Simulation for baccarat (testing possibility)

Threads: 39
Posts: 3011

Joined: Jun 17, 2011

Thanked by

January 8th, 2020 at 6:36:50 AM permalink

Quote: ChumpChange
...Player Wins: $31,460,500 - $30,760,240 = $700,260

Sorry to say but your maths is slightly wrong as when the Player doesn't win they lose $100 not $95. Assuming $1 each bet (it makes the maths easier).

Playing "Banker" :
Wins = 323792; Losses = 314605.
Money In = 323792*.95 = 307602.40; Money Out = 314605.
So Loss = $7002.60. (-0.993%)

Playing "Player" :
Wins = 314605; Losses = 323792.
Money In = 314605; Money Out = 323792.
So Loss = $9187. (-1.303%)

Thus whichever side you pick, you actually lost.

As an aside it shows that you need to run many more shoes/hands to get close to the expected value for House Edge. In this case there were slightly more Banker hands than normal.

MDawg

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8043

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

January 8th, 2020 at 8:17:12 AM permalink

I suppose I must assume that all the cash I'm stuffing into my winner's envelope during each trip must also be as illusory as following a pattern or streaking shoe. But when I deposit it at the bank or spend it it doesn't seem to cause nearly the fuss some of you make over it.

A win's a win! however big or small.

Last edited by: MDawg on Jan 8, 2020

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

TDVegas

TDVegas

Threads: 3
Posts: 1186

Joined: Oct 30, 2018

Thanked by

January 8th, 2020 at 9:00:44 AM permalink

Because crumpled cash on a lumpy mattress is always an indication that someone is beating baccarat and is a long term winner.

Give it a rest. How many times are you going to post that picture?

HunterBBQ

Threads: 1
Posts: 19

Joined: Jan 5, 2020

January 8th, 2020 at 10:05:25 AM permalink

Here is my little founding that seems to have positive results with short-term & long-term simulation.

Simulation Results with positive outcome from 10shoes, 100shoes, 10,000shoes:
From the simulation we may see the outcome having return of 10% profit per 10shoes to 2,000% profit with 10,000shoes

PP-FlatBet : 994 (Win 149 : v : 155 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 1011.3 (Win 174 : v : 154 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 998.25 (Win 155 : v : 149 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 980 (Win 154 : v : 174 Lose) |
Martingale 3time:
PP-FlatBet : 1023 (Win 149 : v : 18 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 1060.3 (Win 174 : v : 15 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1014.25 (Win 155 : v : 19 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 993 (Win 154 : v : 23 Lose) |
Martingale 5time:
PP-FlatBet : 1025 (Win 149 : v : 4 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 1010.3 (Win 174 : v : 5 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1054.25 (Win 155 : v : 3 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 968 (Win 154 : v : 6 Lose) |
Total Shoe: 10 (Simulation) | Games: 708 | Player : 303 (42.797%) v (46.469%) 329 : Banker | Tie : 76 (10.734%)

PP-FlatBet : 997 (Win 166 : v : 169 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 972.45 (Win 151 : v : 171 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 994.55 (Win 169 : v : 166 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 1020 (Win 171 : v : 151 Lose) |
Martingale 3time:
PP-FlatBet : 1040 (Win 166 : v : 18 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 1017.45 (Win 151 : v : 18 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1048.55 (Win 169 : v : 16 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 1073 (Win 171 : v : 14 Lose) |
Martingale 5time:
PP-FlatBet : 980 (Win 166 : v : 6 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 988.45 (Win 151 : v : 5 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1036.55 (Win 169 : v : 4 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 1016 (Win 171 : v : 5 Lose) |
Total Shoe: 10 (Simulation) | Games: 704 | Player : 337 (47.869%) v (45.455%) 320 : Banker | Tie : 47 (6.676%)

PP-FlatBet : 919 (Win 1523 : v : 1604 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 977.95 (Win 1661 : v : 1600 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1000.8 (Win 1604 : v : 1523 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 939 (Win 1600 : v : 1661 Lose) |
Martingale 3time:
PP-FlatBet : 1130 (Win 1523 : v : 199 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 1261.95 (Win 1661 : v : 188 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1158.8 (Win 1604 : v : 195 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 1151 (Win 1600 : v : 207 Lose) |
Martingale 5time:
PP-FlatBet : 632 (Win 1523 : v : 61 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 934.95 (Win 1661 : v : 53 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1252.8 (Win 1604 : v : 41 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 647 (Win 1600 : v : 63 Lose) |
Total Shoe: 100 (Simulation) | Games: 7046 | Player : 3123 (44.323%) v (46.338%) 3265 : Banker | Tie : 658 (9.339%)

