AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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August 6th, 2022 at 7:44:57 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: unJon

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: DRich

Quote: unJon

He’s your friend. He’s down. He wants to switch. You should switch.
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I agree but I would also try and charge him for the switch. I would ask for $5 either flat for the switch or $10.25 when I win and only $9.75 when he wins.
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He's down 2k, and believes in mumbo jumbo. You can charge more, and he will pay. You can probably add in a -20% carnival side bet.
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Feels like you all missed the key part of the the hypo. The word, friend.
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That is why I offered $5. If it wasn't a friend the vig would be much higher.
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Oh, I forgot it was a friend. You should call it even, or charge him triple unless he promises to never gamble again since he didn't change out the obviously biased coin or call foul long before that. He is obviously prone to mumbo jumbo voodoo.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Cristobal
Cristobal
Joined: Jul 21, 2022
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August 6th, 2022 at 7:49:04 AM permalink
"Expectation increases linearly with trials but SD increases by square root of trials. That’s why you can see a lot of variance with few trials but very little with many trials. Also why you can beat the casino in the short term but they will always get their house edge with a long enough term".

I agree with the first part of that, the variance that I mention of 5%-10% was in the first hundred of hands, when I pass the first 1.000 and either the % was lower and lower. But in the road always when the player or banker was underreated around 1% always come back to his natural point, every single time.

If you have play 90.000 of 100.000 hands and you see that player is underreated in 500 hands (39.662 instead of 40.162). Do you think that the probability of having a player in this last 10.000 hands is what shoul be (0.446247) or is a little higher? For me, is a little higher, something around 0.45XXXX.

And that is not gambler´s fallacy, it´s simple law of large numbers.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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UsernameRemorse
August 6th, 2022 at 10:21:25 AM permalink
There seems to be very strong proof that this is not a fair coin. If after 800 flips there were 500 heads and 300 tails, I would assume the coin was biased towards heads. So, I would switch towards heads.

1. Weighted coins do exist.

2. You are not in a regulated situation.

3. The probability of a 500/300 split with a fair coin was explained by a previous poster.

4. People do cheat. On school tests. In marriage. In business. At cards/gambling. On IRS returns. That is life. Keep your eyes wide open and think, dammit.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Mental
Mental
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Cristobal
August 6th, 2022 at 1:39:35 PM permalink
https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability Probability 0.000000000000763
If I had that exact result I would be fairly certain that the coin is not a fair coin. You can use your binomial function in a spreadsheet or the above link to show that 500 out of 800 is exceedingly unlikely with a 50/50 coin.AT 444/356 you are already looking at a 1 in 1000 fluke with a fair coin. I would have quit way before 500/300.
nihilist
nihilist
Joined: Aug 6, 2022
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Cristobal
August 6th, 2022 at 2:08:33 PM permalink
I ran a bot on a coin flip site (hedon io) using all these variants mentioned in the comments, it only really works if you apply some sort of martingale in the method, which essentially gives you free flips, and cutting while you're up, starting when there's many reds in a row, and many other factors affect the outcomes.
Cristobal
Cristobal
Joined: Jul 21, 2022
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August 6th, 2022 at 3:58:44 PM permalink
Thanks Mental for your opinion and the link. What do you think about what I put above?

"If you have play 90.000 of 100.000 hands and you see that player is underreated in 500 hands (39.662 instead of 40.162). Do you think that the probability of having a player in this last 10.000 hands is what shoul be (0.446247) or is a little higher? For me, is a little higher, something around 0.45XXXX."

For sure Baccarat is a -EV game if you play ALL the hands, and now I am trying to figure it out if you can have a little edge (about 0.20%) if only you play certain hands. I have an excel with a little more than 52.000 hands with good results but is still a small sample to have conclusions.

Thanks.
Dieter
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Dieter
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August 6th, 2022 at 4:04:07 PM permalink
Hang on...

are you talking about baccarat, or flipping coins?

They are very different.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Cristobal
Cristobal
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August 6th, 2022 at 4:26:40 PM permalink
Really both, and I don´t feel there are very different, in fact they have a lot in common. But if it is a problem you can edit my last comment and centre in flip coins. No problem for me.
Dieter
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Dieter
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August 6th, 2022 at 4:34:22 PM permalink
Quote: Cristobal

Really both, and I don´t feel there are very different, in fact they have a lot in common. But if it is a problem you can edit my last comment and centre in flip coins. No problem for me.
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The math looks vaguely similar, so I understand the confusion.

In actual practice... no.
I've never shuffled coins and dealt them from a shoe, for instance. Nor have I flipped a card to determine heads or tails.

If your interest is in baccarat outcomes, you should probably disregard my opinions on coins as irrelevant.
May the cards fall in your favor.

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