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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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December 6th, 2017 at 8:33:19 PM permalink
Quote: Bnitty

As many of you know, there is much debate about wheel bias and detection systems.

I am hoping that this thread can help me separate fact from fiction.

Here is what I have:

7500 Data Points on an automated Wheel.

Number Occurrences Expected Value X2
19 163 196.2105263 5.621202281
35 163 196.2105263 5.621202281
16 164 196.2105263 5.287779535
33 171 196.2105263 3.239228033
27 173 196.2105263 2.745665801
9 175 196.2105263 2.292876101
24 176 196.2105263 2.081770951
26 177 196.2105263 1.880858934
14 177 196.2105263 1.880858934
31 180 196.2105263 1.339281681
11 181 196.2105263 1.179142196
32 184 196.2105263 0.759882539
6 186 196.2105263 0.531341766
23 191 196.2105263 0.138369663
34 194 196.2105263 0.024903998
2 194 196.2105263 0.024903998
10 195 196.2105263 0.007468376
100 197 196.2105263 0.00317653
12 197 196.2105263 0.00317653
25 198 196.2105263 0.016320307
4 200 196.2105263 0.07318726
18 201 196.2105263 0.116910436
30 203 196.2105263 0.234936187
36 203 196.2105263 0.234936187
21 203 196.2105263 0.234936187
50 204 196.2105263 0.309238762
20 205 196.2105263 0.39373447
8 207 196.2105263 0.593305286
3 209 196.2105263 0.833648633
15 210 196.2105263 0.969110007
28 214 196.2105263 1.612886831
13 217 196.2105263 2.202747346
1 217 196.2105263 2.202747346
29 217 196.2105263 2.202747346
17 222 196.2105263 3.389710865
7 223 196.2105263 3.657682968
5 224 196.2105263 3.935848204
22 241 196.2105263 10.22420657

7456 68.10193133

Note: This is a double zero wheel. 100 = 00 and 50 = 0

The critical value appears to suggest that if your hypothesis is that the wheel is fair then you would reject this hypothesis.

1: If you accept this data then how would you use this data similar to other players who have attempted these methods for taking advantage of wheel bias.

2: What other tests should be performed to prove or disprove any suggested bias.

Thanks

Can I ask what made you decide to track this specific wheel?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mustangsally
mustangsally
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Thanks for this post from:
Bnitty
December 6th, 2017 at 9:05:35 PM permalink
Quote: Bnitty

Are we looking to flat bet the biased sectors <snip>

Kelly betting time.
This was discussed in a 1982 math paper by SN Ethier
Testing for Favorable Numbers on a Roulette Wheel

and updated math article in his recent book
The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling, 2010. Springer.
13.2 Biased Wheels
page 469
"The question of how to detect and exploit biased
roulette wheels is an interesting one that we attempt to address in this section."

page 472
"Using r = 37 or r = 38 gives a test for determining whether the wheel
is biased, based on the frequency of the most frequent number. Actually,
we are not concerned simply with whether the wheel is biased. The relevant
question is whether there is a favorable number, that is, one that results in
a superfair bet;..."

"For an example, let us return to the question raised at the beginning of
this section. Suppose we have clocked a roulette wheel for n coups, and the
most frequent number has occurred a proportion q > 1/36 of the time. Given
that we want a 100(1 − α)% level of confidence that one or more favorable
numbers exist,..."

"A more subtle question than whether to bet is how to bet. When the probabilities
of the various numbers are known (an admittedly unlikely scenario),
we have seen in Section 10.2 that one should use the Kelly system."

good reading
do have fun
Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Dec 6, 2017
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Edpokernut
Edpokernut
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December 7th, 2017 at 1:25:52 AM permalink
Would anyone here feel "guilty" for taking advantage of a biased wheel? Or would you inform the casino and hope they give you some type of reward? What would the Wizard do?
Dobrij
Dobrij
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December 7th, 2017 at 2:33:35 AM permalink
Around the world, many wheels with bias, but that it is so rare that it is rare! Usually if number is +10%EV for the gambler this is a miracle!

Here or very crooked wheel, or it's controlled of casino : )
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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December 7th, 2017 at 2:59:52 AM permalink
Quote: Edpokernut

Would anyone here feel "guilty" for taking advantage of a biased wheel? Or would you inform the casino and hope they give you some type of reward? What would the Wizard do?

No, I would feel no guilt whatsoever. I sure would not expect any reward for snitching. Playing on a wheel that is sufficiently biased IS reporting it to the casino as someone is sure to notice you are winning too often.

PS: Mustang Sally .... nice to "see" you again. I've missed your math and explanatory skills.
Bnitty
Bnitty
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December 7th, 2017 at 5:34:08 AM permalink
Thanks for the replies everyone.

I started this as part of a graduate level statistics project. I originally thought there was a repeat bias but the numbers show that this is not true. I didn't go in looking for bias but was hoping the numbers would prove otherwise which would effectively end the project.

Now we're getting to the good stuff.

I'm going to take a stab at the Kelly betting and hopefully get back with some positive results.

If anyone else has practical advice, please keep it coming.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
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December 7th, 2017 at 6:29:02 AM permalink
Quote: Edpokernut

Would anyone here feel "guilty" for taking advantage of a biased wheel? Or would you inform the casino and hope they give you some type of reward? What would the Wizard do?

ROFLMAO.
Can't speak for Wizard, but I could live with the guilt, so long as they keep bringing me free coffee.,
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Dobrij
Dobrij
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December 7th, 2017 at 12:24:06 PM permalink
Hello! My English is bad, sorry if something is misunderstood, but I revised your data ... how to understand in the first line of the numbers 100 and 50?

to my calculations numbers with a positive EV, Nr / EV
3 +0,9%
15 +1,4%
28 +3,3%
13 +4,8%
1 +4,8%
29 +4,8%
17 +7,2%
7 +7,7%
5 +8,2%
22 +16,4%

If You ask how to play? If you play a flat bet on all numbers (10 numbers), in this case then the total bet amount should be about 5% of the bankroll

for example, if you put in each number for 1 dollar the amount of bets for a spin of $ 10, your bankroll should be about 200 dollars. Are you sure of the correctness of statistics? If you play with big bets you would have to collect 10K-20K spins
Bnitty
Bnitty
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December 7th, 2017 at 12:43:23 PM permalink
100 = 00
50 = 0

Im sure about the Chi Square value and the occurrences. What I cannot know is how or when the maintenance occurs on this wheel.

I don't have a strategy right now but several people have proposed what theoretically could work if this bias is still active.

I'm only getting 60 spins/hr so this one will take some time to fully investigate.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2017 at 2:52:46 PM permalink
Quote: Bnitty

Thanks for the replies everyone.

I started this as part of a graduate level statistics project. I originally thought there was a repeat bias but the numbers show that this is not true. I didn't go in looking for bias but was hoping the numbers would prove otherwise which would effectively end the project.

Now we're getting to the good stuff.

I'm going to take a stab at the Kelly betting and hopefully get back with some positive results.

If anyone else has practical advice, please keep it coming.

Sorry, perhaps I missed something.

Again, why did you choose this paticular wheel to track?

Was it the first wheel you tracked?

Was it just the most convenient wheel to your location?

I would find it odd if someone just happened to find a bias on the first wheel they decided to track.

If there's a real bias on the first most convenient wheel you tacked, that would lead me to believe a good many other wheels made by the same company are biased.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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