PP-FlatBet : 888 (Win 1522 : v : 1634 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 929.95 (Win 1641 : v : 1629 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1030.3 (Win 1634 : v : 1522 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 988 (Win 1629 : v : 1641 Lose) |
Martingale 3time:
PP-FlatBet : 1003 (Win 1522 : v : 217 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 1102.95 (Win 1641 : v : 208 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1236.3 (Win 1634 : v : 188 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 1250 (Win 1629 : v : 197 Lose) |
Martingale 5time:
PP-FlatBet : 507 (Win 1522 : v : 65 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 977.95 (Win 1641 : v : 51 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 1095.3 (Win 1634 : v : 47 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 1017 (Win 1629 : v : 52 Lose) |
Total Shoe: 100 (Simulation) | Games: 7072 | Player : 3151 (44.556%) v (46.309%) 3275 : Banker | Tie : 646 (9.135%)

PP-FlatBet : -8618 (Win 152807 : v : 162425 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : -8161.4 (Win 161288 : v : 162385 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 2496.75 (Win 162425 : v : 152807 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 2097 (Win 162385 : v : 161288 Lose) |
Martingale 3time:
PP-FlatBet : 6842 (Win 152807 : v : 20995 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : 10450.6 (Win 161288 : v : 20539 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 25061.75 (Win 162425 : v : 18606 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 22286 (Win 162385 : v : 20157 Lose) |
Martingale 5time:
PP-FlatBet : -24350 (Win 152807 : v : 5747 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : -7720.4 (Win 161288 : v : 5224 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 18066.75 (Win 162425 : v : 4427 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 6215 (Win 162385 : v : 5070 Lose) |
Total Shoe: 10000 (Simulation) | Games: 705366 | Player : 315192 (44.685%) v (45.893%) 323713 : Banker | Tie : 66461 (9.422%)

PP-FlatBet : -8590 (Win 152720 : v : 162310 Lose) | BB-FlatBet : -7545.25 (Win 161745 : v : 162203 Lose) |
PB-FlatBet : 2474.5 (Win 162310 : v : 152720 Lose) | BP-FlatBet : 1458 (Win 162203 : v : 161745 Lose) |
Martingale 3-time:
PP-Martingale-3 : 6979 (Win 152720 : v : 20963 Lose) | BB-Martingale-3 : 11927.75 (Win 161745 : v : 20390 Lose) |
PB-Martingale-3 : 24658.5 (Win 162310 : v : 18648 Lose) | BP-Martingale-3 : 20914 (Win 162203 : v : 20327 Lose) |
Martingale 5-time:
PP-Martingale-5 : -22484 (Win 152720 : v : 5684 Lose) | BB-Martingale-5 : -7565.25 (Win 161745 : v : 5233 Lose) |
PB-Martingale-5 : 14361.5 (Win 162310 : v : 4543 Lose) | BP-Martingale-5 : 5351 (Win 162203 : v : 5092 Lose) |
Total Shoe: 10000 (Simulation) | Games: 705379 | Player : 314923 (44.646%) v (45.941%) 324055 : Banker | Tie : 66401 (9.414%)

i not sure about the simulation having error or error-free, however, if we using math to simulation the above founding and we may find the same results from what i had found here.

there you can check the simulation from 10shoes to 10,000shoes with 3-playstyle and 4-patterns each.

from this simulation results and if it's true about the outcome of the founding, and that means we may found the edge over the house edge if we follow some pattern to place our bet.

hope this information is helpful and further discussion if anyone needs further understanding about it.
Welcome all & Please all to help verify it together and bring some interesting founding together to all the players and also increase player edge over the house.

There is many betting systems and i didn't have much time to put every one of them into the test results, but if you found a better betting system, i may put it to a test and compare with above flat-bet & martingale.

