I know that there are great math minds on this forum. What is the minimum amount of rolls that you would use to prove a system wrong? Also can anyone direct me to where there are real rolls recorded outside of the book of 7500?

I thought the 35,000+ actual dice rolls from the Zumma Craps System tester book was the standard to go by.Quote:Mikey75I like craps and I enjoy seeing how different systems do. Thomas Midgley authored the book 7500 craps rolls which is considered by most to be the go to book for testing craps systems.

super!Quote:Mikey75I was contacted by a poster (on another forum not here) who stated he was earning over 100k a year on the craps tables. He gave me his system to test against the book.

it totally depends on how accurate you want to be.Quote:Mikey75What is the minimum amount of rolls that you would use to prove a system wrong?

say within 50% or

40% accurate.

25%

10%

1%

.01%

almost infinite possibilities abound

in other words,

the more accurate one wants to be, the more rolls required

I mentioned another craps system tester book. I have in a WinCraps Dice Roll file too.Quote:Mikey75Also can anyone direct me to where there are real rolls recorded outside of the book of 7500?

Sally

Sally

Thanks for all that info Sally. I knew I could count on you!! You have Zumma craps tester book in a WinCraps file?? Is that available somewhere?? Thanks again for your reply. I greatly appreciate it!!

Quote:RomesMore than 7500... a lot more. And if you post the "system" we'll tell you how much -EV per hour it is =).

I know it's -EV. It's got to be!! I've never put a system through this book and it be close to being up. Most are way down in the first 1000 rolls.

I think it's funny that the same website that is selling the Zumma system tester is also selling "winning systems" with it.

it should be in my online folder that can be found in my blog hereQuote:Mikey75Is that available somewhere?? Thanks again for your reply. I greatly appreciate it!!

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/mustangsally/blog/#post1094

I made sure it opened in WinCraps.

You have to download it first

as it it for WinCraps Classic

it may go right into Pro with no troubles

I did not look

have funs!

Sally

Quote:Mikey75

I think it's funny that the same website that is selling the Zumma system tester is also selling "winning systems" with it.

Pretty common knowledge, that the Zumma book is a darksiders dream. I would imagine most don't systems would work. If you have pass systems that work on Zumma, let us know!!

Always looking for different craps plays, and hey, who knows: maybe there really IS something new under the sun.

But I seriously doubt it.

Quote:mustangsallyit should be in my online folder that can be found in my blog here

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/mustangsally/blog/#post1094

I made sure it opened in WinCraps.

You have to download it first

as it it for WinCraps Classic

it may go right into Pro with no troubles

I did not look

have funs!

Sally

Thanks Sally. I hope to have some time to play around with it this weekend. I never got around to downloading the newer version of wincraps so it should work fine for me.

For this asking for the system I did promise the guy I got it from that I wouldn't post it publicly. I still think it's a bad way to play and that you would ultimately lose your backside playing it. I will say it incorporates two of the better bets on the craps table and two of the worst.

really?Quote:DeMangoPretty common knowledge, that the Zumma book is a darksiders dream. I would imagine most don't systems would work.

I do not see that one

the dice rolls and results do not point to that conclusion

I used the complete set as in the book too, not any edited versions that exist

in Excel

I see there are more comeout rolls than expected

35,097 rolls

(557/165)

10,635 come out rolls

ev=10,396.8

but the total pass is only down about 16 decisions to be right at ev

total pass ev=5,242.3

actual=5,226

diff=(16.3)

the point winners are off by only 17

Hmmm...

what a dream!

for sure

have funs again!

Sally

yes, I found more to dream about.Quote:DeMangoPretty common knowledge, that the Zumma book is a darksiders dream.

Interesting results

(I need to look more for any errors, I did not at first see any)

Bankroll/bets/$$$ are in units

so -72 would be -$72 betting at $1 level

-$360 at $5 level

dpass 0x Lay odds

dpass 1x Lay odds

dpass 2x Lay odds

dpass 345x Lay odds

dpass 5x Lay odds

dpass 10x Lay odds

dpass and dcome every roll with 345x lay odds

(and I see why this happened when the distribution of set points is looked at)

Sally

Quote:Mikey75I like craps and I enjoy seeing how different systems do. Thomas Midgley authored the book 7500 craps rolls which is considered by most to be the go to book for testing craps systems. I was contacted by a poster (on another forum not here) who stated he was earning over 100k a year on the craps tables. He gave me his system to test against the book. Stupidest thing I think I've ever seen. However after putting it through the book of 7500 I'm up. No where near 100k up but I'm up. I've tested a lot of systems and played around with a lot of methods. I'm positive NOTHING can beat the house long term.

