Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
• Posts: 53
January 24th, 2018 at 8:59:28 PM permalink
Recently I have been playing Baccarat using a bet selection that consists of 4 strings of 4.
The 4 strings of 4 I use are:
XXXX
XYXY
XYYX
XXYY
*I bet every hand (after the first 3 hands, I'll explain why next)
*I look what the past 3 hands have been to decide what my next bet will be.
Example 1) if the last 3 hands have been XXX (meaning either BBB or PPP) I will bet for a fourth to hit playing my XXXX string.
Example 2) if the last 3 hands have been BPB, I will bet for a P to hit using my XYXY string.

In my trials so far it appears that the difference between wins and losses at the end of shoe are less than betting either always player or always banker for the same amount of hands.

Would anybody be able to confirm or disprove this for me?

Cheers
Dan
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5552
January 25th, 2018 at 7:34:39 AM permalink
The possible outcomes looking at strings of 4 are:

XXXX
XXXY
XXYX
XXYY
XYXX
XYXY
XYYX
XYYY
YXXX
YXXY
YXYX
YXYY
YYXX
YYXY
YYYX
YYYY

Your 4 "strings" are contained in the possible random outcome (of course) but you don't have more than 25% of the possible result set. So when you see "XXX" on the last 3, you think you should bet "X"... but why, there are other completely plausible outcomes, such as XXXY, or perhaps the XXX you see is the ending part of YXXX. Do you see how you are just "guessing" all the same still and the previous results don't tell you that you "should" bet X or Y because both are plausible?

Your results are purely random until you have a large enough sampling size to prove anything. Go play this for 1,000,000 hands and report back with crystal clear results and you'll find that the math of the game works out exactly the same. (don't do this you'll lose A LOT OF MONEY)... So NO, picking a subset of 4 of the possible 16 "4 string" results does not change or affect the odds in ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 5369
January 25th, 2018 at 8:54:43 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Your 4 "strings" are contained in the possible random outcome (of course) but you don't have more than 25% of the possible result set.

You misunderstand his strategy; since "X" can be player or banker, then, for example, YYYY and XXXX are the same (in fact, each of the eight Y sets is the same as the X set generated by replacing Ys with Xs and Xs with Ys). Also, what he showed was the first three results, and what his next bet would be.
If the first result is P, there are only four sets of results for the next two:
1. PP (XXX) - bet P (XXXX)
2. BP (XYX) - bet B (XYXY)
3. BB (XYY) - bet P (XYYX)
4. PB (XXY) - bet B (XXYY)
If the first result is B, then switch Bs and Ps.

The strategy can further be simplified to this:
If the last two non-tied hands had the same result, bet the same as the result from three hands ago;
If they were different, bet the opposite of the result from three hands ago.
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
January 25th, 2018 at 10:41:34 AM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

In my trials so far it appears that the difference between wins and losses at the end of shoe are less than betting either always player or always banker for the same amount of hands.

How many trials?

in other words you want 3 methods of bet selection based on B and P result sequences ONLY
compared per shoe.

1 Method (see 1,2,3-BET)
BBB-B
PPP-P

PBP-B
BPB-P

BPP-B
PBB-P

BBP-P
PPB-B

2 Method
always bet Player

3 Method
always bet Banker

I think this has been already done many times
by many so I won't bore with my results here.

what I do have is my opinion on B or P bet selection.
Without considering card removal and the changing probabilities of Banker and Player
bleeck!!
ok
yuck!

of course if any bet selection method makes one feel better and think something is better
then it is better.
That is better-super!
******
I sampled 10 million 8 deck Bacc shoes and have this table of data

Banker wins minus (-) Player wins per shoe

stats show on average 0.93 more Banker wins

looks like the top 2 are 0 and -1
0 means equal Banker and Player wins (difference of 0)
-1 means 1 more Player win than Banker win
(no method of bet selection)

differencecountcount/10million
04708760.0470876
-14641590.0464159
34619440.0461944
14528700.045287
24401940.0440194
54320530.0432053
-34212250.0421225
44085270.0408527
-24076850.0407685
63923050.0392305
-53859880.0385988
-43819980.0381998
73577130.0357713
83408370.0340837
-63289470.0328947
-72987580.0298758
92916040.0291604
102727970.0272797
-82582350.0258235
112398530.0239853
-92352780.0235278
122201010.0220101
-102135610.0213561
-111822230.0182223
131802800.018028
-121520110.0152011
141513580.0151358
151321950.0132195
-131292230.0129223
-141025170.0102517
161009930.0100993
17839630.0083963
-15774110.0077411
-16654320.0065432
18554420.0055442
-17522270.0052227
19484450.0048445
-18444700.004447
20360140.0036014
-19317160.0031716
-20312710.0031271
21248440.0024844
22247380.0024738
-21177940.0017794
23177760.0017776
-22120200.001202
25104350.0010435
-23104260.0010426
2497030.0009703
-2458120.0005812
-2546530.0004653
-2646360.0004636
2642740.0004274
-2738590.0003859
2926970.0002697
2823250.0002325
-2919270.0001927
3019250.0001925
-2811670.0001167
3211600.000116
3111530.0001153
-307730.0000773
-317700.000077
274110.0000411
3350.0000005
-3240.0000004
3440.0000004
-3420.0000002
3520.0000002
3720.0000002
-3810.0000001
-3310.0000001
3810.0000001
4010.0000001