Thank you

Last edited by: HunterBBQ on Jan 8, 2020

OnceDear

Threads: 64
Posts: 7534

Joined: Jun 1, 2014

Thanked by

January 8th, 2020 at 12:09:39 PM permalink

Quote: HunterBBQ
Here is my little founding that seems to have positive results with short-term & long-term simulation.

Simulation Results with positive outcome from 10shoes, 100shoes, 10,000shoes:
From the simulation we may see the outcome having return of 10% profit per 10shoes to 2,000% profit with 10,000shoes

........... we may found the edge over the house edge if we follow some pattern to place our bet.

hope this information is helpful and further discussion if anyone needs further understanding about it.
Welcome all & Please all to help verify it together and bring some interesting founding together to all the players and also increase player edge over the house.

There is many betting systems and i didn't have much time to put every one of them into the test results, but if you found a better betting system, i may put it to a test and compare with above flat-bet & martingale.

Thank you

In the UK, we have a saying: "Don't give up your day job"
Your conclusion is wrong. You have not found a player edge.

Feel free to. "Do give up your day job" and prove me wrong in a casino.

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.

OnceDear

Threads: 64
Posts: 7534

Joined: Jun 1, 2014

January 9th, 2020 at 2:26:26 AM permalink

Quote: HunterBBQ
Because of the "New members are not allowed to post links until they reach 20 posts."
so i may have to post more here to show some pictures as well.
please forgive me to take this action, but there is no other way that i can post a post that i want with the image inside.

Thank for understanding.

NO.1

No. That's not the way to do it. Breaking one rule to circumvent another is not acceptable. I'm not going to penalise you for trying, because I see your action as being in good faith.
If you really want to post a link or image early on, just ask a moderator and we'll likely assist you.

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.

OnceDear

Threads: 64
Posts: 7534

Joined: Jun 1, 2014

Thanked by

January 9th, 2020 at 3:18:55 AM permalink

Quote: OnceDear
No. That's not the way to do it. Breaking one rule to circumvent another is not acceptable. I'm not going to penalise you for trying, because I see your action as being in good faith.
If you really want to post a link or image early on, just ask a moderator and we'll likely assist you.

I did offer to help, so ...
In a PM from HunterBBQ, he's shown me what he wanted to post. Some redacted images of Malayan currency, Malayan currency cheques issued by Genting and what I take to be a Genting voucher for play.

I'm going to humour him by assisting him in showing his pictures without polluting that with my comments.. Edited only to make images show and to remove a preamble which I took to be for my eyes only.

Quote: hunterBBQ with permission

1st i will use the pictures to speak itself and worth a thousand words: (upload image here seem to have an issue)

Picture 1: 100k in cash on Aug2019

Image1

Picture 2: 100k (Winner Cheque) 23-Aug-2019

Image2

Picture 3: 110k (Winner) 27-Aug-2019

Image3

Picture 4: 90k cash voucher to buy-in

Link = https://imgur.com/4Ac2ATC
Image4

After all the thousand words pictures, the only message i wish to bring it here is that casino has winner cheque and non-winner cheque.

Getting a cheque from the casino is 100% proved "get" money from the casino and no other way, and so if you have a winner cheque and that means you are playing very well as well, (if anyone of you agrees)

Anyone of you may understand what is the diff between winner & non-winner and the story end.

Again it's not trying to show off or insults and please not to feel getting insults.

i understood human is the kind that needs to put a very big tree in front of them and they still ignored it with million reasons that can be fake and so on, however, if we put it in their eye and let them see what has happened and they may start to think differently.

All is about sharing and I hope you find it helpful from this sharing.
Thank you

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.

MDawg

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8043

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

January 9th, 2020 at 5:07:11 AM permalink

Sit at homes don't care about these pictures, they just come in and post something inane in response.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

ssho88

ssho88

Threads: 58
Posts: 682

Joined: Oct 16, 2011

January 9th, 2020 at 5:11:22 AM permalink

deleted

ssho88

ssho88

Threads: 58
Posts: 682

Joined: Oct 16, 2011

January 9th, 2020 at 5:15:13 AM permalink

Quote: MDawg
Sit at homes don't care about these pictures, they just come in and post something inane in response.

Hi,

Do you know that some of sidebet in those pictures are beatable ?

