Roulette Wheel Bias Theory vs Practice
December 9th, 2017 at 7:46:49 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfCan you explain what you mean by that?
I took it to mean the data could be made up or something like that.
I meant like it came from a fishy wheel.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 9th, 2017 at 8:03:14 PM
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Bnitty,
I can tell you if your wheel is biased or not. I need to know the make and model though. A PM is fine. I'm quite familiar with the assembly and design flaws that cause bias. For many years I made a very healthy living playing biased wheels. I'll freely give you my opinion.
Contrary to popular believe most (but not all) biased wheels can be spotted/detected on sight. Usually in less than a minute. However determining the numbers on which to bet requires detailed tracking.
Looking at your wheel, it's mediocre at best. Most casinos have at least one wheel like yours. However if you can determine the possible bias cause then you could likely increase the edge by determining the best playing conditions. For example, the optimum rotor speeds and ball. If you can't determine the bias cause then I can suggest the correct data collection needed to narrow down the likely cause. (For example, try tracking the point of impact of the ball on the rotor at each spin for various wheel speeds. Your possible bias is likely the result of a defective servo or wobble.)
Determining bias is not really about collecting lots of raw data numbers or running obscure tests like Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. That's terribly inefficient. That's not how it's really done. Yes you need data collection, and lots of it, but you need more detailed data and you need to be able to limit the degrees of freedom being tested. Otherwise you're left to look for "humps" in raw "washed out" data and massive out of sample tests.
-Keyser
I can tell you if your wheel is biased or not. I need to know the make and model though. A PM is fine. I'm quite familiar with the assembly and design flaws that cause bias. For many years I made a very healthy living playing biased wheels. I'll freely give you my opinion.
Contrary to popular believe most (but not all) biased wheels can be spotted/detected on sight. Usually in less than a minute. However determining the numbers on which to bet requires detailed tracking.
Looking at your wheel, it's mediocre at best. Most casinos have at least one wheel like yours. However if you can determine the possible bias cause then you could likely increase the edge by determining the best playing conditions. For example, the optimum rotor speeds and ball. If you can't determine the bias cause then I can suggest the correct data collection needed to narrow down the likely cause. (For example, try tracking the point of impact of the ball on the rotor at each spin for various wheel speeds. Your possible bias is likely the result of a defective servo or wobble.)
Determining bias is not really about collecting lots of raw data numbers or running obscure tests like Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. That's terribly inefficient. That's not how it's really done. Yes you need data collection, and lots of it, but you need more detailed data and you need to be able to limit the degrees of freedom being tested. Otherwise you're left to look for "humps" in raw "washed out" data and massive out of sample tests.
-Keyser
Last edited by: Keyser on Dec 10, 2017
December 10th, 2017 at 5:41:53 AM
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Quote: KeyserContrary to popular believe most (but not all) biased wheels can be spotted/detected on sight. Usually in less than a minute.
That's the type of bold claim that requires some additional details. Care to expand on how this can be done?
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
December 10th, 2017 at 11:43:15 AM
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Quote: TumblingBonesThat's the type of bold claim that requires some additional details. Care to expand on how this can be done?
Ok, as an example. Huxley Mark 4,5,6 with traditional pockets. A common cause of bias on these models was a loose pocket pad/insert. Using the overhead light reflections bouncing off the pads I could usually spot these biased wheels in just a few rotations of the wheel. In other words in less than a minute. The light pointed to the anomaly that would then be confirmed with tracking to determine if it had an uneven amount of glue below it causing a negative bias, or an air bubble/ loose insert causing a strong positive bias.
December 16th, 2017 at 10:05:42 PM
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This just got more interesting. More details to come.
December 22nd, 2017 at 12:33:11 PM
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Quote: BnittyThis just got more interesting. More details to come.
What do you mean?
January 19th, 2018 at 10:35:21 PM
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Thanks to the forum for so much information. It was definitely more help than I expected. I will take the advice for gathering data as many suggested but also considering the time commitment of the endeavor, at some point, one must consider the ROI of the undertaking and seriously consider the worth of the exercise.
I did identify that's this location does have two identical wheels that are swapped at some frequency that only the casino knows. As time permits, I will compile data on the second wheel and hope to identify any inconsistencies. It could be a nice result to show some bias that may be exploited but it's likely that this excercise will not produce any results that can be exploited.
