SIMPLE CRAPS STRATEGY
Example:
Come out roll bet pass line $5 (after point is established)
Come bet for $5, then
Come bet for $10, then
Come bet for $20 (to cover the pass line $5 and 2 come bets for $15, keep adjusting as points hit).
At some point on long rolls there comes a profit point that even if you lost without placing any new bet you would still be profitable. Table limits are obviously a concern, but even with a max bet of $2000 there would have been a point that you wouldn't have to continue to match all bets on the table b/c even if you "7-out" there would still be a profit.
I recognize that if a 2,3, or 12 is rolled you lose your pass line or come bet and I believe that is where I would lose over the long run, but what is the math and or house edge for playing the system above?
And what would be the difference if you bet this system on a "crapless craps" table?
Thanks for the information.
Close. It's just the 2 and 12 that is killing you.Quote: SONBP2...I think it has to do with the throwing 2,3, or 12, but not sure.
The 3 is offset by the 11.
When you have a lot of bets up, that 2 and 12 grids your stack down in a hurry!
As systems go, this is as much of a stinker as any of them.
Consider this example which does not have ANY 2 or 12:
Assume a roll of 6, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 8, 7. A ssemingly typical / good roll that doesn't even spread you too wide.
Start with $1,000.
$5 pass. $995 left in the bankroll.
Roll is 6.
$5 come. $990 bankroll.
Roll is 8.
$10 come. $980 bankroll.
Roll is 8. The 8 pays even money. $985 bankroll.
You now have $10 on the 8, and $5 on the 6.
$15 come. $970 bankroll.
Roll is 9. 6: $5. 8: $10, 9: $15.
$30 come. $940 bankroll.
Roll is 9. This is what you were waiting for. The 9 pays even money of $30. Bankroll $970.
You now have $30 on the 9, $5 on 6, $10 on 8.
$45 come. Your bankroll is $925.
Roll is another 9. Bingo. The 9 pays even money of $45. Bankroll $970.
You now have $45 on the 9, $5 on 6, $10 on 8.
$60 come. Your bankroll is $910.
Roll is 8. This pays $10. Bankroll is $920.
You now have $60 on the 8, $5 on 6, $45 on 9.
$110 come. Your bankroll is $810.
7 out. You win $110, plus can take back the $100 bet. Your bankroll is $1,020.
That was a lot of work and risk for a measley $20. Throw in one 2 or 12, or hit the 7-out sooner, and you're done.
Never been to a crapless craps table so I don't know how high table limits are there. From personal experience I have seen very wide high limits on regular craps tables.
Four Winds Casino in Michigan had $5min--$10,000max about a year ago.
Still does. In fact, it might be more.Quote: SONBP2Four Winds Casino in Michigan had $5min--$10,000max about a year ago.
Quote: teddysStill does. In fact, it might be more.
Why? The system is subject only to the house edge of the 2/12 if I don't lose my money on the 2/12 then why would the house edge be greater.
I understand I am not onto something new here and I am sure someone has lost playing some form of this system before. I am just not seeing how crapless craps wouldn't have a 0% house edge. Table limits are a concern but once you hit that profit point you just let everything ride and be happy with the profit you have made.
When you actually do roll a number that has a bet on it, regardless of how much is actually on it, your net win is $5 the first time it hits, $10 the second time, $20 the next, etc.
When you roll a 2 or 12 late in the progression, it HURTS!
However, if you have rolls with no 2/3/11/12, and don't hit any numbers, your net is back to where you started.
Based on that,...
I'd say that it might actually work on a crapless table... EXCEPT... Sooner or later, you're gonna get on such a good roll that you will either not be able to cover the next come bet, or you'll exceed the table limit.Quote: SONBP2....would crapless craps make any difference since it would avoid losing on the 2 or 12?
When that happens, you're in big trouble if the 7-out hits.
Bottom line, this is just a system of hedges.
The Wiz' Ten Commandments states, 7. Thou shalt not hedge thy bets, for a good reason.
Quote: SONBP2Why? The system is subject only to the house edge of the 2/12 if I don't lose my money on the 2/12 then why would the house edge be greater.
