Roulette Van Keelen Test
March 11th, 2020 at 2:32:23 PM
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Hello all,
does anyone know the 'Van Keelen Test`
I can send a link, but I am not sure if this is allowed? Let me know.
This test says, that if you play on 1 number and you have got a profit of 501 chips after 1000 bets, or a profit of 1501 Chips after 8000 bets, or a profit of 501 Chips after 100.000 bets, then you have got a winning strategy.
Do you guys agree / disagree?
does anyone know the 'Van Keelen Test`
I can send a link, but I am not sure if this is allowed? Let me know.
This test says, that if you play on 1 number and you have got a profit of 501 chips after 1000 bets, or a profit of 1501 Chips after 8000 bets, or a profit of 501 Chips after 100.000 bets, then you have got a winning strategy.
Do you guys agree / disagree?
March 11th, 2020 at 2:37:08 PM
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There is no such thing as a winning strategy. The wheel has no memory, and no 1 number is any more likely to come up than any other. Every payout is for less than full value, so every bet has a losing expectation.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
March 11th, 2020 at 3:01:46 PM
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I can understand if you've found a gaffed wheel which has a bias towards, in your case, the ball landing in #1 then after a while the surplus of #1's becomes stastically significant. Once this has been determined then you might want to carry on playing at that roulette wheel.
In practice there are difficulties with this occuring.
(1) The casino is also monitoring every wheel, typically using a computer, so would detect a possible bias and either replace it or check whether it was still level and fix it.
(2) You would have to watch that wheel for a long time. A casino is unlikely to let you just sit there without betting and the cost of just making minimum bets would exceed the potential benefit.
(3) How long do you wait to detect a bias. If it's too short then you might land up betting against a fair wheel (so have -EV); if it's too long then the cost of waiting is too high.
In essence in the current environment I don't think it's worth the bother.
In practice there are difficulties with this occuring.
(1) The casino is also monitoring every wheel, typically using a computer, so would detect a possible bias and either replace it or check whether it was still level and fix it.
(2) You would have to watch that wheel for a long time. A casino is unlikely to let you just sit there without betting and the cost of just making minimum bets would exceed the potential benefit.
(3) How long do you wait to detect a bias. If it's too short then you might land up betting against a fair wheel (so have -EV); if it's too long then the cost of waiting is too high.
In essence in the current environment I don't think it's worth the bother.
