Lucca3927
Lucca3927
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February 22nd, 2018 at 9:59:02 AM permalink
Hi. Does the wizard still have an outstanding offer for a long term mathematical system that can beat the house? I have one that works on paper although it is not practical and the casinos would probably not allow it.
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
SOOPOO
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February 22nd, 2018 at 10:16:17 AM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

Hi. Does the wizard still have an outstanding offer for a long term mathematical system that can beat the house? I have one that works on paper although it is not practical and the casinos would probably not allow it.



It does not work on paper. You need new paper. But seriously, you probably either misinterpretted the rules of the challenge or miscalculated. Lay out your system and I will tell you which one. It won't be difficult.
Lucca3927
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February 22nd, 2018 at 10:52:16 AM permalink
Ok. You and a buddy go to a casino and play craps, offsetting each other. Now, for the sake of argument, let's say that you can remove the variance without enough rolls because, of course, you can't stand there and play 1 million of them.

If you represent yourself, and bet, like a big enough fish you can negotiate a discount with the casino based on your losses. If you get, say a 10% rebate then after a multiple of 36 rolls, as a team you've lost one unit. If you then apply your discount on losses then that loss is overridden by the discount and you have a higher gross amount then what you started with.

Now, you need to be a high roller with another high roller (or a few smaller friends/bettors) to pull this stunt off and the casinos will catch on pretty quick and toss you (it seems to obvious not to have been tried) but it is sound math.

Of course, without a buddy and no discount on losses the math behind the rules will eventually hunt you down and make the kill (just so you know that I do understand the underlying math of the game).
Last edited by: Lucca3927 on Feb 22, 2018
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2018 at 11:16:45 AM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

Ok. You and a buddy go to a casino and play craps, offsetting each other. Now, for the sake of argument, let's say that you can remove the variance without enough rolls because, of course, you can't stand there and play 1 million of them.

If you represent yourself, and bet, like a big enough fish you can negotiate a discount with the casino based on your losses. If you get, say a 10% rebate then after a multiple of 36 rolls, as a team you've lost one unit. If you then apply your discount on losses then that loss is overridden by the discount and you have a higher gross amount then what you started with.

Now, you need to be a high roller with another high roller (or a few smaller friends/bettors) to pull this stunt off and the casinos will catch on pretty quick and toss you (it seems to obvious not to have been tried) but it is sound math.

Of course, without a buddy and no discount on losses the math behind the rules will eventually hunt you down and make the kill (just so you know that I do understand the underlying math of the game).

You are not even close to the first person to think of this and you won't be the last. It can be done playing other games as well. Someone already tried this angle here.

The system has to beat the GAME itself NOT THE CASINO.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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February 22nd, 2018 at 11:19:30 AM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

Ok. You and a buddy go to a casino and play craps, offsetting each other. Now, for the sake of argument, let's say that you can remove the variance without enough rolls because, of course, you can't stand there and play 1 million of them.

If you represent yourself, and bet, like a big enough fish you can negotiate a discount with the casino based on your losses. If you get, say a 10% rebate then after a multiple of 36 rolls, as a team you've lost one unit. If you then apply your discount on losses then that loss is overridden by the discount and you have a higher gross amount then what you started with.

Now, you need to be a high roller with another high roller (or a few smaller friends/bettors) to pull this stunt off and the casinos will catch on pretty quick and toss you (it seems to obvious not to have been tried) but it is sound math.

Of course, without a buddy and no discount on losses the math behind the rules will eventually hunt you down and make the kill (just so you know that I do understand the underlying math of the game).



The challenge does not include comps or loss rebates. The Wiz would not deny the possibility of those promotions allowing a positive expectation.
Lucca3927
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February 22nd, 2018 at 11:23:47 AM permalink
Well, like I said, the system probably lacks originality and the math, without outside aid, will get you in the end.
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
Wizard
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February 22nd, 2018 at 12:14:40 PM permalink
I don't totally rule it out but I don't want to go back and forth about the rules for 100 messages and then you bail when it is time to put up the challenge money.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
billryan
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February 22nd, 2018 at 12:21:57 PM permalink
Could you please recap the challenge?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
michael99000
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February 22nd, 2018 at 12:40:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I don't totally rule it out but I don't want to go back and forth about the rules for 100 messages and then you bail when it is time to put up the challenge money.