I understand I am not onto something new here and I am sure someone has lost playing some form of this system before. I am just not seeing how crapless craps wouldn't have a 0% house edge. Table limits are a concern but once you hit that profit point you just let everything ride and be happy with the profit you have made.
How are you going to hit the profit point if you keep putting all your winnings back out on the table? Work through a few scenarios on paper and try to find one where your system captures a profit *before* the seven-out.
This is no different than betting $5 on blackjack and continueing to double until you win.
The house edge is built into every bet since it is entirely possible for you to run out of money before you get a win. While not likely, the times this would occur the loss would be substantial. While the times you win you are only winning 1 unit every sequence. So one bad streak can wipe out dozens of wins, which is where you get to the 5% house edge it seems on crapsless craps.
Having trouble with the math but I think with a roll of 20 or so in a row with no 7, which is not even close to impossible, you will be having comes bets in the 10k+ range if not 100k+. Depends a lot on the sequence. In the end you will win with your 300k bet when the 7 out occurs, but you just won $5.
Quote: SONBP2Thanks for the post DJTeddyBear....would crapless craps make any difference since it would avoid losing on the 2 or 12?
Never been to a crapless craps table so I don't know how high table limits are there. From personal experience I have seen very wide high limits on regular craps tables.
Four Winds Casino in Michigan had $5min--$10,000max about a year ago.
Crapless craps kills you because the house advantage on the Pass Line bet is much higher. Consider that you said that you "don't lose" on the 2 or 12--but in reality, you still lose 5/6 of the time on a comeout 2 or 12 anyway. You don't lose on a comeout 3--but you still lose eventually 2/3 of the time. But they take away 2/3 of your wins on a comeout 11--you now win only 1/3 of the time, not 100% of the time--and that's a crusher.
I think he meant that the table limits might be higher - not the edge.Quote: SONBP2Why? The system is subject only to the house edge of the 2/12 if I don't lose my money on the 2/12 then why would the house edge be greater.
For the sake of argument, I'm gonna continue the progression I started above, but play it on a crapless table.
...
You now have $60 on the 8, $5 on 6, $45 on 9.
$110 come. Your bankroll is $810.
7 out. You win $110, plus can take back the $100 bet. Your bankroll is $1,020. Ignore this line.
Roll is 3.
You now have $110 on 3, $5 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
$220 come. Your bankroll is $590.
Roll is 6. You win $5. Bankroll is $595.
You now have $110 on 3, $220 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
$445 come. Bankroll is $150.
If you 7-out, you win $445, get your $445 come bet back, for a bankroll of $1,040. Fourty bucks. Woo hoo!
The roll is 6 - the BEST number that could have hit. It pays $220. Bankroll is $370.
You now have $110 on 3, $445 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
Your next come bet should be $660. You're $290 short. What do you do?
Ya know what? When you rolled a 3 above, you could have easily been on a regular table and rolled a 4, 5, or 10 for the exact same results.
This system is NOT like blackjack though where you keep doubling b/c eventually you have all numbers covered and will receive some return and then your next bet would not be double.
Consider this:
Pass line $5. Come out roll is 4
Come Bet $5. Roll 5.
Come Bet $10. Roll 6.
Come Bet $20. Roll 8.
Come Bet $40. Roll 9.
Come Bet $80. Roll 10. Total Amount Bet $160.
Come Bet $160. Roll ?? There is the possibility that could walk to the table with $500 and play the system if the shooter was hitting the numbers, b/c the next bet you would either be paid, lose with 2,3,12, or 7-out and break even.
Thanks for all the comments.
Quote: SONBP2Thanks for all the info. I obviously knew you would lose eventually, but I just wasn't seeing the math. I do think $1,000 bankroll is pretty limited for serious craps players and I think this system is a good as any others. I believe the Wizard stated that the average shooter throws an average of 6x before the 7, so the system could keep you around long enough to be at the table when a good roll occurs.
This system is NOT like blackjack though where you keep doubling b/c eventually you have all numbers covered and will receive some return and then your next bet would not be double.
Consider this:
Pass line $5. Come out roll is 4
Come Bet $5. Roll 5.
Come Bet $10. Roll 6.
Come Bet $20. Roll 8.
Come Bet $40. Roll 9.
Come Bet $80. Roll 10. Total Amount Bet $160.