I did identify that's this location does have two identical wheels that are swapped at some frequency that only the casino knows. As time permits, I will compile data on the second wheel and hope to identify any inconsistencies. It could be a nice result to show some bias that may be exploited but it's likely that this excercise will not produce any results that can be exploited.
January 20th, 2018 at 8:52:49 AM
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That sounds much more interesting. How do you know they are swapping them out if they are identical? Is that what your data is leading you to believe, or have you seen them doing this? If you have seen them swapping out wheels...how many times have you noticed this, and in what timeframe? Perhaps Zcore or someone can shed some light on this. I have never seen or heard of this, but to be fair, I don't pay much attention to roulette. I would think with all the casino employees we have had here someone would have seen their casino doing this. Not to mention all the people who frequently play in the pit.Quote: Bnitty
I did identify that's this location does have two identical wheels that are swapped at some frequency that only the casino knows.
I would assume the reason a casino would swap out a wheel is for maintenance reasons. If other casinos are not using this method I would start to wonder if there are some shenanigans going on at this casino.
Conspiracy theorist believe the casino's gaff stuff just before big events, certain holidays and even on the weekends. I would see if there is some connection there.
Can you tell us the approximate location and size of this casino?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 20th, 2018 at 8:55:11 AM
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Generally speaking, large casinos regularly rotate wheel heads between tables.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
January 20th, 2018 at 8:59:16 AM
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Why?Quote: QFITGenerally speaking, large casinos regularly rotate wheel heads between tables.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 20th, 2018 at 10:14:43 AM
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Because wheels become bias.
It's common for casinos to rotor wheels regularly on the casino floor.
And yes, especially strip casinos.
It's common for casinos to rotor wheels regularly on the casino floor.
And yes, especially strip casinos.
January 20th, 2018 at 11:11:03 AM
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You can always find a based wheel,
Just go to a museum. Its an old wheel, ancient technology, no one has the money to keep it un-biased and no one has any incentive to do so,. If the occasional vacuum cleaner guy or floor polisher guy nudges it a bit, so what?
Now you go to a casino and you've got the Real World. Lights on 24 hours a day. Maintenance only when scheduled and performed by trained personnel. Equipment that is recent and well maintained. Equipment that is monitored by dealers, floor men, pit bosses, shift bosses and above all else by computers.
You've also got some of those fancy-smancy annoying annunciators which give both a visual display and an electronic data stream,
You've got computers that analyze anything they can. You've got auditors who analyze the paper trails.
You've got surveillance types who would just love to analyze cleavage all shift long but who know they will lose their jobs if they do it, So they watch. Sure they watch the dealer and the players and particularly they watch the winners.
You think someone is going to perceive a bias that gets by all that watching. Sure anything mechanical degrades over time. No one puts in new innards every hour, so things do wear but not fast enough to provide any opportunities,
If you think you've found a biased wheel, tell the casino you've got ten grand and they will send a limousine for you. Make it fifty grand and that limousine will be well stocked with booze and cleavage. The casino knows what is going to be happening to your bankroll and the casino knows their computers are better at spotting bias than you are,
Just go to a museum. Its an old wheel, ancient technology, no one has the money to keep it un-biased and no one has any incentive to do so,. If the occasional vacuum cleaner guy or floor polisher guy nudges it a bit, so what?
Now you go to a casino and you've got the Real World. Lights on 24 hours a day. Maintenance only when scheduled and performed by trained personnel. Equipment that is recent and well maintained. Equipment that is monitored by dealers, floor men, pit bosses, shift bosses and above all else by computers.
You've also got some of those fancy-smancy annoying annunciators which give both a visual display and an electronic data stream,
You've got computers that analyze anything they can. You've got auditors who analyze the paper trails.
You've got surveillance types who would just love to analyze cleavage all shift long but who know they will lose their jobs if they do it, So they watch. Sure they watch the dealer and the players and particularly they watch the winners.
You think someone is going to perceive a bias that gets by all that watching. Sure anything mechanical degrades over time. No one puts in new innards every hour, so things do wear but not fast enough to provide any opportunities,
If you think you've found a biased wheel, tell the casino you've got ten grand and they will send a limousine for you. Make it fifty grand and that limousine will be well stocked with booze and cleavage. The casino knows what is going to be happening to your bankroll and the casino knows their computers are better at spotting bias than you are,
January 20th, 2018 at 11:19:03 AM
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Fleastiff,
You're post is hilarious, and a fantasy.