James

https://ibb.co/tL6nQx6

HunterBBQ

Threads: 1
Posts: 19

Joined: Jan 5, 2020

January 14th, 2020 at 3:34:12 AM permalink

update:
1st i wish to take this opportunity to say "Happy New Year To Everyone & Wishes everyone happy healthy"

So there is 2 things bothering me :
1. i wish to share my gambling story, but it may not interest anyone and maybe its kind of wasting time to share if there is no interest or value in it, but if anyone wants to know about it, please let me know you want it in long story mode or short story mode.

2. the outcome and results from the simulation and EV+ from my research, it is kind of super-secret but once you know it and understand how it works, you will think that is trash or useless because it's so easy to break something that others still can't find the correct way. Example of this Magic before and after you knew the secret how it works:
The Magic Show From Youtube

After all the magic secrets are released publicly, the same trick becomes no value or less value.

so today i will focus on my simulations project and i guess all of you may not know me, but i want to say is, everyone in this world has any kind of interest to achieve something, some want to be best in wall street market, tech, sports, space, wired ideas as well and etc.

maybe most of us interest to win in gambling but maybe we enjoy the game more than win/lose, of course, no one likes to lose, but each time we lose we will improve our next gaming experience.

anyway back to the point of this post: the founding of the simulations researching
i have to mention about EV positive is not something give you win every game or every hand, but of course if anyone understood what is EV-+ and so it will be same as cards counting in BJ and basic and so on, so the terms has to be met to have that EV+.

My questions & The simulation results terms requirements are.
1. Bankrolls, of course, we need big enough bankrolls to keep the system/str going
Requirements of bankrolls: 2,500 units of your bankrolls or the most minimum will be 800units
question: do you think its worth your time and bankrolls risk vs profit if above is the size?.

2. What is the size of the profits we are talking about here?. (its 1units per shoe, upto 15units per shoe)
Requirements the way you get profit : you have to play the shoe correct of course and be a bot?.
Question (This will be the question i really wish someone can discuss along): to get profits its very easy, as long we bet our unit(s) and we will get profit/loss, sound easy?.
Q1. how do you play a system/str/way to get 1unit per shoe with a long hour, the problem we will face is.
(You are working like a bot, yes you have no right to do any action but follow 100% what the system said)
1. you will get bored very quickly because you sit there the whole shoe to make 1unit?
2.of course, you will earn more upto 15units, but if this system working so well, will you try to bet more next round and so on, because you know how the system works and you just want to get more than 1unit with betting more than the system?.
3. you are not wiredo? but you are, because everyone next to you will see WTH are you playing with 2,500unlts but just put 1unlt everyone time with the same way and always?. (the casino will be the 1st to aware this pattern) what will you do to avoid this issue?.
4. the system have of course few way to play, but each, i mean every 1 system you need the system bankrolls, that means if you are playing 1 way, you can't play any other things, so others or casino will aware and monitor your playstyle because the system will tell you when to bet and no others options, will you try to play other bets to cover it up?.
(Example. system say bet BPBP then B, but when you waiting for this pattern to come, will you try to risk 1unlt to cover 1unit profit you will earn in this shoe?. even you will earn up to 15units per shoe, but if you do something else to cover it up, you are risking your real money to play a gamble with the table, because that is not the system told you to do)

3. how fast we will recover from the previous loss?.
all system will be win/loss, else why we need that bankrolls?.
follow the system and get that EV+ out of the table, then we will recovery in 2shoes or less.
every loss will need 2shoes to recover and so if 1st shoe loses, then 2nd shoe lose also and we need 4shoes to recover or less.

4. because its simulation results and its EV+, the best results we will get is 2units per shoe after 10,000shoes simulated and any amount more than that will be getting more EV+.
Q: This system maybe something or maybe trash for you, but why not. the question is how you play that kind of shoes amount and how you keep yourself like a bot?.
from my research, if you play perfect with this system, you will get 2units per hour, do you think it worth your time to do all this???. of course that is the minimum and the worse results we will get is +2Units.

Because we all knew what is system and we knew what is gamble and so on, the system of course can win more units like 15units per hours and so, but we must prepare for the worst-case and that is profits in 2units per hour.

