Old 'Fishing' Craps/Baccart method I think wins 99.99% of time

Anyone ever heard of this?

I've always said. Can beat the baccarat or craps it just takes to long.

Its like fishing.

Wait until there are 8 players in a row or ten.

THEN do a ten step martingale.

Everytime 8 players appear your fish is caught.

Probability of a 20+ baccart player run 0.00000072

Probability of 18 baccart run. 0.00000151

8 players in a row is not THAT uncommon. at 0.00177334

It will appear just less than 1 in 100 time. Don't know the math here.

Using patient and soft determination you can be a winner! Or sit in the casino all day.

Quote: heerokonami

Anyone ever heard of this?
I've always said. Can beat the baccarat or craps it just takes to long.
Its like fishing.

many do not like to fish
but like fish

Quote: heerokonami

Wait until there are 8 players in a row or ten.

I get in Excel
these probabilities for just that
player 8 in a row for 1 table and 1 shoe (8 deck)
75 hands: 0.105278914
1 in 9.5 (10 in 95)

80 hands: 0.112539051
1 in 8.9 (10 in 89)

yes yes
just like fishing
wait wait

one has to have at least 12 Bac tables to choose from to speed the wait
1 - (0.89^12) = about 75%
still could still B waiting

Quote: heerokonami

THEN do a ten step martingale.

that requires at least 1,023 betting units
at $500 a unit = $511,500

and that 99.888164% win rate is for 1 time only
to win 1023 times in a row becomes (cuz u wants to win and double your bankroll B4 RUIN)
99.888164% ^1023=31.831336%

that is ugly
less than a 1 in 3 chance

Quote: heerokonami

Everytime 8 players appear your fish is caught.

less than 1 in 3 trying to double B4 ruin is not caught
but
one can get caught

Quote: heerokonami

Probability of 18 baccart PLAYER run. 0.00000151

1 in 662,252
not for 1 shoe
way way less

75 hands: 7.82553E-05
1 in 12,779

80 hands: 8.50851E-05
1 in 11,753

of course
once 8 in a row has hit
one only need 10 more in a row for 18 in a row
10 in a row is way easier than 18 in a row

Quote: heerokonami

Don't know the math here.

super SUPER easy using Excel or Google spreadsheet
maybe I add it to my online folder for many (well, just a few) to see
and play with...

maybe not
here in Google
https://goo.gl/i8KGtR
<<<>>>
fish for lunch
thanks for sharing

one has to know the road ahead has many potholes
and how many and what kind are useful to know (no)
Sally

I don't understand why you are using numbers in your posts. You don't care about them, so just don't use them. Anecdotes and epithets are more applicable.

Quote: heerokonami

Probability of a 20+ baccart player run 0.00000072

Probability of 18 baccart run. 0.00000151

However, the probability of a run of 18 player wins given that you have already started with 8 player wins is the same as the probability of a run of 10 player wins starting from any particular point.

The probability of a player win is the same whether the previous 20 results were 20 player wins, 20 bank wins, 20 ties, or any combination.

The same goes for the probability of a bank win.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

However, the probability of a run of 18 player wins given that you have already started with 8 player wins is the same as the probability of a run of 10 player wins starting from any particular point.

The probability of a player win is the same whether the previous 20 results were 20 player wins, 20 bank wins, 20 ties, or any combination.

The same goes for the probability of a bank win.

Your bringing up a problem without giving a solution.

The theory is that we are betting against 18 wins in row not occurring. Not 10 wins in a row.

18 wins in a row will probably happen less times than 10 strictly player wins in a row.

Although given the exemplary, math done above.

I could be incorrect.

Quote: heerokonami

...I could be incorrect.

You are.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You are.

Well outstanding. Incorrect in which way.

8 thousand posts... 5 years member..

What if I speed read through most of your post first,to get a grasp on who exactly it is I'm talking too.

What would I find.

Quote: heerokonami

Your bringing up a problem without giving a solution.

The theory is that we are betting against 18 wins in row not occurring. Not 10 wins in a row.

No. Since you are waiting until you already have 8 wins in a row, the only results that matter are the next 10.

The probability of 18 wins in a row is different if you already know that the first 10 results are wins than if you do not.

Look at it another way:
The probability of 18 wins in a row (ignoring ties) is 0.4931756¹⁸ = about 1 / 355,715.
This does not mean that if you have 17 wins in a row (ignoring ties), the probability of the next one being a win as well is 1 / 355,715.
Otherwise, why wouldn't the probability of 17 wins (ignoring ties) followed by a loss be 0.4931756¹⁷ x 0.5068224 = about 1 / 326,675?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You are.

Oh a poker player. predominately poker.

Good for you.Keep that up.

I bet you, you do well at that.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

No. Since you are waiting until you already have 8 wins in a row, the only results that matter are the next 10.

The probability of 18 wins in a row is different if you already know that the first 10 results are wins than if you do not.

Look at it another way:
The probability of 18 wins in a row (ignoring ties) is 0.4931756¹⁸ = about 1 / 355,715.
This does not mean that if you have 17 wins in a row (ignoring ties), the probability of the next one being a win as well is 1 / 355,715.
Otherwise, why wouldn't the probability of 17 wins (ignoring ties) followed by a loss be 0.4931756¹⁸ x 0.5068224 = about 1 / 326,675?

Ahh so your saying those odds ONLY count if I include all the the hands dealt.

The odds change as I'm exclusively including only 20 streaks that Start as ten.