Let me know when you actually step foot inside a real casino. Casino are NOT the well run and oiled machine that people naively believe them to be. They're run more like a city parks and recreation department. Inefficient! "Memo, did you get the memo pit four is moving to pit three. Not pit five!" "It's buy one buffet get $10. in free play, not $1000.!"
You're post is hilarious, and a fantasy.
Let me know when you actually step foot inside a real casino. Casino are NOT the well run and oiled machine that people naively believe them to be. They're run more like a city parks and recreation department. Inefficient! "Memo, did you get the memo pit four is moving to pit three. Not pit five!" "It's buy one buffet get $10. in free play, not $1000.!"
January 20th, 2018 at 11:25:53 AM
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Yeah. Casinos are one of the best examples of the Peter principle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
January 20th, 2018 at 11:40:06 AM
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Yeah, Most businesses have the Peter Principle but casinos demonstrate how to rise well beyond your level of incompetence, Biloxi in post Katrina days provided zillions of opportunities as did south Florida and Seminole hiring practices.Quote: KeyserYou're post is hilarious, and a fantasy.
Casino are NOT the well run and oiled machine that people naively believe them to be.
I did not mean that all the watching and analysis was perfectly oiled, its just a high enough hurdle, Even getting a wheel that is biased to allow you to bet on Eights will still cost you a bundle of money and time to detect and exploit,
January 20th, 2018 at 12:04:16 PM
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Flea,
The biggest hit we ever had on a biased wheel was smack in the middle of the LV strip at the utterly incompetent Caesar's Palace, 2010
After being hit by biased wheel play several times, they tried to dispute our win. In my opinion is was bad faith on their part. Their complaint was based on the fact that the wheel was biased. CP knew that they had several biased wheels, (I believe roughly 1/3 of them at the time), but what upset them was that we knew which wheels were biased and which numbers to play. They were worried that someone on the inside had told us which wheels were the biased ones. Meaning, they knew the wheels were biased and had left them on the floor for several years! They of course lost the dispute, because we detected the wheels on sight, and had discretely tracked the wheels ourselves over several years. A year later, they replaced the reader boards, but kept the same wheels! The new replacement boards didn't accurately read the numbers and produced a comedy of new errors. It wasn't until 2012 that they finally replaced all of the wheels...with some that are again piss poorly assembled.
The biggest hit we ever had on a biased wheel was smack in the middle of the LV strip at the utterly incompetent Caesar's Palace, 2010
After being hit by biased wheel play several times, they tried to dispute our win. In my opinion is was bad faith on their part. Their complaint was based on the fact that the wheel was biased. CP knew that they had several biased wheels, (I believe roughly 1/3 of them at the time), but what upset them was that we knew which wheels were biased and which numbers to play. They were worried that someone on the inside had told us which wheels were the biased ones. Meaning, they knew the wheels were biased and had left them on the floor for several years! They of course lost the dispute, because we detected the wheels on sight, and had discretely tracked the wheels ourselves over several years. A year later, they replaced the reader boards, but kept the same wheels! The new replacement boards didn't accurately read the numbers and produced a comedy of new errors. It wasn't until 2012 that they finally replaced all of the wheels...with some that are again piss poorly assembled.
January 20th, 2018 at 12:18:40 PM
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Quote: KeyserFlea,
The biggest hit we ever had on a biased wheel was smack in the middle of the LV strip at the utterly incompetent Caesar's Palace, 2010
After being hit by biased wheel play several times, they tried to dispute our win. In my opinion is was bad faith on their part. Their complaint was based on the fact that the wheel was biased. CP knew that they had several biased wheels, (I believe roughly 1/3 of them at the time), but what upset them was that we knew which wheels were biased and which numbers to play. They were worried that someone on the inside had told us which wheels were the biased ones. Meaning, they knew the wheels were biased and had left them on the floor for several years! They of course lost the dispute, because we detected the wheels on sight, and had discretely tracked the wheels ourselves over several years. A year later, they replaced the reader boards, but kept the same wheels! The new replacement boards didn't accurately read the numbers and produced a comedy of new errors. It wasn't until 2012 that they finally replaced all of the wheels...with some that are again piss poorly assembled.