Lastly this is simulation EV+ researching for bac, and please understand how EV works and you will understand why it need long hour to make it work as well. (its kind of, you are the casino playing with casino are the player and you need to hire youself like casino staff working long hour and many table=many shoes to get paid)

so today share is above, if anyone interest i will keep update to this forum, otherwise maybe i will stop my update in this forum.

anyway, thank you very much for read.
The BBQ

OnceDear

Threads: 64
Posts: 7534

Joined: Jun 1, 2014

January 14th, 2020 at 5:12:11 AM permalink

Happy New Year to you too.

Quote: HunterBBQ
anyway back to the point of this post: the founding of the simulations researching
i have to mention about EV positive is not something give you win every game or every hand, but of course if anyone understood what is EV-+ and so it will be same as cards counting in BJ and basic and so on, so the terms has to be met to have that EV+.

Hunter, you have a lot to say about EV Positive. I believe you are absolutely misguided in your thinking. You DO NOT HAVE an EV positive system, even if you truly believe you do. It's early days, but your mention of taking 2500 units to the table to win a couple of units SCREAMS Progressive or Martingale.
Let me tell you and your would be customers straight: With even a simple Marty playing Baccarat, you have a MASSIVE probability of winning 2 units ON EVERY SESSION.
A reasonable estimation for such a session on a low house edge game is

Probability <= (Starting Bankroll/Target Bankrol) = 2500/2502 = 99.9%
So you could easily sell that as a winning system and guarantee it to win that pathetic 2 units, time after time after time.

IT DOES NOT MAKE IT EV Positive, because on the 0.1% of times that you lose, you lose the whole bankroll. That 1 in a thousand loss can hit you any time.

Simulation, or real results or pictures of piles of money, Rolex watches, nice coats or red sports cars will not change that inalienable truth.

Claiming that you have this Holy Grail will get your claims torn to shreds here. If you can do it, then do it in the casino. Don't waste your or our time selling the concept.

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.

charliepatrick

Threads: 39
Posts: 3011

Joined: Jun 17, 2011

January 14th, 2020 at 6:03:46 AM permalink

Happy New Year as well.

Simulations need to run to millions, if not billions, of hands to prove. Also the normal House Edge or percentage of day player hands winnings need to be very close to known expectations. Another strange factor is to prove the simulation method doesn�t have an inherent bug which your betting system happens to benefit from. For instance I suspect some shuffling bugs help certain betting patterns win against a -EV game.

HunterBBQ

Threads: 1
Posts: 19

Joined: Jan 5, 2020

January 14th, 2020 at 9:24:57 AM permalink

Hey charliepatrick & OnceDear,

1st i have to make it clear, its a simulation project and the simulation output/outcome can be found on the earlier post how the simulation works and outputs results.

Of course , when i use the word "EV" we all understood fully about it and everyone will known its EV- game that casino offerings us.

But please also study there is something that like card counting, edge sort and so on, everyone is try to beat the game and i just try to do the same as well.

You are right about using 2,500units to take the risk of winning 2units is low or not worth at all and there is 1% you will lose that whole bankrolls.

But if we are talking about EV+ then it will not happen, because the more game/hand we play the more EV+ we will get, that is what i want to say.

However its all about testing stage and researching, and i try to simulate all the betting system with this simulation.

In my post above that i have mentioned its tested by shoe count and 10,000shoes seem small amount, the point is the word after that 10,000shoes, (anything more than 10k simulation will getting more EV+ = getting more profits, like 3units per shoe and so on)

And yes had test it with the simulator more than 1mil and more, but the point is we dont have that time to play 1mil shoe to earn that 1mil units per shoe.

So we have to fix the issue with less shoe and profit, so the simulation having always EV+ starting more 1k shoes, and still need more testing.

Again this is try to share information and not selling.
Also its results from the simulation.
Yes 1st i very suprised about the results and outcome, because its EV- game and i had try many simulation with many way and always getting busted bankroll and so on.

But that not mean it cant be EV+ from the simulation, and i using more time to check the simulator and all the output results to ensure the positive is true and not because of the simulation coding error.

That why this few weeks i was wasting a lot of time just to checking and find if there is any error in it to give me positive results.

However if using the results provided by public or some claimed the scoreboard are from real casino, then it maybe something.