Come Bet $160. Roll ?? There is the possibility that could walk to the table with $500 and play the system if the shooter was hitting the numbers, b/c the next bet you would either be paid, lose with 2,3,12, or 7-out and break even.
Thanks for all the comments.
A New Strategy for Craps Fans: What the Computer Says
25 September 2002
Alan Krigman
Most betting systems have been around for a long time.
The one proposed in this thread can be found:
http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/articles/5620.html
And a WinCraps auto bet file can be found here:
KRIGCOME.BET (20th file from top)
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm
Hey, even Stacy Friedman (MathExtremist) has a few auto-bet files posted at the WinCraps website.
Here are the comments from the WinCraps file"
' This system plays Passline and Come bets without odds
' It starts with a $5 Passline bet. Subsequent bets are made on Come or
' Passline and are equal in size to the total of Passline and established
' Come bets which are already on the table. For instance, if a $5 Passline, a
' $5 Come 4, and a $10 Come 8 bet are already established, then the next bet
' on the Come will be $20 (5+5+10)
' This system is proposed by gaming writer Alan Krigman in an article found at:
' http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/articles/5620.html
I have run sims using the WC file and you either win big, bust out or come out even.
His article explains expected results
Quote: MathExtremistWork through a few scenarios on paper and try to find one where your system captures a profit *before* the seven-out.
And a WinCraps auto bet file can be found here:
KRIGCOME.BET (20th file from top)
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm
Hey, even Stacy Friedman (MathExtremist) has a few auto-bet files posted at the WinCraps website.
I found the chart at the bottom very interesting in that you could expect wins over $250 about 44% of the time and losses over $250 less than 7% of the time. This is gambling and I am in it to win big when I play craps. A smart gambler knows that there is nothing you can do in craps to change the house edge, leaving out any arguments from controlled shooters, but the chances to walk away with a very good profit give this system some value.
Thanks for the info I had not seen that article before today.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI think he meant that the table limits might be higher - not the edge.
For the sake of argument, I'm gonna continue the progression I started above, but play it on a crapless table.
...
You now have $60 on the 8, $5 on 6, $45 on 9.
$110 come. Your bankroll is $810.
7 out. You win $110, plus can take back the $100 bet. Your bankroll is $1,020. Ignore this line.
Roll is 3.
You now have $110 on 3, $5 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
$220 come. Your bankroll is $590.
Roll is 6. You win $5. Bankroll is $595.
You now have $110 on 3, $220 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
$445 come. Bankroll is $150.
If you 7-out, you win $445, get your $445 come bet back, for a bankroll of $1,040. Fourty bucks. Woo hoo!
The roll is 6 - the BEST number that could have hit. It pays $220. Bankroll is $370.
You now have $110 on 3, $445 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
Your next come bet should be $660. You're $290 short. What do you do?
Ya know what? When you rolled a 3 above, you could have easily been on a regular table and rolled a 4, 5, or 10 for the exact same results.
On the 7-out, I got the impression that you would just sit there and wait for the bets to come down. You won, and now you have free money sitting out there, no real reason you have to protect it.
That said, the same issue occurs if you just continue the roll longer and never 7-out.
Quote: guido111And a WinCraps auto bet file can be found here:
KRIGCOME.BET (20th file from top)
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm
Hey, even Stacy Friedman (MathExtremist) has a few auto-bet files posted at the WinCraps website.
Huh? MathExtremist is Stacy??? Hi, Stacy! I remember your Low-EV hedge system from rec.gambling.craps. I have the krigcome.bet file, dated March 2004, and I may have written it, but I can't remember. I also ran several different simulations with it, using different bankrolls and bet levels. They ran between 20 and 30% winning sessions, lots of busts of a $2000 bankroll. I actually still have all my old autobet and games-log files, can you believe that?
I wonder how many RCG alumni we have here, posting under pseudonyms? The "Midnight Skulker" is posting on the Craps Forum (crapsforum.com).
It just occurred to me that I forgot that when a come bet wins, you not only get paid, but since there is a new come bet of different amount, you're getting the original come bet too.
So my math was completely wrong.
But that doesn't mean that I change my mind about the concept in general...