Great information. The Chi Squared has a p-value of .999 which I would considered biased and I would betting 5/22. The question is, if the hypothesis is true, and the actual odds of 5/22 coming out is 6.2366% when it should be 5.2632% what kind of bankroll would you need to ensure that you make money on this. How long you would need to sit on this wheel to "guarantee" yourself a profit?
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 20th, 2018 at 12:39:45 PM
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Boymimbo,
First off, we knew which wheels were biased, on sight.
We would then make a crude prediction as to which numbers were biased, and then collected out of sample tests.
We would then formulate more accurate predictions and collect more spins. Chi square alone didn't provide the confidence required to bet, but experience with the defects and physics involved did.
Chi square was sometimes a consideration on individual number biased wheels, but not as much on sections because it wasn't a reliable indicator as to when to play.
Typical standard chi was 200 to 300 at 25k spins. On most of the old CP wheels we had spin counts around 100k or more and the total chi would produce even more absurd chances of randomness.
As far as the kind of bankroll required, I relied heavily on Monte Carlo simulations. Betting sections requires a bigger bankroll because you're playing more units at each spin. A few numbers, much fewer units.
Determining when to play was also determined by the edge available, the playing conditions, and the opportunity. It's not as simple as you might think to play a wheel correctly. The speed of the wheel, the ball...they matter. Sometimes you have to bet on the correct numbers, not just the biased numbers based on long term spin data.
Example: Say the number 20 has a loose fret. At medium speeds the ball hits it, the fret absorbs the energy and the ball dies, remaining in the number 20. However, when the wheel is spinning very fast, the ball strikes the same fret lands in the pocket, and then slowly rolls up the fret wall and lands in the number 32 because of a slight tilt in the loose fret. This is an overly simplified example, but sometimes biased numbers aren't biased just due to a specific defect, but also rely on negatively biased numbers and scatter to produce the desired result. This is why you need to rely on knowledge and experience with the defects, spin data, and Monte Carlo simulations more so than just probability of ruin scenarios. (Probability of ruin is an important factor as well, don't get me wrong.)
-Keyser
First off, we knew which wheels were biased, on sight.
We would then make a crude prediction as to which numbers were biased, and then collected out of sample tests.
We would then formulate more accurate predictions and collect more spins. Chi square alone didn't provide the confidence required to bet, but experience with the defects and physics involved did.
Chi square was sometimes a consideration on individual number biased wheels, but not as much on sections because it wasn't a reliable indicator as to when to play.
Typical standard chi was 200 to 300 at 25k spins. On most of the old CP wheels we had spin counts around 100k or more and the total chi would produce even more absurd chances of randomness.
As far as the kind of bankroll required, I relied heavily on Monte Carlo simulations. Betting sections requires a bigger bankroll because you're playing more units at each spin. A few numbers, much fewer units.
Determining when to play was also determined by the edge available, the playing conditions, and the opportunity. It's not as simple as you might think to play a wheel correctly. The speed of the wheel, the ball...they matter. Sometimes you have to bet on the correct numbers, not just the biased numbers based on long term spin data.
Example: Say the number 20 has a loose fret. At medium speeds the ball hits it, the fret absorbs the energy and the ball dies, remaining in the number 20. However, when the wheel is spinning very fast, the ball strikes the same fret lands in the pocket, and then slowly rolls up the fret wall and lands in the number 32 because of a slight tilt in the loose fret. This is an overly simplified example, but sometimes biased numbers aren't biased just due to a specific defect, but also rely on negatively biased numbers and scatter to produce the desired result. This is why you need to rely on knowledge and experience with the defects, spin data, and Monte Carlo simulations more so than just probability of ruin scenarios. (Probability of ruin is an important factor as well, don't get me wrong.)
-Keyser
Last edited by: Keyser on Jan 20, 2018
September 29th, 2018 at 7:51:40 PM
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Keyser,
Do you still play biased wheels today? Is it still a viable endeavour in 2018?
Do you still play biased wheels today? Is it still a viable endeavour in 2018?
September 29th, 2018 at 8:18:56 PM
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Yes it is.
