Can't Prove This Strategy Wrong Baccarat-Modified Martingale

Okay, to start, I know all betting stems are garbage.
I'm dying to find out how to prove this one wrong.
I've done a few thousands hands online and I didn't prove it wrong and my fingers hurt.

It's a modified Martingale
Here it goes

- Baccarat bet on banker every time
- Ignore ties, focus on resolved hands.
- Table limit goes from 15 - 15,000, 8 Decks
- Bankroll 26,875
-After a win revert back to Bet 1
- After a loss go to the next Bet 1,2,3 ect..
- EXCEPT for Bet 9. When Bet 9 loses use winnings to restart at Bet 1 and follow the process again. When Bet 9 wins STILL restart at Bet 1.
- 5% Com.


TOTAL LOSS AMOUNT
Bet 1 $15 ----- 15
Bet 2 $35 ----- 50
Bet 3 $100 ----- 150
Bet 4 $225 ----- 375
Bet 5 $500 ----- 875
Bet 6 $1200 ----- 2075
Bet 7 $2800 ----- 4875
Bet 8 $7000 ----- 11875
Bet 9 $15000 ----- 26875

TOTAL WIN AMOUNTS BY HAND AFTER COM. and PRIOR LOSES
Bet 1 $15 ----- 14.25
Bet 2 $35 ----- 18.25
Bet 3 $100 ----- 45
Bet 4 $225 ----- 63.75
Bet 5 $500 ----- 100
Bet 6 $1200 ----- 265
Bet 7 $2800 ----- 585
Bet 8 $7000 ----- 1775
Bet 9 $15000 -----2375

Is this strategy simply too complicated to prove wrong?

In my super small and proves nothing couple thousand hands the winnings earned outweighed the losses when Bet 9 loses.
Does the wizard provide access to his software anywhere where he tests a billion-ish hands?

HOW DO I PROVE THIS DOESN'T WORK!! ? It's killing me :(

Besides playing it, you mean?
If you know all systems are garbage, then isn't it a given that this one is?
This one looks like it will work okay as long as you don't lose nine or ten in a row.
Forewarned is forearmed.

the chances of losing ten in a row are not so far out there as you seem to think. At least it looks to me that your system here is no more complicated than that.

if it was flipping a coin, there's one chance in 1024 you'd get, say, heads. The chances of 10 bankers would not be as likely only somewhat and I don't care to look it up.

If you were testing this out, you'd reach a thousand bets soon enough. A rule of thumb is if you reach such a denominator the chances that it has occurred are at least as good as 50-50

1. Simply put, when you play a game at a disadvantage, you are expecting to lose. If some game has a 4% HE, you can expect to lose 4% on every bet. You can't add up a bunch of negative numbers and somehow get a positive number. To make a more simple comparison, imagine playing a coin flip game where you are paid $99 per $100 you bet. If it's heads, you win $99. If it's tails, you lose $100. On average, you lose $0.50. You can't add up a bunch of $0.50 losses and somehow get a net winner.


2. https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/1000-baccarat-shoes-8-deck.txt

Run your system against that. Chances are, it's almost certainly going to come out a loser.

3. Do the same thing as #2, except come up with your own random numbers. BTW: Be sure to use actual random numbers.

4. Similar to #1, but determine how often banker wins vs loses (ignore ties), and do the math to see how frequently you'll win or lose X amount per "round" (a "round" being where you start at your min bet and play until you win a hand or until you lose the biggest bet [at #9?]). I'd go here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/

Win rate for banker while ignoring ties is 0.458597/(0.458597+0.446247) = 0.50682438077

Player is 1-0.50682438077 = 0.49317561922


50.68..% of the time you'll win $14.25.
0.5068*0.4931 of the time you'll win $18.25
0.5068*0.4931*0.4931 of the time you'll win $45
....etc.
Then 0.4931..^9 of the time you'll lose $26,875.
Then multiply the winning amount by how often you win that, and the losing amount with how often you lose that, then add up all those numbers, and whatever that final number is, will be how much you expect to win/lose (it'll be a lose) per round.

Quote: RS

1. Simply put, when you play a game at a disadvantage, you are expecting to lose.

But the martingaler thinks he can erase a loss every time if he had the guts , except for an astronomically rare chance of bad luck. He can't see that it is actually a likely if not probable chance of bad luck.

It gains a mystical aura by returning the bankroll to even when it works. That it is just a way of betting more when a player is losing becomes lost in the aura.

Quote: iwinthebet

HOW DO I PROVE THIS DOESN'T WORK!! ? It's killing me :(

this is easy in Excel

0.493175619^9=0.001725895
prob of 1 win = 0.998274105 <<<<sweet!!!

or about 1 in 580 attempts you have -$26,875 =loss

579 times you win on average $43.06

579* 43.06=$24931.74= win

win + loss = -$1,943.26

average loss per round = -3.397979895
p(win)=0.506824381
q(loss)=0.493175619

hand	bet	cum loss	Banker 5% comm	net win on win	q^(hand-1)*p	E*F(return)	win given win prob	avg win on win
1	15	0	0.75	14.25	0.506824381	7.222247426	0.507700619	7.234733817
2	35	15	1.75	18.25	0.249953428	4.561650058	0.250385567	4.569536599
3	100	50	5	45	0.123270937	5.547192145	0.123484057	5.556782568
4	225	150	11.25	63.75	0.06079422	3.875631555	0.060899326	3.882332052
5	500	375	25	100	0.029982227	2.998222732	0.030034063	3.003406296
6	1200	875	60	265	0.014786504	3.918423434	0.014812068	3.925197914
7	2800	2075	140	585	0.007292343	4.266020674	0.007304951	4.273396107
8	7000	4875	350	1775	0.003596406	6.383620279	0.003602624	6.394656785
9	15000	11875	750	2375	0.00177366	4.212441676	0.001776726	4.219724477
10	no bet	26875	.	-26875	0.001725895	-46.38342987	.	43.05976662
.	.	.	.	total	1	-3.397979895	0.998274105	.

Here is my fast excel in Google
check it over if you wish for any erors
https://goo.gl/avPyod

sure fun playing that way, until you know
that impossible
Player win of 9 in a row. Casino rip-off for sure!!

Sally