Lucca3927
Lucca3927
Joined: Aug 5, 2017
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February 22nd, 2018 at 9:59:02 AM permalink
Hi. Does the wizard still have an outstanding offer for a long term mathematical system that can beat the house? I have one that works on paper although it is not practical and the casinos would probably not allow it.
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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February 22nd, 2018 at 10:16:17 AM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

Hi. Does the wizard still have an outstanding offer for a long term mathematical system that can beat the house? I have one that works on paper although it is not practical and the casinos would probably not allow it.



It does not work on paper. You need new paper. But seriously, you probably either misinterpretted the rules of the challenge or miscalculated. Lay out your system and I will tell you which one. It won't be difficult.
Lucca3927
Lucca3927
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February 22nd, 2018 at 10:52:16 AM permalink
Ok. You and a buddy go to a casino and play craps, offsetting each other. Now, for the sake of argument, let's say that you can remove the variance without enough rolls because, of course, you can't stand there and play 1 million of them.

If you represent yourself, and bet, like a big enough fish you can negotiate a discount with the casino based on your losses. If you get, say a 10% rebate then after a multiple of 36 rolls, as a team you've lost one unit. If you then apply your discount on losses then that loss is overridden by the discount and you have a higher gross amount then what you started with.

Now, you need to be a high roller with another high roller (or a few smaller friends/bettors) to pull this stunt off and the casinos will catch on pretty quick and toss you (it seems to obvious not to have been tried) but it is sound math.

Of course, without a buddy and no discount on losses the math behind the rules will eventually hunt you down and make the kill (just so you know that I do understand the underlying math of the game).
Last edited by: Lucca3927 on Feb 22, 2018
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2018 at 11:16:45 AM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

Ok. You and a buddy go to a casino and play craps, offsetting each other. Now, for the sake of argument, let's say that you can remove the variance without enough rolls because, of course, you can't stand there and play 1 million of them.

If you represent yourself, and bet, like a big enough fish you can negotiate a discount with the casino based on your losses. If you get, say a 10% rebate then after a multiple of 36 rolls, as a team you've lost one unit. If you then apply your discount on losses then that loss is overridden by the discount and you have a higher gross amount then what you started with.

Now, you need to be a high roller with another high roller (or a few smaller friends/bettors) to pull this stunt off and the casinos will catch on pretty quick and toss you (it seems to obvious not to have been tried) but it is sound math.

Of course, without a buddy and no discount on losses the math behind the rules will eventually hunt you down and make the kill (just so you know that I do understand the underlying math of the game).

You are not even close to the first person to think of this and you won't be the last. It can be done playing other games as well. Someone already tried this angle here.

The system has to beat the GAME itself NOT THE CASINO.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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February 22nd, 2018 at 11:19:30 AM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

Ok. You and a buddy go to a casino and play craps, offsetting each other. Now, for the sake of argument, let's say that you can remove the variance without enough rolls because, of course, you can't stand there and play 1 million of them.

If you represent yourself, and bet, like a big enough fish you can negotiate a discount with the casino based on your losses. If you get, say a 10% rebate then after a multiple of 36 rolls, as a team you've lost one unit. If you then apply your discount on losses then that loss is overridden by the discount and you have a higher gross amount then what you started with.

Now, you need to be a high roller with another high roller (or a few smaller friends/bettors) to pull this stunt off and the casinos will catch on pretty quick and toss you (it seems to obvious not to have been tried) but it is sound math.

Of course, without a buddy and no discount on losses the math behind the rules will eventually hunt you down and make the kill (just so you know that I do understand the underlying math of the game).



The challenge does not include comps or loss rebates. The Wiz would not deny the possibility of those promotions allowing a positive expectation.
Lucca3927
Lucca3927
Joined: Aug 5, 2017
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February 22nd, 2018 at 11:23:47 AM permalink
Well, like I said, the system probably lacks originality and the math, without outside aid, will get you in the end.
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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February 22nd, 2018 at 12:14:40 PM permalink
I don't totally rule it out but I don't want to go back and forth about the rules for 100 messages and then you bail when it is time to put up the challenge money.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
billryan
billryan 
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February 22nd, 2018 at 12:21:57 PM permalink
Could you please recap the challenge?
michael99000
michael99000
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February 22nd, 2018 at 12:40:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I don't totally rule it out but I don't want to go back and forth about the rules for 100 messages and then you bail when it is time to put up the challenge money.



Are you saying the $10k challenge does allow for casino loss rebates to be part of the persons “system”?

I thought that guy don Johnson had already showed that blackjack can be beat when rebates are involved
darkoz
darkoz
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February 22nd, 2018 at 12:48:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I don't totally rule it out but I don't want to go back and forth about the rules for 100 messages and then you bail when it is time to put up the challenge money.



If it includes rebates and promos then both i and several people on here have probably won the challenge already
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee

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