September 30th, 2018 at 6:31:26 AM
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I want to know so much, such as
what is the type of wheel?
are there ANY plaques or identifying marks on any portion of the box?
how old do you think this wheel is?
its an AIR ball roulette table? does it shoot out of the top rim? or does it get shot up by a blast of air from the previous win numbers pocket if it is an air ball roulette? dont forget, if it is air, there is always a possibility of suction as well
i wish i could ask you where this is located but im not
why do you not think an algorithm is picking the numbers?
if it is an algorithm picking the numbers, and if it is considered cryptographically secure, then you are seeing randomness possibly
If the wheel is GLI certified, from what i understand, they test 100 million spins
what is the type of wheel?
are there ANY plaques or identifying marks on any portion of the box?
how old do you think this wheel is?
its an AIR ball roulette table? does it shoot out of the top rim? or does it get shot up by a blast of air from the previous win numbers pocket if it is an air ball roulette? dont forget, if it is air, there is always a possibility of suction as well
i wish i could ask you where this is located but im not
why do you not think an algorithm is picking the numbers?
if it is an algorithm picking the numbers, and if it is considered cryptographically secure, then you are seeing randomness possibly
If the wheel is GLI certified, from what i understand, they test 100 million spins
September 30th, 2018 at 8:02:36 AM
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In the practice when you use mechanical wheel, you every time will have bias in the results. When we make live dealers roulette software few years ago we see this on the practice. Our manager buy used roulette wheel from unbranded developer. And we see the real bias after half year. After we check all digits ball holes in sizes, we see that's one of them is less then others on 1/4 millimeter )))
September 30th, 2018 at 9:12:41 AM
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Quote:In the practice when you use mechanical wheel, you every time will have bias in the results. When we make live dealers roulette software few years ago we see this on the practice. Our manager buy used roulette wheel from unbranded developer. And we see the real bias after half year. After we check all digits ball holes in sizes, we see that's one of them is less then others on 1/4 millimeter )))
1/4 of a mm isn't very significant. I really doubt that's the cause. More substantial causes are effects that deaden the bouncing ball, or trip the ball. Every live wheel is biased to some degree. Once you get into a relevant number of spins (30k spins) most people can tell the difference between most live wheels and an RNG.
Quote:what is the type of wheel?
I've played several manufactured brands. Not just one.
Quote:are there ANY plaques or identifying marks on any portion of the box?
Box?
Quote:how old do you think this wheel is?
Some wheels are old, some are brand new. The age of the wheel doesn't matter much. It's often poor assembly that's exploited.
Quote:i wish i could ask you where this is located but im not
In the US.
Quote:why do you not think an algorithm is picking the numbers?
if it is an algorithm picking the numbers, and if it is considered cryptographically secure, then you are seeing randomness possibly
I'm not talking about a machine. I'm talking about live wheels.
Quote:If the wheel is GLI certified, from what i understand, they test 100 million spins
Maybe this is true for an RNG, but it's not true for live wheels or airball machines.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:37:20 AM
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Quote: Keyser
1/4 of a mm isn't very significant. I really doubt that's the cause. More substantial causes are effects that deaden the bouncing ball, or trip the ball. Every live wheel is biased to some degree. Once you get into a relevant number of spins (30k spins) most people can tell the difference between most live wheels and an RNG.
What are the diameters of the ball and holes intended to be?
What conditions could deaden the bouncing ball? Lack of stiffness in the surface it is bouncing on?
What could "trip" the ball? I don't understand this.
I am a physicist/engineer with experience with the mechanical engineering design and performance of rotating systems. If you can tell me more, maybe I can help you.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:45:44 AM
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Quote:What conditions could deaden the bouncing ball? Lack of stiffness in the surface it is bouncing on?
Loose pocket inserts absorb energy. Loose frets, loose pocket compartments can also absorb. Drop a roulette ball on a hard surface covered by a flat sheet of paper, then compare that to dropping it on the same surface covered by a folded piece of paper. It's a similar effect.
Quote:What could "trip" the ball? I don't understand this.
Ridges in the area above the pockets.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:49:55 AM
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Keyser,
Thanks for the response. I have one additional question for you - is a spin count of 25k spins really necessary to be sure? We are talking months of data collection for one wheel here... and it may not be biased enough for the player to obtain an edge... 100k spins? By the time you collect that many spins, the casino would probably have recalibrated the wheel and your spin data is now obsolete...