Again please dont keep asking someone if you have sure win system get your ass to the casino and make them bankruptcy, that sound not so friendly but maybe its true about it.

The point is, we all gambling with our real money and not talk about thousand or millions, its a way to win and you need to confirm it many many many many many many time because everyone doubt it and even myself the 1st week i got the results.

So i took a long time to just checked the whole simulation and even try to find some forum to ask if any kind to check or have a look about it.

I can share the simulation coding, but not the system. And maybe that will be direct to the point?.

Once the EV+ is confirmed and so, we need to prepare and train ourselves and not rush to die asap or try to get busted by the casino asap when we never get a proper plan like how blackjack team get millions and got banned.

Because this is something very or super slow, and so we need to see all this will be worth all the work or not.

That why testing prepare checking and asking is the work i doing now, maybe wasted time maybe not.

However i still not believe about the results from the simulation and so, but i did use it on the casino and it produced some profit.

Maybe its because what you claim above about 99% and 1% will lose big. No one know about it.

All i need to do is testing and try.
Hope this clear your question as well.

charliepatrick

Threads: 39
Posts: 3011

Joined: Jun 17, 2011

Thanked by

January 14th, 2020 at 9:54:26 AM permalink

I should recommend testing your simulation code works. It is very difficult to prove the random process really does create random results and not results that cycle. It took me many weeks, if not months, to do mine. You need to ensure :-
the RNG part (which I assume you have found copied from somewhere) really does give random numbers - try things liks craps, working out Pi (using random points in unit square being within 1 of origin, etc.)
the cards are truly shuffled - try silly games like Casino War, Three Card Poker to ensure the House Edge and win rate from simulations match expected results.

As has been said it is possible to make a profit in the short term on most reasonable games, trials have to run many simulations to get over the luck element and converge on the average. Also most people know/think Baccarat is uncountable, although a few sidebets can be beat with hard work, so won't tend to believe there is an unknown way to beat the game.

Perhaps you could either describe this +EV play and see whether others agree that it's good, or just keep it to yourself and use it in a casino to make loadsamoney. However if you've found something that seems to work, even through quite a number of simulations, that doesn't conclusively prove it will always work in a live environment.

HunterBBQ

Threads: 1
Posts: 19

Joined: Jan 5, 2020

January 15th, 2020 at 3:37:06 AM permalink

After further checking on the simulation and try something quick for recovery whenever we got a busted shoe.

Luckily it still getting +EV and that is about the test for now, requires more time for more testing and methods.

Here will be something that i wish to share as well.
Let take a business or ROI for example:
You willing to open a business or store with 10k and take 1-3years to have return of your investment or take the risk to lost it all.

But when we talk about gambling we want 100% win and 1000% profit everytime we visited the casino.

Have you study casino business and talking about all the game offerings even cards counting will results in -EV no matter what you did. Yes you are right so smart about it with all the math and you studied everything about it.

But if its true about -EV is house edge let say 5% and everytime you make a bet the casino will took 5% from you vs you want 100% profit everytime or every hand.

Did you get the ideas of EV we are talking about?.
Casino didn't ask you give them all the money but in long terms they will take what they deserved with all the money , staff, setting, eye in the skies they put into the so-call business just to take a 5% out of you.

Also all kind of room, freebies and show they willing to give it free as well because of the 5% or up to 10%?.

If so the 5% is so strong and make all the casino become unbeatable, and you should start to think how you may gain 0.5% as a start and not how you make a bet and they bet will win forever.

If not mistaken about cards counting give you about 1% to 2% over the house edge, still you may lose from the start.

So are you talking the correct EV topic?.

There is many people in the forum talked about random vs randomness, i didnt agree on that because it cant be simulate a sure way, its all depends on the luck you have and the shoe you played.

If randomness works perfectly, why do casino need house edge? Because of the dice is very random or it has math supported.

Maybe this post will angry most of you, but its logic that we need something support the outcome and results in the end.

Hope this post make the project more clear to anyone.

If you want to use EV to beat EV, you are consider yourself as casino view and not player come and go as you like, because of today bad luck tomorrow might be better, did you ever see any casino dayoff due to bad luck?.

