Mikey75
Mikey75
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March 15th, 2018 at 1:41:04 PM permalink
I like craps and I enjoy seeing how different systems do. Thomas Midgley authored the book 7500 craps rolls which is considered by most to be the go to book for testing craps systems. I was contacted by a poster (on another forum not here) who stated he was earning over 100k a year on the craps tables. He gave me his system to test against the book. Stupidest thing I think I've ever seen. However after putting it through the book of 7500 I'm up. No where near 100k up but I'm up. I've tested a lot of systems and played around with a lot of methods. I'm positive NOTHING can beat the house long term.

I know that there are great math minds on this forum. What is the minimum amount of rolls that you would use to prove a system wrong? Also can anyone direct me to where there are real rolls recorded outside of the book of 7500?
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 15th, 2018 at 2:16:08 PM permalink
Quote: Mikey75

I like craps and I enjoy seeing how different systems do. Thomas Midgley authored the book 7500 craps rolls which is considered by most to be the go to book for testing craps systems.

I thought the 35,000+ actual dice rolls from the Zumma Craps System tester book was the standard to go by.
Quote: Mikey75

I was contacted by a poster (on another forum not here) who stated he was earning over 100k a year on the craps tables. He gave me his system to test against the book.

super!
Quote: Mikey75

What is the minimum amount of rolls that you would use to prove a system wrong?

it totally depends on how accurate you want to be.
say within 50% or
40% accurate.
25%
10%
1%
.01%
almost infinite possibilities abound

in other words,
the more accurate one wants to be, the more rolls required
Quote: Mikey75

Also can anyone direct me to where there are real rolls recorded outside of the book of 7500?

I mentioned another craps system tester book. I have in a WinCraps Dice Roll file too.

Sally
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Mikey75
Mikey75
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March 15th, 2018 at 2:20:41 PM permalink
I mentioned another craps system tester book. I have in a WinCraps Dice Roll file too.

Sally



Thanks for all that info Sally. I knew I could count on you!! You have Zumma craps tester book in a WinCraps file?? Is that available somewhere?? Thanks again for your reply. I greatly appreciate it!!
Romes
Romes
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March 15th, 2018 at 2:22:05 PM permalink
More than 7500... a lot more. And if you post the "system" we'll tell you how much -EV per hour it is =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Mikey75
Mikey75
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March 15th, 2018 at 2:40:37 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

More than 7500... a lot more. And if you post the "system" we'll tell you how much -EV per hour it is =).



I know it's -EV. It's got to be!! I've never put a system through this book and it be close to being up. Most are way down in the first 1000 rolls.

I think it's funny that the same website that is selling the Zumma system tester is also selling "winning systems" with it.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 15th, 2018 at 4:15:16 PM permalink
Quote: Mikey75

Is that available somewhere?? Thanks again for your reply. I greatly appreciate it!!

it should be in my online folder that can be found in my blog here
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/mustangsally/blog/#post1094

I made sure it opened in WinCraps.

You have to download it first
as it it for WinCraps Classic
it may go right into Pro with no troubles
I did not look
have funs!
Sally
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WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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March 15th, 2018 at 4:32:43 PM permalink
If everyone knows that craps is not beatable, then why would you buy the book?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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March 15th, 2018 at 4:35:20 PM permalink
I am not afraid to say that millions of rolls are really what you want
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
dglscorrigan
dglscorrigan
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March 15th, 2018 at 4:47:27 PM permalink
The number of necessary rolls to prove a dice system is INFINITY +1.
DeMango
DeMango
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March 15th, 2018 at 7:27:53 PM permalink
Quote: Mikey75


I think it's funny that the same website that is selling the Zumma system tester is also selling "winning systems" with it.


Pretty common knowledge, that the Zumma book is a darksiders dream. I would imagine most don't systems would work. If you have pass systems that work on Zumma, let us know!!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
MrV
MrV
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March 15th, 2018 at 7:38:11 PM permalink
Don't be a craps tease, Mikey: what is the system?

Always looking for different craps plays, and hey, who knows: maybe there really IS something new under the sun.

But I seriously doubt it.
"What, me worry?"
Mikey75
Mikey75
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March 15th, 2018 at 8:14:19 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

it should be in my online folder that can be found in my blog here
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/mustangsally/blog/#post1094

I made sure it opened in WinCraps.