Also - your experience sounds familiar... Are you known as The General on roulette forums?
Thanks for the response. I have one additional question for you - is a spin count of 25k spins really necessary to be sure? We are talking months of data collection for one wheel here... and it may not be biased enough for the player to obtain an edge... 100k spins? By the time you collect that many spins, the casino would probably have recalibrated the wheel and your spin data is now obsolete...
Also - your experience sounds familiar... Are you known as The General on roulette forums?
September 30th, 2018 at 10:01:18 AM
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Some wheels we would play on sight. We often knew the best sections or had a good estimate as to where they'd be when we'd inspect a wheel. After limited tracking of a couple or few thousand spins were would fine tune the prediction. The same thing was often true with individual number biases as well. We could see where they likely were but would track to confirm them, and perform additional out of sample tests. Then to find the secondary biased numbers we'd have to track far more spins. Usually around 7500 to 10k . The weaker the bias, the more spins you need. The more playing condition parameters that there are can dramatically increase the tracking that is required as well. The reason we would sometimes run spin samples into several hundred thousand is because many wheels would persists for many years, while we played them, and we could still discretely track them to watch for repairs, cleaning, etc...
September 30th, 2018 at 2:07:06 PM
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Quote: KeyserSome wheels we would play on sight. We often knew the best sections or had a good estimate as to where they'd be when we'd inspect a wheel. After limited tracking of a couple or few thousand spins were would fine tune the prediction. The same thing was often true with individual number biases as well. We could see where they likely were but would track to confirm them, and perform additional out of sample tests. Then to find the secondary biased numbers we'd have to track far more spins. Usually around 7500 to 10k . The weaker the bias, the more spins you need. The more playing condition parameters that there are can dramatically increase the tracking that is required as well. The reason we would sometimes run spin samples into several hundred thousand is because many wheels would persists for many years, while we played them, and we could still discretely track them to watch for repairs, cleaning, etc...
So you are saying that these stats are from MULTIPLE WHEELS?
If so I’m out of this convo
September 30th, 2018 at 2:16:49 PM
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Quote: heatmapSo you are saying that these stats are from MULTIPLE WHEELS?
If so I’m out of this convo
No. Keyser is not the OP. You are confusing who is whom I think.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
September 30th, 2018 at 2:22:11 PM
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Quote: unJonNo. Keyser is not the OP. You are confusing who is whom I think.
Drinking champagne a little tipsy right now
And why would they respond as if they were OP
September 30th, 2018 at 3:19:32 PM
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Thanks for sharing Keyser. Learned so much from all your posts. :-)
September 30th, 2018 at 5:29:19 PM
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Quote: Keyser1/4 of a mm isn't very significant. I really doubt that's the cause.
Beleive me thats enoug for few player see that bias and start try to cheat us. After we make analitic for the 6 month we see thats is tomach.
As a proof of my words i show you the video of my old project. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DPh5Z6STrE (Thats is a russian market software). Thats was a testing JackPot payout video )))
September 30th, 2018 at 6:39:47 PM
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Playing the bias is NOT cheating. It's just good strategy.
September 30th, 2018 at 7:20:12 PM
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Quote: KeyserPlaying the bias is NOT cheating. It's just good strategy.
Tell that to Sheldon...
https://youtu.be/jg3ksGfX2kQ
October 1st, 2018 at 8:18:11 AM
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Okay.
Let's decide the issue.
It sure as shooting will never be that some casino will let us in and lug some test equipment around the roulette pit.
So our only real alternative is to purchase a used roulette wheel, set it up in someone's garage/basement and have at it with video recorders, sound equipment, lasers, lights, UV, infra red, predictive programs used at golf tournaments, etc
The used rather than new wheel will not be a problem since casinos rarely have new wheels anyway.
We can both determine the existence of bias as well as determine the bankroll/time needed to exploit bias.
Let's decide the issue.
It sure as shooting will never be that some casino will let us in and lug some test equipment around the roulette pit.
So our only real alternative is to purchase a used roulette wheel, set it up in someone's garage/basement and have at it with video recorders, sound equipment, lasers, lights, UV, infra red, predictive programs used at golf tournaments, etc
The used rather than new wheel will not be a problem since casinos rarely have new wheels anyway.