Also BJ card counting works due to long hour progress and big bankroll to keep recover. Because it has edge over the house but not mean you are sure win.
Let say you count the true count is +10 with less than 4decks in the shoe but each time the dealer get a A and 1 facedown card, what is your chance to keep winning let say 20hands?.

A good system considered good shoe and bad shoes as well.

HunterBBQ

Threads: 1
Posts: 19

Joined: Jan 5, 2020

January 17th, 2020 at 4:36:31 AM permalink

Here is the baccarat dealt code in my simulation:


player_cards = []
		banker_cards = []
		results = ''
		#drawcount = 0
		
		#1st draw hand
		# for x in range(2) :	
		player_cards.append(draw_card())
		banker_cards.append(draw_card())
		player_cards.append(draw_card())
		banker_cards.append(draw_card())

		P_sum = sum(player_cards)
		B_sum = sum(banker_cards)

		if P_sum > 9 : P_sum = int(str(P_sum)[1])
		if B_sum > 9 : B_sum = int(str(B_sum)[1])


		# check for natural win	
		if P_sum > 7 or B_sum > 7 : pass	# banker or player is 8 or 9 win with natural

		# lower than 6 either P or B
		else :
			# Banker Draw card at 6
			if (B_sum < 6 and P_sum in (6,7)):	# banker is lower than 6 and need a card draw
				banker_cards.append(draw_card())
			# Player Draw card under 6 point
			elif P_sum < 6:
				player_cards.append(draw_card())
				P_sum = sum(player_cards)
				if P_sum > 9 : P_sum = int(str(P_sum)[1])

				# banker draw card after player drawn 3rd card
				if (B_sum == 6 and player_cards[2] in (6,7)) or (B_sum == 5 and player_cards[2] in range(4,7)) or (B_sum == 4 and player_cards[2] in range(2,7)) or (B_sum == 3 and player_cards[2] != 8) or (B_sum < 3) :
					banker_cards.append(draw_card())
				
			B_sum = sum(banker_cards)
			if B_sum > 9 : B_sum = int(str(B_sum)[1])


		# initial new shoe setup
		if scoreboard : 
			currentScore = scoreboard[-1]
			win = (int(str(scoreboard[-1])[1:]) + 1)
		else: 
			scoreboard.append(f'Shoe{shoeCount}')
			currentScore = scoreboard[-1]

		#result of the current round
		if P_sum == B_sum :
				results = "Tie-Game"
				tie_win += 1
				if currentScore == (f'Shoe{shoeCount}'):
					scoreboard = []
				""" 
				# if currentScore[0] == 'T':
				# 	scoreboard[-1] = (f'T{win}')
				# else:
				# 	scoreboard.append('T1')
				 """
		else:	# WIN or LOSE results logic
			if P_sum > B_sum :	#! Player Win
				results = "Player-W"
				player_win += 1
				if currentScore[0] == 'P':
					scoreboard[-1] = (f'P{win}')
				else:
					scoreboard.append('P1')


			if P_sum < B_sum :	#! Banker Win
				results = "Banker-W"
				banker_win += 1
				if currentScore[0] == 'B':
					scoreboard[-1] = (f'B{win}')
				else:
					scoreboard.append('B1')

I had checked it seems working perfectly.
Please let me know if there is an error and i will amend that in light speed.

if above code implemented without mistake from the baccarat game rule, and mean the EV+ positive are almost succeful.

Thank so much for you time to have a look

charliepatrick

Threads: 39
Posts: 3011

Joined: Jun 17, 2011

January 17th, 2020 at 3:21:31 PM permalink

Assuming you've got the drawing rules correct, I'm surprised there isn't a parameter passed to the draw_card logic? It possibly makes no difference but you should really play out the hand if you reach the cut card. Also how does the program randomly pick each card in "draw_card", this needs to be truly random within the parameters of being N decks with a cut card?

HunterBBQ

Threads: 1
Posts: 19

Joined: Jan 5, 2020

January 17th, 2020 at 9:30:22 PM permalink

draw_card() function having 2 statement, 1. Check if the draw card is red card then the While loop will become false.
2. If not red card then pop a card from shoe.

Cut card and deck and shoe all in the 1st post already explained.

The recent post is show that and share the code of 3rd dealt card draw rule is correct or may have error or mistake.

Hope this clear your question.

HunterBBQ