You have to download it first
as it it for WinCraps Classic
it may go right into Pro with no troubles
I did not look
have funs!
Sally



Thanks Sally. I hope to have some time to play around with it this weekend. I never got around to downloading the newer version of wincraps so it should work fine for me.
Mikey75
Mikey75
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March 15th, 2018 at 8:18:53 PM permalink
I know that I don't have anything that is groundbreaking. It just happened to preform well for the rolls that I have. If Zumma is a dark siders dream then I doubt it makes it very far against it because it doesn't incorporate dark side play.

For this asking for the system I did promise the guy I got it from that I wouldn't post it publicly. I still think it's a bad way to play and that you would ultimately lose your backside playing it. I will say it incorporates two of the better bets on the craps table and two of the worst.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 15th, 2018 at 8:36:10 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Pretty common knowledge, that the Zumma book is a darksiders dream. I would imagine most don't systems would work.

really?
I do not see that one

the dice rolls and results do not point to that conclusion
I used the complete set as in the book too, not any edited versions that exist



in Excel


I see there are more comeout rolls than expected
35,097 rolls
(557/165)
10,635 come out rolls
ev=10,396.8

but the total pass is only down about 16 decisions to be right at ev
total pass ev=5,242.3
actual=5,226
diff=(16.3)

the point winners are off by only 17
Hmmm...

what a dream!
for sure

have funs again!
Sally
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mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 16th, 2018 at 9:12:48 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Pretty common knowledge, that the Zumma book is a darksiders dream.

yes, I found more to dream about.
Interesting results
(I need to look more for any errors, I did not at first see any)

Bankroll/bets/$$$ are in units
so -72 would be -$72 betting at $1 level
-$360 at $5 level

dpass 0x Lay odds


dpass 1x Lay odds


dpass 2x Lay odds


dpass 345x Lay odds


dpass 5x Lay odds


dpass 10x Lay odds


dpass and dcome every roll with 345x lay odds


(and I see why this happened when the distribution of set points is looked at)
Sally
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alphastorm
alphastorm
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March 20th, 2018 at 9:23:43 PM permalink
You don't want to know the system. It's a stupid hedging play that is very high -EV.
RS
RS
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March 21st, 2018 at 12:19:45 AM permalink
Quote: Mikey75

I like craps and I enjoy seeing how different systems do. Thomas Midgley authored the book 7500 craps rolls which is considered by most to be the go to book for testing craps systems. I was contacted by a poster (on another forum not here) who stated he was earning over 100k a year on the craps tables. He gave me his system to test against the book. Stupidest thing I think I've ever seen. However after putting it through the book of 7500 I'm up. No where near 100k up but I'm up. I've tested a lot of systems and played around with a lot of methods. I'm positive NOTHING can beat the house long term.

I know that there are great math minds on this forum. What is the minimum amount of rolls that you would use to prove a system wrong? Also can anyone direct me to where there are real rolls recorded outside of the book of 7500?


Depends on the system and the level of confidence you want.

For instance, if someone says they can flip a coin on heads at a rate of 51%+, are you going to accept 10 rolls? What about 1,000? 10,000? 1 million? The more coin flips he does, the more likely the results are going to be around what they should be.

Now letís say someone says they can flip a coin accurately onto heads at a rate of 80%+. After 100 flips, youíre going to have a pretty good feeling if the guy is full of s*** or not. After 1,000 youíll be damn near certain.


If weíre talking craps, well, whatís the system? Does he play $5 PL, then if he loses he does $5 PL + $5 odds? And loses he goes to $5 PL + $10 odds....then $5 + $25....then $5 + $55....then $5 + $100....then he goes to $10 PL + odds....? If thatís the case, youíre going to need a lot of rolls. (TBH, this is probably the best ďsystemĒ to use if youíre a system player [not that you are], even though itís still a loser, itís probably the smallest loser.)

Or if the guy just flat bets $10 every roll (or only on certain rolls he bets $10, the rest of the time he bets $0), youíre not going to need too many rolls.



So for how many rolls you need, it depends on the system and how confident you want to be in your claim that the system works or doesnít work.