We can both determine the existence of bias as well as determine the bankroll/time needed to exploit bias.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:16:00 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffOkay.
Let's decide the issue.
It sure as shooting will never be that some casino will let us in and lug some test equipment around the roulette pit.
So our only real alternative is to purchase a used roulette wheel, set it up in someone's garage/basement and have at it with video recorders, sound equipment, lasers, lights, UV, infra red, predictive programs used at golf tournaments, etc
The used rather than new wheel will not be a problem since casinos rarely have new wheels anyway.
We can both determine the existence of bias as well as determine the bankroll/time needed to exploit bias.
Flea,
What are you trying to prove or figure out? Are you trying to prove that Santa Claus is real?
January 21st, 2019 at 1:24:28 PM
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Bnitty:
You are asking what other tests could you perform to detect bias in your roulette wheel.
You and your respondents are using a "frequentist" approach to analysis. One way of using it is to decide in advance what value of chi-square a wheel should have to be sufficiently biased to be profitable. Calculate the chi-square of the wheel and if it is in excess of your threshold play the one, two, or perhaps three most frequently occurring numbers. Another way is to use a binomial distribution model and calculate the mean and standard deviation. You have previously decided how many standard deviations greater than the mean indicate a favorable bias and play any numbers whose frequencies exceed these standard deviations.
The Wizard and at least one other of your correspondents are competent in this form of analysis and will give you good advice, but you must decide what thresholds to use. Low thresholds mean a greater chance of loss and high thresholds mean a greater chance of lost opportunity.
An older approach, and one that I think is appropriate for roulette wheels, is the Baysean approach. One assumes certain values for the probabilities of occurrence of each number and then recomputes these values using the data and the Bayes formula. For a European wheel one would assume each number to have an initial probability of occurrence to be 1/37 and consider profitable any number whose probability recomputes to be greater than 1/35. Since this type of calculation gives you a definite probability you can use the Kelly criterion to decide how much to bet.
I won't do the calculation for you but if you decide to do it yourself I'm sure you will find it a worthwhile experience.
You are asking what other tests could you perform to detect bias in your roulette wheel.
You and your respondents are using a "frequentist" approach to analysis. One way of using it is to decide in advance what value of chi-square a wheel should have to be sufficiently biased to be profitable. Calculate the chi-square of the wheel and if it is in excess of your threshold play the one, two, or perhaps three most frequently occurring numbers. Another way is to use a binomial distribution model and calculate the mean and standard deviation. You have previously decided how many standard deviations greater than the mean indicate a favorable bias and play any numbers whose frequencies exceed these standard deviations.
The Wizard and at least one other of your correspondents are competent in this form of analysis and will give you good advice, but you must decide what thresholds to use. Low thresholds mean a greater chance of loss and high thresholds mean a greater chance of lost opportunity.
An older approach, and one that I think is appropriate for roulette wheels, is the Baysean approach. One assumes certain values for the probabilities of occurrence of each number and then recomputes these values using the data and the Bayes formula. For a European wheel one would assume each number to have an initial probability of occurrence to be 1/37 and consider profitable any number whose probability recomputes to be greater than 1/35. Since this type of calculation gives you a definite probability you can use the Kelly criterion to decide how much to bet.
I won't do the calculation for you but if you decide to do it yourself I'm sure you will find it a worthwhile experience.
OnceDear is a Dear!
January 21st, 2019 at 6:24:28 PM
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The most effective approach, that I've used for many years, all over North America and the Bahamas was to first find the biased wheels, and then track them... to confirm the strength of the bias and optimize the betting. Merely tracking/writing numbers for bias isn't very efficient. After having learned the various assembly flaws and design flaws that caused bias, and having the ability to take the wheels apart and research them enabled me to determine what to look for. On average it takes me less than a few minutes to defect spot a playable biased wheel.
July 6th, 2019 at 10:58:20 AM
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I have more data on this endeavor and I’m willing to go all in to prove or disprove what everyone is proposing.
Let’s make something happen with this or else it’s all talk.
Let’s do it.
Let’s make something happen with this or else it’s all talk.
Let’s do it.
Last edited by: Bnitty on Jul 6, 2019
July 6th, 2019 at 2:22:26 PM
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Not really a good analogy but i'd prefer people decide the issue rather than endlessly TALK about it.Quote: KeyserFlea,
What are you trying to prove or figure out? Are you trying to prove that Santa Claus is real?