Here's my new math:
Quote: SONBP2Pass line $5. Come out roll is 4
Come Bet $5. Roll 5.
Come Bet $10. Roll 6.
Come Bet $20. Roll 8.
Come Bet $40. Roll 9.
Come Bet $80. Roll 10. Total Amount Bet $160.
Come Bet $160. Roll ??
If you started with $1,000, you bankroll is $680.
If the next roll is a 10, you win $80, plus get the $80. The 10 becomes $160, so your new come bet is $240. Bankroll is 680+80+80-240=$600
If the next roll is a 6, you win $10, plus get the $10. The 6 becomes $240. Your new come bet is $470. Bankroll is 600+10+10-470=$150
What's the table maximum? Seems like you're getting close to the limit and/or running out of bankroll.
If you 7-out at this point, you've got 150+470+470=$1,090.
Still not great.
Quote: guido111And a WinCraps auto bet file can be found here:
KRIGCOME.BET (20th file from top)
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm
I knew this looked familiar. As I recall, the behavior is that you win 1 unit for every repeated number thrown before the 7-out, as long as you don't hit the table limit first. The risk on normal craps is the crap rolls; the risk on crapless is hitting the limit much more quickly than normal.
I played around with it on the Wiz's simulator and it's a lot of fun. If you don't simply bust out fast, the biggest problem is that on a long roll, you will soon have way more on the numbers than the max bet you're allowed on the come. So you end up way over-exposed to a seven.
But his results table for a large sample session was interesting.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI take back most of what I wrote in this thread.
It just occurred to me that I forgot that when a come bet wins, you not only get paid, but since there is a new come bet of different amount, you're getting the original come bet too.
So my math was completely wrong.
But that doesn't mean that I change my mind about the concept in general...
Here's my new math:
If you started with $1,000, you bankroll is $680.
If the next roll is a 10, you win $80, plus get the $80. The 10 becomes $160, so your new come bet is $240. Bankroll is 680+80+80-240=$600
If the next roll is a 6, you win $10, plus get the $10. The 6 becomes $240. Your new come bet is $470. Bankroll is 600+10+10-470=$150
What's the table maximum? Seems like you're getting close to the limit and/or running out of bankroll.
If you 7-out at this point, you've got 150+470+470=$1,090.
Still not great.
At the Stratosphere Casino all craps tables (including crapless) had a $2,000 limit, but that seems low, but at some point you do just have to take a chance that he is going to roll some numbers and you are going to make some money. It is gambling so you know you could (will) lose at some point.
Quote: goatcabinHuh? MathExtremist is Stacy??? Hi, Stacy! I remember your Low-EV hedge system from rec.gambling.craps.
Hi Alan. Yes, I picked this handle because, as I recall, someone from r.g.c. tried to taunt me with it once. I thought it was apropos. I've almost forgotten about that hedge, too - wasn't it something like 16 don't, 5 pass, then take odds to get the middle after a point is established? It's been a really long time. I'm still playing the shotgun, though. I'm still strictly a low-stakes player, but I had a decent run in Vegas last month, up a few hundred. We'll see what happens in two weeks when I go back for G2E...
Quote: ChuckIt is the "reverse martingale" from Krigman's article.
I played around with it on the Wiz's simulator and it's a lot of fun. If you don't simply bust out fast, the biggest problem is that on a long roll, you will soon have way more on the numbers than the max bet you're allowed on the come. So you end up way over-exposed to a seven.
But his results table for a large sample session was interesting.
Why keep matching what is on the table? At some point you have won, you have a profit, you don't need to put so much money at risk.
Quote: SONBP2Why keep matching what is on the table? At some point you have won, you have a profit, you don't need to put so much money at risk.
I remember being at a Casino Night Party a few years ago and tried this Krigman Come system.
When you roll an 11 with a large come bet, I would then stop making any more bets, Let the remaining ones ride out.
Sometimes you were all in and had to wait for a decent hit or beg for that 7 out so you could start all over before your bankroll ran out!
Funny how starting from a $5 bet can get to real high bets very quickly.
Quote: SONBP2Why keep matching what is on the table? At some point you have won, you have a profit, you don't need to put so much money at risk.
Are you sure that's true?
