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darkoz
darkoz
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December 15th, 2020 at 10:50:45 AM permalink
Quote: FTB

Well, someone will then come along to say that the experts witnessing the feat (flying through the air by just flapping their arms) in person now would not and/or does not prove the feat in question did or did not happen before.



That's what happens generally when you make impossible claims.

However more likely the US secret science force would kidnap the flyer and run tests in their area 57 bunker to determine how he is defying gravity with his arms
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MDawg
MDawg
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December 15th, 2020 at 11:04:25 AM permalink
Until the Challenge is over I am blocking the naysayers. You know who you are. Most of them haven't posted much lately anyway. With at least one major exception.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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December 15th, 2020 at 2:10:29 PM permalink
Ill do my best to address one of your question at a time. I put up money (and I'm willing to put up more) to show I was serious about making a legitimate attempt to win the challenge.

This entire thing is about how I thought/think you're adventures are faked. Since I believe that to be the case, I have no reason to believe you even have an extra 5k to pay if I succeed. Other than a bunch of written words you haven't taken one legitimate step in moving this forward. When I say faked I don't mean photo shopped. I believe the chips, rooms etc. are real, I just think there's another explanation to what's really going on. For example: You're an assistant to a wealthy person. You work for a Rolex dealer who sends you to vegas. You have a family member who works as a host.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
coachbelly
coachbelly
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December 15th, 2020 at 2:45:57 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Ill do my best to address one of your question at a time. I put up money (and I'm willing to put up more) to show I was serious about making a legitimate attempt to win the challenge.

This entire thing is about how I thought/think you're adventures are faked. Since I believe that to be the case, I have no reason to believe you even have an extra 5k to pay if I succeed. Other than a bunch of written words you haven't taken one legitimate step in moving this forward. When I say faked I don't mean photo shopped. I believe the chips, rooms etc. are real, I just think there's another explanation to what's really going on. For example: You're an assistant to a wealthy person. You work for a Rolex dealer who sends you to vegas. You have a family member who works as a host.



The challenge is clear, MDawg offered to pay Axel $5K if he could complete the challenge.

If Axel doesn't complete or even undertake the challenge, then Axel doesn't get paid.

If Axel doesn't MDawg trust to pay him, then Axel doesn't have to participate.

And if Axel doesn't participate, that means that Axel's refusing to do what he said he could do.

It's is as simple as that.

Front-money is Axel's attempt to complicate things, and not part of MDawg's terms...don't take Axel's bait, there is no positive outcome if you do.
unJon
unJon
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December 15th, 2020 at 3:09:21 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

The challenge is clear, MDawg offered to pay Axel $5K if he could complete the challenge.

If Axel doesn't complete or even undertake the challenge, then Axel doesn't get paid.

If Axel doesn't MDawg trust to pay him, then Axel doesn't have to participate.

And if Axel doesn't participate, that means that Axel's refusing to do what he said he could do.

It's is as simple as that.

Front-money is Axel's attempt to complicate things, and not part of MDawg's terms...don't take Axel's bait, there is no positive outcome if you do.



Posting for two reasons. Bolded is not a conclusion that flows from the premises of the argument put forth by Coachbelly.

Also just curious if I am one of the people that MDawg put on ignore or not. MDawg if you see this give a shout.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
unJonJoeman
December 15th, 2020 at 3:17:49 PM permalink
I had a conversation with MDawg over the phone this afternoon. It was a pleasant call. MDawg listened to my concerns, answered all my questions, and was well spoken. He gave me permission to paraphrase what he said and I give him permission to do the same.

Part of the discussion was the nature of the challenge and part of it was the entirety of what he is saying about his baccarat play. There seems to be some misunderstanding or lack of information about what MDawg is claiming. Some put the odds of his claims beyond Alan's 18 yo's in a row (which are 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000). To clear up the big picture, I asked MDawg questions about his overall play and results. The following is my executive summary.

Before the early 2000's, MDawg used to play blackjack and baccarat with roughly average results. Then, in the early 2000's, he quit playing, partially over some losing trips and partially to focus on law school and real life matters.

In 2018 he resumed playing and exclusively played baccarat.

Since resuming play in 2018, he has made 9 or 10 Vegas trips. Each trip he played at approximately three casinos.