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
• Posts: 53
January 25th, 2018 at 4:31:16 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The strategy can further be simplified to this:
If the last two non-tied hands had the same result, bet the same as the result from three hands ago;
If they were different, bet the opposite of the result from three hands ago.

Ok great that makes it easier to play.
Yeh just a fun way to pick which side to bet on, and so far it seems to not have as wild of swings as just betting either player or banker, but I would be interested to look into that further.
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
• Posts: 53
January 25th, 2018 at 4:37:26 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

******
I sampled 10 million 8 deck Bacc shoes and have this table of data

Banker wins minus (-) Player wins per shoe

stats show on average 0.93 more Banker wins

looks like the top 2 are 0 and -1
0 means equal Banker and Player wins (difference of 0)
-1 means 1 more Player win than Banker win
(no method of bet selection)

differencecountcount/10million
04708760.0470876
-14641590.0464159
34619440.0461944
14528700.045287
24401940.0440194
54320530.0432053
-34212250.0421225
44085270.0408527
-24076850.0407685
63923050.0392305
-53859880.0385988
-43819980.0381998
73577130.0357713
83408370.0340837
-63289470.0328947
-72987580.0298758
92916040.0291604
102727970.0272797
-82582350.0258235
112398530.0239853
-92352780.0235278
122201010.0220101
-102135610.0213561
-111822230.0182223
131802800.018028
-121520110.0152011
141513580.0151358
151321950.0132195
-131292230.0129223
-141025170.0102517
161009930.0100993
17839630.0083963
-15774110.0077411
-16654320.0065432
18554420.0055442
-17522270.0052227
19484450.0048445
-18444700.004447
20360140.0036014
-19317160.0031716
-20312710.0031271
21248440.0024844
22247380.0024738
-21177940.0017794
23177760.0017776
-22120200.001202
25104350.0010435
-23104260.0010426
2497030.0009703
-2458120.0005812
-2546530.0004653
-2646360.0004636
2642740.0004274
-2738590.0003859
2926970.0002697
2823250.0002325
-2919270.0001927
3019250.0001925
-2811670.0001167
3211600.000116
3111530.0001153
-307730.0000773
-317700.000077
274110.0000411
3350.0000005
-3240.0000004
3440.0000004
-3420.0000002
3520.0000002
3720.0000002
-3810.0000001
-3310.0000001
3810.0000001
4010.0000001

Sally

I find these results very hard to believe as generally either the total banker or player wins by approx 5 hands over the shoe, occassionally it is even, occassionally there is a large difference of 10 or more but on average it is usually around 5 🤔
Dan
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 15308
January 25th, 2018 at 5:11:43 PM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

I find these results very hard to believe as generally either the total banker or player wins by approx 5 hands over the shoe, occassionally it is even, occassionally there is a large difference of 10 or more but on average it is usually around 5 🤔
Dan

If Sally says it, my experience is that you can take it to the bank. Perhaps more appropriately, you can take it to the Baccarat table. Or, better not to take it to the Baccarat table.

You find the results to be very hard to believe because you want them to be very hard to believe. Her simulation is of more Baccarat hands than have likely been played (in total) than the total of physical Baccarat hands played in all of recorded history.

I'll take her simulation, not to mention her genius. Quite frankly, I wish I had it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
• Posts: 53
January 25th, 2018 at 11:51:12 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

If Sally says it, my experience is that you can take it to the bank. Perhaps more appropriately, you can take it to the Baccarat table. Or, better not to take it to the Baccarat table.

You find the results to be very hard to believe because you want them to be very hard to believe. Her simulation is of more Baccarat hands than have likely been played (in total) than the total of physical Baccarat hands played in all of recorded history.

I'll take her simulation, not to mention her genius. Quite frankly, I wish I had it.

Thanks haha yes I agree that Sally is usual pretty much spot on, though this one I do find very hard to believe, although I am very happy if it is correct :)