Quote: MathExtremistHi Alan. Yes, I picked this handle because, as I recall, someone from r.g.c. tried to taunt me with it once. I thought it was apropos. I've almost forgotten about that hedge, too - wasn't it something like 16 don't, 5 pass, then take odds to get the middle after a point is established?
Yes, that was it. BTW, there is still a bit of activity on RGC. John Kerr is still stuck there with his WebTV, I guess. He said he tried to register at crapsforum.com but couldn't. Mr. V still posts there occasionally, as does Van Lewis (Midnight Skulker). Still mostly spam, though.
Quote: MathExtremistIt's been a really long time. I'm still playing the shotgun, though. I'm still strictly a low-stakes player, but I had a decent run in Vegas last month, up a few hundred. We'll see what happens in two weeks when I go back for G2E...
I was up in Reno a few weeks ago for three days with my friend Paul. We also did quite well, playing $5 pass with varying odds, up to 10X at Sands Regency. My friend also made a lot of hardways and yo bets. Because we were lucky, he won a lot more than I did, playing more conservatively. Vegas is not a good option for me, but I can drive to Reno in under three hours, and I am retired now, so I can go mid-week. We left Monday, stayed two nights and came back Wednesday. I think I posted a trip report.
Cheers,
Alan
Quote: MathExtremistAre you sure that's true?
Yes that is true. Consider the following good roll:
Pass line $5. Roll 5
Come $5. Roll 10
Come $10. Roll 3 (-$10)
Come $10. Roll 11 (Even)
Come $10. Roll 4
Come $20. Roll 9
Come $40. Roll 4 ($20 back into bankroll, $10bet/$10profit)
Come $70. Roll 9 ($40 back into bankroll, $20bet/$20profit)
Come $120. Roll 5 ($10 back into bankroll, $5bet/$5profit)
Come $235. Roll 9 ($140 back into bankroll, $70bet/$70profit)
Come $400. Roll 6
Come $800. Roll 6 ($800 back into bankroll, $400bet/$400profit)
At this point you have $1,010.00 in chips in front of you $10.00 profit. But you have $5 on the 10, $120 on the 5, and $800 on the 6. You could stop betting and hope that a 5 or 6 hit and if they do walk away with a decent profit for 20min of work.
Thus, my question of why keep matching? This was a simulated roll on the WizardofOdds craps game. If you 7-out at this point you had a huge rush with lots of money on the table and paid for gas with your $10.00 profit.
Quote: SONBP2
Thus, my question of why keep matching? This was a simulated roll on the WizardofOdds craps game. If you 7-out at this point you had a huge rush with lots of money on the table and paid for gas with your $10.00 profit.
The reason why you have to keep making larger come bets and pass line bets is for when the 7 rolls. That makes all you did a push unless you had a natural come or a come point winner.
The next come or pass line bet is always the total of all the other bets on the table.
A 7out is "welcomed" as it starts the sequence of bets all over again and keeps you away from running out of bankroll without making that next big bet..
It is a fun but crazy way to play!
In all three cases I restarted with $1,000, and my initial bet was $1.
In all three cases, there was at least one point where I did not have enough money for the next come bet, but, fortunately, did not 7-out on that next bet.
In all three cases, when I finally DID 7-out, there was a HUGE profit of between $500 and $1,000.
This actually does sound promising, but it would require several key conditions:
1 - A VERY large bankroll. I estimate 2,000 times the minimum bet. Maybe more.
2 - A table with a maximum at least 1,000 times the minimum.
3 - A CRAPLESS table.
FYI: In one case, there was one point where I had already turned a profit, and had enough money to cover the next bet, but that bet would have exceeded the table max. I believe the system needs a slight adjustment. If a shooter becomes profitable, reduce the next come bet.
But it IS interesting, and promising...
Quote: DJTeddyBear
This actually does sound promising, but it would require several key conditions:
1 - A VERY large bankroll. I estimate 2,000 times the minimum bet. Maybe more.
2 - A table with a maximum at least 1,000 times the minimum.
3 - A CRAPLESS table.
But it IS interesting, and promising...
Go to the WinCraps site and download the Krigcome.bet file and you can also download for free the Crapless Craps (NeverCraps)version.