I know that there are great math minds on this forum. What is the minimum amount of rolls that you would use to prove a system wrong? Also can anyone direct me to where there are real rolls recorded outside of the book of 7500?

Depends on the system and the level of confidence you want.

For instance, if someone says they can flip a coin on heads at a rate of 51%+, are you going to accept 10 rolls? What about 1,000? 10,000? 1 million? The more coin flips he does, the more likely the results are going to be around what they should be.

Now let’s say someone says they can flip a coin accurately onto heads at a rate of 80%+. After 100 flips, you’re going to have a pretty good feeling if the guy is full of s*** or not. After 1,000 you’ll be damn near certain.

If we’re talking craps, well, what’s the system? Does he play $5 PL, then if he loses he does $5 PL + $5 odds? And loses he goes to $5 PL + $10 odds....then $5 + $25....then $5 + $55....then $5 + $100....then he goes to $10 PL + odds....? If that’s the case, you’re going to need a lot of rolls. (TBH, this is probably the best “system” to use if you’re a system player [not that you are], even though it’s still a loser, it’s probably the smallest loser.)

Or if the guy just flat bets $10 every roll (or only on certain rolls he bets $10, the rest of the time he bets $0), you’re not going to need too many rolls.

So for how many rolls you need, it depends on the system and how confident you want to be in your claim that the system works or doesn’t work.

The alternative, of course, is to use math and logic. Simply add up the expected win or loss per roll. If that number is negative, it’s a losing system. If it’s positive, it’s a winning system. An example is card counting (done properly) — the sum of EVs will be positive. Whereas in craps, the sum will be negative (unless you can find some reason for why any bet should be +EV on a craps table, and there might be, if there’s a promotion or something, but at that point, the system doesn’t matter, you’re playing a +EV promotion).

Quote:RSDepends on the system and the level of confidence you want.

For instance, if someone says they can flip a coin on heads at a rate of 51%+, are you going to accept 10 rolls? What about 1,000? 10,000? 1 million? The more coin flips he does, the more likely the results are going to be around what they should be.

Now let’s say someone says they can flip a coin accurately onto heads at a rate of 80%+. After 100 flips, you’re going to have a pretty good feeling if the guy is full of s*** or not. After 1,000 you’ll be damn near certain.

If we’re talking craps, well, what’s the system? Does he play $5 PL, then if he loses he does $5 PL + $5 odds? And loses he goes to $5 PL + $10 odds....then $5 + $25....then $5 + $55....then $5 + $100....then he goes to $10 PL + odds....? If that’s the case, you’re going to need a lot of rolls. (TBH, this is probably the best “system” to use if you’re a system player [not that you are], even though it’s still a loser, it’s probably the smallest loser.)

Thanks RS!! Your absolutely correct the system you outlined, while still a loser, loses less than anything I've ever seen. Thanks for confirming that!!

Quote:MrVDon't be a craps tease, Mikey: what is the system?

Always looking for different craps plays, and hey, who knows: maybe there really IS something new under the sun.

But I seriously doubt it.

Every once in a while I see a shorter couple playing craps at the Brantford casino. They play 6,8 and nothing else and they always have their chip tray filled with about 500 in green, red, white chips. I never see them lose. It's not really a regular move but they each play 18.00 on 6, 8 and push their bet to 30 after winning. I can tell it's probably a system they follow because they still bet 18.00 even when the table minimum is $5.00

My poison of play is different from many others. I only play during the come out roll and only lay every box number 4,5,6,8,9,10

I lose on one number but I win on all 6 as long as the 7 gets rolled on come out.

I admit I don't get rich from this but it works for me.

Quote:MichaelBluejayI know this is an old thread, but Mikey75, if you want the system to be tested properly, send it to me and I'll run a computer simulation, same as I did here for another WoV member.

Now you are digging up year old threads from a member who hasn’t visited in over 3 months to promote your site.

Honestly Mods, at what point is this spam?

Quote:WatchMeWinIf everyone knows that craps is not beatable, then why would you buy the book?

People buy it out of hope. I've actually seen a book with system(s) for winning the lottery.

I've said it before and I'll say it again; if there was a system to beat craps I'd have found it by now :-)