.
"System #1: I bet 2 units, if I lose I bet 3 units, I keep increasing my bet by 1 unit every time I lose.
If I win I decrease my bet by 1 unit.
I never bet less than 2 units unless I only need to win 1 more unit to reach my 10 unit goal. Example: bet 2, win, bet 2, lose, bet 3, lose, bet 4, win, bet 3, win, bet 2....... If my bankroll gets down so low that I can't cover the correct bet amount, I'm "all in"."
Since the Wizard has already completed some simulations for the "Cancellation Betting System", they look better than your system #1.
Quote: bbdsanI was attracted to this because I want to play craps, watch people play craps (which is always entertaining), earn comps, get drinks, socialize, & with a little bit better than average luck I will come out ahead. With average luck I will lose $500 once in a while & win $50 most of the time, overall not losing much & getting some drinks with my girlfriend before we go dancing, play a poker tournament, see a show, watch a movie, or go up to the room & shag.
Lately I have only been playing system 1. If the box is watching, I get more comps because my average bet is higher, especially after 4 or 5 losing hands (6 or 7 units wager). I know system 2 is better because of lower HA but my average bet is only $5! Lame.
Thanks again to both of you.
Never make bets for comp value. Bad idea.
Get on the boxman's good side, be friendly and courteous, make dealer bets and tip your dealers. You will get a better rating that way.
Quote: nope27
Method #2 out performed System #1 just as predicted by Guido111 for the reasons he also posted.
Action*edge is a good yard stick to go by.
Yes, The D'Alembert betting system can give one a sense of always winning. But once you do lose twice in a row, you are done.
Nice to see my results without a sim were real close.
I have played this system in WinCraps and it is fun when you are losing and as your bets increase you hit a winning streak and you make good money fast.
Problem is when you do not win, you can lose all your bankroll even faster.
Typical for any negative progression betting system.
Can't wait to see 98steps back in action come to think of it!