The alternative, of course, is to use math and logic. Simply add up the expected win or loss per roll. If that number is negative, itís a losing system. If itís positive, itís a winning system. An example is card counting (done properly) ó the sum of EVs will be positive. Whereas in craps, the sum will be negative (unless you can find some reason for why any bet should be +EV on a craps table, and there might be, if thereís a promotion or something, but at that point, the system doesnít matter, youíre playing a +EV promotion).
Mikey75
Mikey75
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March 21st, 2018 at 7:34:23 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Depends on the system and the level of confidence you want.

For instance, if someone says they can flip a coin on heads at a rate of 51%+, are you going to accept 10 rolls? What about 1,000? 10,000? 1 million? The more coin flips he does, the more likely the results are going to be around what they should be.

Now letís say someone says they can flip a coin accurately onto heads at a rate of 80%+. After 100 flips, youíre going to have a pretty good feeling if the guy is full of s*** or not. After 1,000 youíll be damn near certain.


If weíre talking craps, well, whatís the system? Does he play $5 PL, then if he loses he does $5 PL + $5 odds? And loses he goes to $5 PL + $10 odds....then $5 + $25....then $5 + $55....then $5 + $100....then he goes to $10 PL + odds....? If thatís the case, youíre going to need a lot of rolls. (TBH, this is probably the best ďsystemĒ to use if youíre a system player [not that you are], even though itís still a loser, itís probably the smallest loser.)



Thanks RS!! Your absolutely correct the system you outlined, while still a loser, loses less than anything I've ever seen. Thanks for confirming that!!
Laymedown
Laymedown
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March 23rd, 2018 at 10:24:22 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Don't be a craps tease, Mikey: what is the system?

Always looking for different craps plays, and hey, who knows: maybe there really IS something new under the sun.

But I seriously doubt it.



Every once in a while I see a shorter couple playing craps at the Brantford casino. They play 6,8 and nothing else and they always have their chip tray filled with about 500 in green, red, white chips. I never see them lose. It's not really a regular move but they each play 18.00 on 6, 8 and push their bet to 30 after winning. I can tell it's probably a system they follow because they still bet 18.00 even when the table minimum is $5.00
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
DeMango
DeMango
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March 23rd, 2018 at 11:34:55 AM permalink
Speaking of 6&8 plays, our old friend Varmenti has come up with some great press moves over on GamblersForum. Nice to see him posting again, still playing at Fallsview.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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March 23rd, 2018 at 11:38:33 AM permalink
If you are getting good rolls at the time you are playing on the tables, then basically any way you play is going to be a winning session... unless you are on the dont side. But if the table is not rolling a lot of numbers, then those mentioned systems go out the window. The true challenge is finding a way to come away from the tables consistently and often , time after time with far greater W's than L's in both sessions and dollar value.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Laymedown
Laymedown
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Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChange
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:50:36 AM permalink
This is true. when a table get's hot, there is no stopping anyone from making money on anything they bet.

My poison of play is different from many others. I only play during the come out roll and only lay every box number 4,5,6,8,9,10
I lose on one number but I win on all 6 as long as the 7 gets rolled on come out.

I admit I don't get rich from this but it works for me.
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
Laymedown
Laymedown
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March 23rd, 2018 at 11:56:53 AM permalink
Links?
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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September 16th, 2019 at 12:28:47 PM permalink
I know this is an old thread, but Mikey75, if you want the system to be tested properly, send it to me and I'll run a computer simulation, same as I did here for another WoV member.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
Boz
Boz
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September 16th, 2019 at 12:36:59 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

I know this is an old thread, but Mikey75, if you want the system to be tested properly, send it to me and I'll run a computer simulation, same as I did here for another WoV member.



Now you are digging up year old threads from a member who hasnít visited in over 3 months to promote your site.

Honestly Mods, at what point is this spam?
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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Thanks for this post from:
Boz
September 16th, 2019 at 3:55:06 PM permalink
I'm gonna win $67K laying all those numbers on my come-out 7's at a $10K table. Might have to put $107K on the table first though.
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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September 16th, 2019 at 4:28:04 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

If everyone knows that craps is not beatable, then why would you buy the book?



People buy it out of hope. I've actually seen a book with system(s) for winning the lottery.

I've said it before and I'll say it again; if there was a system to beat craps I'd have found it by now :-)
The best things in life are not free.

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