Will 98steps prevail?

Quote: guido111

Yes.

But, he does not sell his systems!
Never has, never will.!

Yes he has, yes he does.

He has written--if that's the proper term---a book--if that's the proper term. A more accurate description would be something like, "The cat threw up its dinner".

The book is called "The Undeniable Truth" or something like that. I don't know how much he charges for it, but anything in excess of its value as fuel is a waste of money. If you read it (not that I recommend doing so. You will get a disgusting, creepy feeling, like thrusting your hand into a nest of spiders), you will get a vague, rambling, and mostly incoherent explication of his "system", along with several pages of self-congratulatory, driveling, unsubstantiated claims.

Equating Singer with Einstein because they weren't believed is like equating Roseanne Barr with Jennifer Lopez because they both have big butts.

This is a response to this post, which I moved here because I'd like to keep the original challenge post focused on the challenge itself.

Quote: mkl654321

I really hope, for your sake, that you accept the results of the simulation, and don't dismiss it and march down to the casino anyway, expecting to score your daily $2000. You will be disappointed, and more importantly, broke.

I put the probability of the failed simulation convincing him not to use it in a casino at about 25%. His fellow believers will tell him to not be discouraged. They will say if it takes a billion rolls to kill his system then why worry, because he won't that long anyway. Hopefully common sense will prevail, but, alas, it usually doesn't.

You're a good man for trying to talk him out of this. However, it seldom does any good. As I've said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held. The faithful might only start to question their faith after trying dozens of systems, and losing thousands of dollar, only to see all of them eventually fail. I still try on a macro-sense to debunk betting systems, because I get asked about them all the time. However, yours or my chances of talking 98steps, or any believer, out of his faith is about the same as making a Catholic believe that a piece of bread at communion is just a piece of bread.

Quote: Wizard

I put the probability of the failed simulation convincing him not to use it in a casino at about 25%.
His fellow believers will tell him to not be discouraged.
They will say if it takes a billion rolls to kill his system then why worry, because he won't that long anyway.
Hopefully common sense will prevail, but, alas, it usually doesn't.

Not knowing the system, it should still fail somewhere below 300,000 rolls by the latest and that may be enough for 98steps to accept.
I do not play Craps, I can and have, not my game of choice.

By your reasoning then, it is absolutely INSANE to even play Craps, since you can never win in the long run. With that said, all Craps tables should be closed so no one could ever win, since in the long run they never will. Because anyone just making pass line wages all their lives will lose in the long run.

Goatcabin says it is possible to win in ones lifetime playing Craps. He even has a blog with the results.

Gambling is Gambling no matter what you call it. So I agree with you 100% that whatever one does is gambling.

But I do not gamble with your $$$ so you should not even care what happens, math or not.