Are you saying the $10k challenge does allow for casino loss rebates to be part of the persons “system”?

I thought that guy don Johnson had already showed that blackjack can be beat when rebates are involved
darkoz
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February 22nd, 2018 at 12:48:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I don't totally rule it out but I don't want to go back and forth about the rules for 100 messages and then you bail when it is time to put up the challenge money.



If it includes rebates and promos then both i and several people on here have probably won the challenge already
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2018 at 1:18:25 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

If it includes rebates and promos then both i and several people on here have probably won the challenge already

For 10% betting on both sides?

I have no doubt The Wizzard knows damn well a loss rebate can have a positive EV.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
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February 22nd, 2018 at 1:21:07 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

For 10% betting on both sides?

I have no doubt The Wizzard knows damn well a loss rebate can have a positive EV.



I have no doubt also

But his comment was curious

Perhaps he didnt read the post with the actual description of the system
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2018 at 3:07:23 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz



But his comment was curious

I agree, I would be surprised if he didn't read the post carefully, especially when it comes to his challenge/offer involving lots of money.

Perhaps it has something to do the number of units the OP is claiming?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
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February 22nd, 2018 at 3:16:47 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I agree, I would be surprised if he didn't read the post carefully, especially when it comes to his challenge/offer involving lots of money.

Perhaps it has something to do the number of units the OP is claiming?



The more i think about it the more i suspect he didnt see the second post the challenger made

If u post an answer your response can leap you forward in the thread. Its something that annoys me to no end as i suddenly realize i missed two pages
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Laymedown
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March 27th, 2018 at 11:34:46 PM permalink
This similar thing was done on digital craps where high rollers would cash in on the points. 1 point for every $20.00 bet, 100 Points = 10.00 cash If you max bet 1000.00 on both sides of the game so each betting side would pay a $10.00 cash bonus on the players card every two rolls.

The key thing is to win 40 rolls in a row while avoiding the twelve (Not necessarily betting one roll after the other)

You can not bet both sides of the PL/DP or C/DC on the same machine any more but two people can play this on those new bubble craps machines.

The dice setters use specific rolls at the tables to avoid a couple sevens from being made in the their throw. Maybe if they use a dice set to avoid rolling the TWELVE CRAP, this can be so do'able.

Question? Is it easier to roll a TWELVE using 2 DICE or is it easier to roll ANY TRIPLE on 3 DICE? Or what are the odds of being able to clock a wheel at a SINGLE 0 ROULETTE machine playing RED or BLACK?

What about betting with MATCH PLAY COUPONS Betting both sides?

Now the million dollar question "How does the taxes work on winning in the USA? Here in Canada you win 100% you keep 100% no taxes.
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
Wizard
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March 28th, 2018 at 5:30:37 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Are you saying the $10k challenge does allow for casino loss rebates to be part of the persons “system”?



No.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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March 28th, 2018 at 5:32:55 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I have no doubt The Wizzard knows damn well a loss rebate can have a positive EV.



Of course. My challenge can involve only negative EV bets.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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March 28th, 2018 at 8:22:39 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Are you saying the $10k challenge does allow for casino loss rebates to be part of the persons “system”?



None of the people who have offered up such challenges here would include a loss rebate. Quite the contrary, the Wiz and others have repeatedly shown that using a loss rebate can make many games that are inherently -EV into +EV opportunities. They even have given methods to bet which will maximize the +EV.
SOOPOO
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March 28th, 2018 at 8:22:48 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Are you saying the $10k challenge does allow for casino loss rebates to be part of the persons “system”?



None of the people who have offered up such challenges here would include a loss rebate. Quite the contrary, the Wiz and others have repeatedly shown that using a loss rebate can make many games that are inherently -EV into +EV opportunities. They even have given methods to bet which will maximize the +EV.
SOOPOO
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March 28th, 2018 at 8:23:09 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Are you saying the $10k challenge does allow for casino loss rebates to be part of the persons “system”?



None of the people who have offered up such challenges here would include a loss rebate. Quite the contrary, the Wiz and others have repeatedly shown that using a loss rebate can make many games that are inherently -EV into +EV opportunities. They even have given methods to bet which will maximize the +EV.
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