July 6th, 2019 at 4:58:02 PM
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What would you like to know?
What have you got, lots of spin data? Defect locations?
What have you got, lots of spin data? Defect locations?
July 6th, 2019 at 7:48:37 PM
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A few people throughout history might have made money off biased roulette wheels. But definitely more have lost money off what they Thought were biased roulette wheels.
Last edited by: MDawg on Jul 6, 2019
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 7th, 2019 at 6:26:39 AM
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The problem is that there is no way to know whether the person who claims to make money is telling the truth or being delusional (or outright lying).Quote: MDawgA few people throughout history might have made money off biased roulette wheels. But **definitely** (sic) more have lost money off what they Thought were biased roulette wheels.
To put it in Bayesian terms: having no probability model about his/her being reliable/truthful, we are stuck with our prior belief about the possibility of making money, in order to evaluate a (Bayesian) probability of veracity of the delivered info. The serpent is gobbling its own tail. Posterior remains equal to prior.
Proclaiming those beliefs on this here forum is an exercise in futility. We need facts and proof.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
July 7th, 2019 at 6:48:43 AM
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To exemplify my previous post:
If someone tells me they have been abducted by aliens, my prior belief of 0.001% chance there is any reality in all that aliens baloney leads me to confidently conclude the person is delusional. This is not based on an independent reason to believe him/her or not. Hence it means I stand on my prior opinion.
If someone comes up with a ‘’win quick’’ scheme, I know scientifically that it is baloney. So I stand on my prior opinion, *whatever* the announcements.
On the other hand, when Keyser explains the ins and outs of his/her claim, I have good reason to grant credibility to the claim and revise my opinion (=belief). If the Wizard told us he made money out of biased roulette wheels, I award credibility to the claim because of the trustworthiness I award to its author.
If someone tells me they have been abducted by aliens, my prior belief of 0.001% chance there is any reality in all that aliens baloney leads me to confidently conclude the person is delusional. This is not based on an independent reason to believe him/her or not. Hence it means I stand on my prior opinion.
If someone comes up with a ‘’win quick’’ scheme, I know scientifically that it is baloney. So I stand on my prior opinion, *whatever* the announcements.
On the other hand, when Keyser explains the ins and outs of his/her claim, I have good reason to grant credibility to the claim and revise my opinion (=belief). If the Wizard told us he made money out of biased roulette wheels, I award credibility to the claim because of the trustworthiness I award to its author.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
July 7th, 2019 at 7:35:52 AM
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When people in the math department at Stanford started working on that computer for roulette wheel (the eudemonic pie) they had to trust an Eastern university's math department that claimed they already had professors supplementing their retirement funds in Vegas.Quote: kubikulannI award credibility to the claim because of the trustworthiness I award to its author.
July 7th, 2019 at 12:55:00 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffWhen people in the math department at Stanford started working on that computer for roulette wheel (the eudemonic pie) they had to trust an Eastern university's math department that claimed they already had professors supplementing their retirement funds in Vegas.
Not to be nit-picking but it was UC Santa Cruz, not Stanford, and it was physics, not math, students. I know a lot of folks for whom either or both those distinctions matter.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
July 7th, 2019 at 2:24:58 PM
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BTW what is the issue with my use of the word definitely? that you "sic" emphasized it as grammatically incorrect?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 7th, 2019 at 3:01:06 PM
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What is "the exercise in futility"? I'm not sure what the point of your post is and it appears that you don't really know either. Either a wheel is biased enough to play or it isn't.
July 7th, 2019 at 4:10:32 PM
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Oh no! Nothing grammatical ! Sorry! Just that the word ‘’definitely’’ expresses a certitude that is not warranted. Do you have any proof?Quote: MDawgBTW what is the issue with my use of the word definitely? that you "sic" emphasized it as grammatically incorrect?
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
July 7th, 2019 at 4:13:24 PM
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The exercise in futility is the expression of unsupported beliefs, the ones asserting there is no such thing, the others there is, all without argument.Quote: KeyserWhat is "the exercise in futility"? I'm not sure what the point of your post is and it appears that you don't really know either. Either a wheel is biased enough to play or it isn't.
You, Keyser, offer valid arguments. You help advance the debate. Thank you.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