And a WinCraps auto bet file can be found here:
KRIGCOME.BET (20th file from top)
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm
I have been playing with the Crapless Craps version this morning and it does take the wild swings away. But then you can not win on an 11 on the come out roll or for a come winner.
The software is $20 for WinCraps to have all features active, like the Hyper-Drive to run many sessions. And WinCraps does all the math for you. Stats up the a**.
and only $6 for CrapLess Craps after you get the licence for WinCraps.
WinCraps is for Windows so for all you Macs, just get a cheep computer to run the program.
The BIG drawback with this system is how fast you run out of bankroll with very large bets and ALL your bets are contract bets. You can not call them off or take them down. Hard to lock up a profit and start over.
Quote: guido111The BIG drawback with this system is how fast you run out of bankroll with very large bets and ALL your bets are contract bets. You can not call them off or take them down. Hard to lock up a profit and start over.
Yeah, I noticed both of those as big drawbacks when I tried it out on the Wizard of Odds' craps simulator. Those bets all being contract bets are killer!
On the other hand - what about doing the same betting, except with the Don't Pass and Don't Come? Neither of those are contract bets - obviously because the odds are in your favor past the come out roll - but if you're looking for a way to just back off once you're happy with your profits, would that be a way to do it?
The only question is if your bankroll could survive all those come out rolls...
It doesn't work on a Mac.Quote: guido111Go to the WinCraps site ...
That's why I said "If a shooter becomes profitable, reduce the next come bet." In my brief test, There always was a point where the shooter became profitable, before I ran out of money or hit the table max.Quote: guido111The BIG drawback with this system is how fast you run out of bankroll ... Hard to lock up a profit and start over.
Quote: DJTeddyBearIt doesn't work on a Mac.
That's why I said "If a shooter becomes profitable, reduce the next come bet." In my brief test, There always was a point where the shooter became profitable, before I ran out of money or hit the table max.
I believe I have been saying that from the beginning. At some point there is a profit point and you could do one of 2 things, let everything ride and place no more bets and be happy with what you have already won or lower your next come/pass bet so that if he keeps rolling numbers you still have money in action that will continue show an increase in profit.
In the article that has been quoted several times, I am trying to figure out the math on how this isn't at least a break even game if you were playing crapless craps. The article states that 46% of the time you win over $250 and less than 7% of the time you lose over $250. What about setting a loss amount of $2,000 and a win amount $2,500, if either happens you walk away. Now you would have to factor in walking away at times when you are down a little, up a little, or at the breaking even, but if that is a wash then as systems go this seems very promising, I understand we aren't overcoming the house edge, nothing we do will change that, but with crapless craps I am not concerned with what I should be getting paid on thebets because all my bets are covered by the next come/pass bet so I will take the even money.
Quote: DJTeddyBear
That's why I said "If a shooter becomes profitable, reduce the next come bet." In my brief test, There always was a point where the shooter became profitable, before I ran out of money or hit the table max.
At regular craps that will not always happen because you will lose come bets, and many large ones, to the Crap #s.
But you are right. Once up with a shooter, back out of your bets or make no come bets until a few have won.
You end up winning a $5 and $10 come bet, can not make the required come bet, table limit and bankroll got you, and then the 7 out. Ouch!! And a few Craps #s along the way.
The CrapLess Craps version is much better.
I do not like the 5.38 HA on the pass/come bets. That will come into play the longer you play.
I will run some sims later and post the results if there are any surprises.
Can't you Mac users run a dual boot or something to run Windows and windows programs.
WinCraps is great for only $20 to run simulations. Many bet files have already been created by others that are free from the website.
Quote: IbeatyouracesMy simple craps strategy...... never play it......or any game with a full disadvantage.
and you forgot to mention how playing Blackjack, with card counting, is a guaranteed way to win.
Playing BJ IS gambling.
Sooner or later your bankroll will run out of money
or
You will hit the table limit
Remove #2 and you are left with the possible situation were you are betting billions of dollars are extremely unlucky roll. The shooter that rolls 40-50 time before 7-out will decimate you. Depending on the rolls you may have hit a profit somewhere in there. However if it goes something like 2/3/4/5/6/8/9/10/11/12 and repeats, there is no win that will ever give you a profit, you are simply putting too much out there for any number to pay you off that much. Granted, it may take an extremely rare situation, but the situation still exists. You win small amounts on 99%+ of situations and you lose everything on .05% of situations.
