petro
petro
Joined: Dec 6, 2010
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 99
November 3rd, 2016 at 7:12:14 AM permalink
Looking back at this thread, it's clear to me that "I was on the mark."
If your aim is to walk out in front with such a low variance game like Blackjack you must take some risk and vary your bet sizes. (I'm talking about in a single instance; not over a long period.) Otherwise, the HE will slowly eat away at your bankroll.

I can see there's some confusion about the definitions of betting systems and betting patterns. To my mind they are two different things.
A betting system in casino gambling attempts to affect the HE and doesn't work. Whereas a betting pattern doesn't affect the HE.
A "betting pattern" is in reference to someone's betting preferences.

For example: playing roulette someone may prefer to bet black after a red win. It doesn't mean the person doing it believes that black is more likely to show up. It's just a way of making decisions easily while gambling.

A betting pattern is a bit like how you put on your shoes in the morning. You don't believe that this method of putting your shoes on is somehow advantageous; it's just how you put on your shoes. :/
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 135
  • Posts: 17721
November 4th, 2016 at 11:47:37 AM permalink
Quote: petro

Looking back at this thread, it's clear to me that "I was on the mark."
If your aim is to walk out in front with such a low variance game like Blackjack you must take some risk and vary your bet sizes. (I'm talking about in a single instance; not over a long period.) Otherwise, the HE will slowly eat away at your bankroll.

I can see there's some confusion about the definitions of betting systems and betting patterns. To my mind they are two different things.
A betting system in casino gambling attempts to affect the HE and doesn't work. Whereas a betting pattern doesn't affect the HE.
A "betting pattern" is in reference to someone's betting preferences.

For example: playing roulette someone may prefer to bet black after a red win. It doesn't mean the person doing it believes that black is more likely to show up. It's just a way of making decisions easily while gambling.

A betting pattern is a bit like how you put on your shoes in the morning. You don't believe that this method of putting your shoes on is somehow advantageous; it's just how you put on your shoes. :/

So you learned that betting systems don't do d*ck. They might create variance up or down. Since there is no way to predict what way the variance will go, or when it will happen....it's meaningless. Everyone will lose whatever the HE is in the long run. Most of the time it doesn't take long for them to get behind.


You can walk away whenever your up or down for the day, but that's just delaying the inevitable. One day you will eventually lose 30+ days in a row.

You always hear about the guys who claim they have been winning every day for a long time (It's usually BS.) You rarely hear about the guys who lose everyday. I would call that BS as well but they probably keep playing long enough to insure that will happen.

You don't hear about all the people who go once in a while, some win some lose, but over all it adds up to the long run and they are collective losers.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
dwight56
dwight56
Joined: Jul 22, 2016
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 102
January 26th, 2017 at 1:22:49 PM permalink
First off I do not believe there is a system that works, any of them will work once in a while, with a system you need streaks or you will loose. Believe me I have tried them all and even constructed one or two myself. If you must play a system probably the best and safest is 2 1 2 3 4 5 and so on. or 2 2 3 4 5. Card counting is best but even then you can get hammered just a few weeks ago I was playing and the count went very good and I lost my max bet 7 straight times, (not fun). What I play now is a simple count with a flat bet of 1 unit then in good counts I play a progression of 5 units 2.5 then 5 then 7.5 then 10,10,10 till loose or the count goes bad. I have had pretty good luck with this.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 5459
January 26th, 2017 at 1:28:48 PM permalink
Quote: dwight56

First off I do not believe there is a system that works, any of them will work once in a while, with a system you need streaks or you will loose. Believe me I have tried them all and even constructed one or two myself. If you must play a system probably the best and safest is 2 1 2 3 4 5 and so on. or 2 2 3 4 5. Card counting is best but even then you can get hammered just a few weeks ago I was playing and the count went very good and I lost my max bet 7 straight times, (not fun). What I play now is a simple count with a flat bet of 1 unit then in good counts I play a progression of 5 units 2.5 then 5 then 7.5 then 10,10,10 till loose or the count goes bad. I have had pretty good luck with this.

No system works because it doesn't take in to account the changing house edge (which does swing in to the player during a blackjack shoe). Any and all systems simply up the variance of the game and also your Expected Loss. By EVER betting more than the minimum, when not card counting or doing another AP maneuver in blackjack, all the player is doing is expecting to lose MORE money in the long run. There is NO betting system that will ever change the house edge. You must track the cards to determine when the advantage in the game swings to the player and then bet more. This is done through the simple method of counting cards.

Expected Value = (NumHands*AvgBet)*(HouseEdge)

The only variable you're changing here is your average bet... and since you're not counting cards the house edge is a static -.5% (or whatever your game is). Thus, you can change your bet all you want, but that negative sign in the house edge means your results will ALWAYS be negative.

p.s. resurrecting the 5 year old thread takes heart!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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