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March 2nd, 2017 at 11:51:59 PM
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Hi, I already know the probability of losing X number of coin tosses in a row (50% for 1 flip, 25% for 2 flips, etc.).
Can someone tell me the formula of losing X number of coin tosses in a row, WITHOUT winning two in a row (instead of only one)?
To clarify my question, there is this negative progression which goes like this:
1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7
If this bet is won at ANY point, parlay it and wager both bet and win, or two units. If this wins, start from the beginning.
Example:
Bet A (1check): lost
Bet B (1check): lost
Bet C (1check): lost
Bet D (2checks): won
Bet E parlay (2 checks plus the 2 checks just won): won.
You're now ahead by two checks.
I would like to know the odds (probability) of going from 2 flips to 50 flips WITHOUT winning two in a row. All I need is the formula and I could work it out. But if anyone has a chart, that will be fine also.
Thanks for your help!
Can someone tell me the formula of losing X number of coin tosses in a row, WITHOUT winning two in a row (instead of only one)?
To clarify my question, there is this negative progression which goes like this:
1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7
If this bet is won at ANY point, parlay it and wager both bet and win, or two units. If this wins, start from the beginning.
Example:
Bet A (1check): lost
Bet B (1check): lost
Bet C (1check): lost
Bet D (2checks): won
Bet E parlay (2 checks plus the 2 checks just won): won.
You're now ahead by two checks.
I would like to know the odds (probability) of going from 2 flips to 50 flips WITHOUT winning two in a row. All I need is the formula and I could work it out. But if anyone has a chart, that will be fine also.
Thanks for your help!
March 3rd, 2017 at 1:27:56 AM
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It's the same. Flipping a coin:
TTTT is the same as TTHH which is same as THTH or HHHH or TTTH or THTT etc. I can't think of a general formula for what you're looking for, other than if you do X flips, there'll be 2^X possible sequences and each will have probability 0.5^X.
I'm sure someone like TheDonGuy will come up with some super simple formula. :(
TTTT is the same as TTHH which is same as THTH or HHHH or TTTH or THTT etc. I can't think of a general formula for what you're looking for, other than if you do X flips, there'll be 2^X possible sequences and each will have probability 0.5^X.
I'm sure someone like TheDonGuy will come up with some super simple formula. :(
March 3rd, 2017 at 6:19:20 AM
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Fibonacci numbers work great when the probability of success AND failure are 50% exactly.Quote: TERMINATORI would like to know the odds (probability) of going from 2 flips to 50 flips WITHOUT winning two in a row. All I need is the formula and I could work it out. But if anyone has a chart, that will be fine also.
Thanks for your help!
this will help out:
Fibonacci numbers streaks
for any other probability use a spreadsheet like this one
my Excel in Google
https://goo.gl/Af59ca
it is for a run of 2 in a row
so make a column and subtract the values from 1
thank you for sharing
Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Mar 3, 2017
I Heart Vi Hart
March 3rd, 2017 at 7:15:38 AM
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Thank you, Sally. This is what I was looking for!
March 3rd, 2017 at 8:04:54 AM
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I think I disagree with your 2 check net profit.Quote: TERMINATORExample:
Bet A (1check): lost
Bet B (1check): lost
Bet C (1check): lost
Bet D (2checks): won
Bet E parlay (2 checks plus the 2 checks just won): won.
You're now ahead by two checks.
after betC, profit = -3
bet D wins at 2 so 4 total for next bet
4 wins for 8 total, but profit = 8-2 or 6
6 + -3 = 3 total profit for the parlay win
unless there is a tip in there I did not see
looks fun to play at Craps dpass
more thrills than flat betting
I would say
good luck
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
March 3rd, 2017 at 9:38:49 AM
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Yes, you are correct, it is 3 units profit. I was in error. Thanks for pointing that out!