Quote: SONBP2Why keep matching what is on the table? At some point you have won, you have a profit, you don't need to put so much money at risk.
"At some point you have won"
That's by no means certain.
In this scheme, you are putting the same amount on the Come as you have on the numbers, really as a method of hedging. If a seven comes, you lose everything on the numbers, but get paid on the come, so it's a wash.
But sooner or later, you have $1,000 on the numbers, and put $1,000 on the come, and the number comes up a five. You win whatever you HAD on the five, but now your $1,000 come bet goes there. You may or may not be in a profit at that point (probably not if you count what's still on the table).
You've got more than $1,000 on the numbers but you can only bet $1,000 on the come for the next roll.
Like Krigman said, it takes B.O.S. to play this scheme the way it needs to be played.
Quote: ChuckLike Krigman said, it takes B.O.S. to play this scheme the way it needs to be played.
Bushels Of Stupidity?
Balls Of Steel?Quote: mkl654321Bushels Of Stupidity?Quote: ChuckLike Krigman said, it takes B.O.S. to play this scheme the way it needs to be played.
Nah. Bushels Of Stupidity makes more sense.
Quote: mkl654321Quote: ChuckLike Krigman said, it takes B.O.S. to play this scheme the way it needs to be played.
Bushels Of Stupidity?
Bandolier of Carrots?
Quote: SONBP2In the article that has been quoted several times,
I am trying to figure out the math on how this isn't at least a break even game if you were playing crapless craps.
The article states that 46% of the time you win over $250 and less than 7% of the time you lose over $250.
You can only figure out the math by running simulations.
The simulations Mr. Krigman ran were:
"The computer ran two million separate "hands" from come-out through seven-out, for a $5 base bet.
No bounds were placed on wins or losses; "seven out, line away, take the Comes" was the only exit criterion."
The key is "separate hands".
1 7-out...NEXT!
New shooter, new bankroll.
It was not done as a style of constant play.
Crapless Craps simulation results will be coming soon. I'm still finishing up my plans for my trip to Europe.
Quote: SONBP2...but with crapless craps I am not concerned with what I should be getting paid on the bets because all my bets are covered by the next come/pass bet so I will take the even money.
They are only covered until you hit the table limit or run out of bankroll.
So far just playing Crapless Craps in WinCraps, that happens quite often with a $2000 bankroll, even a $5K bankroll.
Quote: SONBP2I am trying to figure out the math on how this isn't at least a break even game if you were playing crapless craps.
The article states that 46% of the time you win over $250 and less than 7% of the time you lose over $250.
My WinCraps sims show the following results for Crapless Craps. $2K bankroll, $2K max bet.
Krigman's simulations had 2 different max bets, $1k and $2.5K, I chose $2000 max bet since the Stratosphere here in Vegas has Crapless Craps with a $2K max bet.
I added a bankroll to also make it more realistic. No one has an unlimited bankroll these days.
52.37% win hands
34.55% broke-even hands
13.08% lost hands
27% of all lost hands was the $2000 bankroll
4.78% win>$250
11.98% lost>$250
Avg hand 7.84 rolls, Mode:2, High:70 rolls (mode is the most common outcome)
Mean -61.34
Mean on a win hand $35.68, Mode:$100
Highest win was $37,285
The reason Crapless Craps "performs" worse than regular craps is there is no way to win a come bet or pass line bet with an 11.
That shoots the HA to 5.3824%
Regular Craps Pass Line House Edge is 1.414%
Crapless Craps house edge on the pass line is 3.8 times HIGHER than regular craps.
It would be nice to have $2K bankroll to throw away and give it a try at a Crapless Craps table.
I got my kicks doing it in WinCraps and kept the wife happy!
Quote: guido111
It would be nice to have $2K bankroll to throw away and give it a try at a Crapless Craps table.
I got my kicks doing it in WinCraps and kept the wife happy!
Just bet the pass line at regular craps, take odds. Any progression betting should be on the odds bet.
That would be more fun.
Crapsless Craps is Crap no matter how you bet it.
