Talldude90
• Posts: 141
Joined: Aug 24, 2022
August 27th, 2022 at 11:29:48 PM permalink
Hi, to preface I know that this WOULD NOT increase the EV.

So this system:

cycle ends on a 7

This will all be discussed in \$5 bets.

start with a \$5 don't pass (after a point is established place full odds)

buy the 4, 6, 8, and 10 at \$20/\$30 respectively (as long as they are not the point)

EVERY roll either place a don't come or a don't pass \$5 bet

Place full odds on all bets at all times (was playing around with this with 3/4/5 odds).

Do not re-buy the 4/6/8/10 until the next cycle.

Take down any buys that were off during come-out, that now are covered by a don't pass (though i'm not sure i just shouldn't leave them ON)

Now I know that the EV is going to be the combination of the buy EVs and the DC/DP. The question is, how would this affect the variance and what would the distribution look like (if anyone has access to software / is a spreadsheet nerd). It feels like it pays on standard rolls and loses on extreme cases (early 7 out or a long time between any 7s).

I would guess (wildly) that the effective EV for total amount bet would only be around 1% but I've got no clue those buy's are between 1.5 and 1.7, but you also can end up having every number covered by full odds as well...

I also considered after the initial point set, kind of sorta hedging a tiny bit by using a field bet (as long as the 12 is 3x pay) to smooth out the fact that you are placing a don't come (dp) on every roll. but it felt bad winning with 7 and losing both a DC and a field.

Again the goal here is to have max odds action while lowering variance at the expense of EV.

If you've understood this and read this far thanks, would love some input.

Also I'm not well read enough, if this is something that I just wasn't able to search and is a known thing, please just point me in the right direction. I am aware this kind of looks like a 3 point dolly with early buy bets and going forever instead of stopping at 3 points. Just wondering what the effect is.
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9691
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
August 28th, 2022 at 4:21:19 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

Hi, to preface I know that this WOULD NOT increase the EV.

would not increase it in your favor, I think you mean. It will increase the absolute value of the EV over making less bets though.

Quote:

So this system:

cycle ends on a 7

This will all be discussed in \$5 bets.

start with a \$5 don't pass (after a point is established place full odds)

buy the 4, 6, 8, and 10 at \$20/\$30 respectively (as long as they are not the point)

EVERY roll either place a don't come or a don't pass \$5 bet

Place full odds on all bets at all times (was playing around with this with 3/4/5 odds).

Do not re-buy the 4/6/8/10 until the next cycle.

Take down any buys that were off during come-out, that now are covered by a don't pass (though i'm not sure i just shouldn't leave them ON)

Now I know that the EV is going to be the combination of the buy EVs and the DC/DP. The question is, how would this affect the variance and what would the distribution look like (if anyone has access to software / is a spreadsheet nerd). It feels like it pays on standard rolls and loses on extreme cases (early 7 out or a long time between any 7s).

I would guess (wildly) that the effective EV for total amount bet would only be around 1% but I've got no clue those buy's are between 1.5 and 1.7, but you also can end up having every number covered by full odds as well...

I also considered after the initial point set, kind of sorta hedging a tiny bit by using a field bet (as long as the 12 is 3x pay) to smooth out the fact that you are placing a don't come (dp) on every roll. but it felt bad winning with 7 and losing both a DC and a field.

Again the goal here is to have max odds action while lowering variance at the expense of EV.

If you've understood this and read this far thanks, would love some input.

Also I'm not well read enough, if this is something that I just wasn't able to search and is a known thing, please just point me in the right direction. I am aware this kind of looks like a 3 point dolly with early buy bets and going forever instead of stopping at 3 points. Just wondering what the effect is.

The general effect that I can see is that your Total Action is very high. The way this will work out with hedging effects, I dunno. But I do know you can not defeat the EV of any bet by hedging with another bet that is against a house edge. Free odds bets will have no effect on EV but will increase the variance. You've got a lot of that going, so there will be wild swings.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Talldude90