He claims a net win not just every trip, but every casino at every trip.

His total credit line between casinos he plays is about $250,000.

His strategy on a daily basis is a net win for that day. To achieve this, he might play one shoe only or for 12 hours. Some days he might win as little as $100.

Since 2018, he is up about $200,000 overall. This is an average win of about $20,000 per trip.

Again, this is my takeaway and I welcome MDawg to correct me if anything is inaccurate.

That said, with ammunition of a quarter million dollars, it is not incredibly unlikely to do what he has done.

For one thing, his net win is only 80% of his bankroll. To look at it another way, if his overall trip goal was to win $20,000 and he had $250,000 to achieve that, if we tease the house edge out of it, his probability of success is 92.59%. To do that 10 out of 10 times has a probability of 46.32%. No big deal.

Yes, putting in the house edge and tipping, it is much more unlikely, but nothing that should raise any eyebrows. The way he told it to me, it seems to me that he has just been lucky, using the word "luck" in the mathematical sense. Nothing that should raise any eyebrows.

He did tell one story that he played at the Bellagio once before he stopped playing in the early 2000's and saw a 48 Player wins out of 49 consecutive hands, not counting ties. This did raise my eyebrows. To do some math:

The probability of a Player win, not counting ties is 49.32%.
The probability of 48 out of 49 Player wins, not counting ties, is about 1 in 21,922,409,835,345.
Given an average of 80.884 hands per shoe, the probability this event per shoe is about 1 in 870,371,922,467.
Let's roughly estimate MDawg has played 5,000 shoes in his life. The probability of seeing that is about 1 in 174 million.

That does raise my eyebrows a bit. However, over many years of heavy casino play, it's not hard to look back and find coincidences. For example, when I taught my brother in law to play Texas Hold 'Em, the very first hand we played he got a royal flush (probability of 1 in 30,940).

To conclude, not counting that baccarat shoe, nothing MDawg claimed to me over the phone makes him look like anything other than just a moderately lucky player.

I submit for the consideration of the forum that this whole thread is replete with misunderstandings about what MDawg is claiming and has entirely more drama than it needs to have. In fact, I retract my previous claim of "I don't believe MDawg's claims." That was based on my own misunderstanding of what he was claiming. I think all the drama is much ado about nothing.

Again, I welcome MDawg to make any corrections to my report above.
Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 15, 2020
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
coachbelly
coachbelly
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December 15th, 2020 at 3:19:31 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

And if Axel doesn't participate, that means that Axel's refusing to do what he said he could do.



Quote: unJon

Posting for two reasons. Bolded is not a conclusion that flows from the premises of the argument put forth by Coachbelly.



It's not a conclusion.

MDawg's front-money deposit has no bearing on whether or not Axel can do what he said he could do, he's just refusing to participate....he's refusing to do what he said he could do.
MDawg
MDawg
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December 15th, 2020 at 3:27:30 PM permalink
Wizard:
Yes that about summarizes it. In case it wasn't clear from the Wizard's post, as I explained to him I did win each trip since 2018, but I did not win every session of each trip since 2018. And to this day I have not seen (or heard of) a Baccarat shoe again such as I was fortunate enough to play that day. Just one correction - although in more recent (2020) trips I have played exclusively Baccarat, in 2018, and 2019, I have played some blackjack but mostly Baccarat.

As an aside, I actually haven't played at that fabulous shoe casino at all since the early 2000s. Maybe I should?  

Thank you Wizard for taking the time to talk to me at length today.
Last edited by: MDawg on Dec 15, 2020
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
coachbelly
coachbelly
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December 15th, 2020 at 3:42:43 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

with ammunition of a quarter million dollars, it is not incredibly unlikely to do what he has done.



And that is an executive summary of my entire argument regarding the MDawg controversy...his reported winnings are certainly not mathematically impossible...not even incredibly unlikely.

I suspect the doubter's response will be "he doesn't have ammunition of a quarter million dollars".

But that can be proven, by whatever method UnJon was prepared to use to prove his $50K credit line.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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December 15th, 2020 at 3:46:29 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly



If Axel doesn't MDawg trust to pay him, then Axel doesn't have to participate.

Mdawg himself said he would come up with some suggestions of how to guarantee payment. He wanted to see what I suggested first. I came up with a more than reasonable suggestion.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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