Which means the odds changed from starting at 0 streaks to starting at 10 streaks. Completely different odds.

Prehaps ten is to high. We should start at like 4 or five wins.


then run a step martingale from that.

Theres a post here where they start off at about 5 and work it. The 'market', then if you will, would be better then.

Quote: heerokonami

Quote: ThatDonGuy

No. Since you are waiting until you already have 8 wins in a row, the only results that matter are the next 10.

The probability of 18 wins in a row is different if you already know that the first 10 results are wins than if you do not.

Look at it another way:
The probability of 18 wins in a row (ignoring ties) is 0.4931756¹⁸ = about 1 / 355,715.
This does not mean that if you have 17 wins in a row (ignoring ties), the probability of the next one being a win as well is 1 / 355,715.
Otherwise, why wouldn't the probability of 17 wins (ignoring ties) followed by a loss be 0.4931756¹⁸ x 0.5068224 = about 1 / 326,675?

Ahh so your saying those odds ONLY count if I include all the the hands dealt.

The odds change as I'm exclusively including only 20 streaks that Start as ten.

Which means the odds changed from starting at 0 streaks to starting at 10 streaks. Completely different odds.

Yes - and the odds of getting 10 player wins in a row from when you are starting to bet are the same whether the previous 5 were also wins, or the previous 10, or the previous zero, or even if the previous 5, 10, or however many you want are losses.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: heerokonami

Quote: ThatDonGuy

No. Since you are waiting until you already have 8 wins in a row, the only results that matter are the next 10.

The probability of 18 wins in a row is different if you already know that the first 10 results are wins than if you do not.

Look at it another way:
The probability of 18 wins in a row (ignoring ties) is 0.4931756¹⁸ = about 1 / 355,715.
This does not mean that if you have 17 wins in a row (ignoring ties), the probability of the next one being a win as well is 1 / 355,715.
Otherwise, why wouldn't the probability of 17 wins (ignoring ties) followed by a loss be 0.4931756¹⁸ x 0.5068224 = about 1 / 326,675?

Ahh so your saying those odds ONLY count if I include all the the hands dealt.

The odds change as I'm exclusively including only 20 streaks that Start as ten.

Which means the odds changed from starting at 0 streaks to starting at 10 streaks. Completely different odds.

Yes - and the odds of getting 10 player wins in a row from when you are starting to bet are the same whether the previous 5 were also wins, or the previous 10, or the previous zero, or even if the previous 5, 10, or however many you want are losses.

Well, how do you have any baccart strategies on how to play the game? You have 2400 posts. A person with your expertise on the subject surely isn't sitting around posting about nothing all day.

Quote: heerokonami

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: heerokonami

Quote: ThatDonGuy

No. Since you are waiting until you already have 8 wins in a row, the only results that matter are the next 10.

The probability of 18 wins in a row is different if you already know that the first 10 results are wins than if you do not.

Look at it another way:
The probability of 18 wins in a row (ignoring ties) is 0.4931756¹⁸ = about 1 / 355,715.
This does not mean that if you have 17 wins in a row (ignoring ties), the probability of the next one being a win as well is 1 / 355,715.
Otherwise, why wouldn't the probability of 17 wins (ignoring ties) followed by a loss be 0.4931756¹⁸ x 0.5068224 = about 1 / 326,675?

Ahh so your saying those odds ONLY count if I include all the the hands dealt.

The odds change as I'm exclusively including only 20 streaks that Start as ten.

Which means the odds changed from starting at 0 streaks to starting at 10 streaks. Completely different odds.

Yes - and the odds of getting 10 player wins in a row from when you are starting to bet are the same whether the previous 5 were also wins, or the previous 10, or the previous zero, or even if the previous 5, 10, or however many you want are losses.

Well, how do you have any baccart strategies on how to play the game? You have 2400 posts. A person with your expertise on the subject surely isn't sitting around posting about nothing all day.

who's the one sitting around all day posting silly crap about -EV bac methods? You win that prize.

Hey no magic escrow needed just show up with cash and prove it. Money talks BS walks.

And yes I do think you are up to something shady.

If someone is dumb enough to PM you and try your system they deserve what they get. However I think they are just toying with you and you may be ____ enough to belive they are actually interested.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: heerokonami

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: heerokonami

Quote: ThatDonGuy

No. Since you are waiting until you already have 8 wins in a row, the only results that matter are the next 10.

The probability of 18 wins in a row is different if you already know that the first 10 results are wins than if you do not.

Look at it another way:
The probability of 18 wins in a row (ignoring ties) is 0.4931756¹⁸ = about 1 / 355,715.
This does not mean that if you have 17 wins in a row (ignoring ties), the probability of the next one being a win as well is 1 / 355,715.
Otherwise, why wouldn't the probability of 17 wins (ignoring ties) followed by a loss be 0.4931756¹⁸ x 0.5068224 = about 1 / 326,675?

Ahh so your saying those odds ONLY count if I include all the the hands dealt.

The odds change as I'm exclusively including only 20 streaks that Start as ten.

Which means the odds changed from starting at 0 streaks to starting at 10 streaks. Completely different odds.

Yes - and the odds of getting 10 player wins in a row from when you are starting to bet are the same whether the previous 5 were also wins, or the previous 10, or the previous zero, or even if the previous 5, 10, or however many you want are losses.

Well, how do you have any baccart strategies on how to play the game? You have 2400 posts. A person with your expertise on the subject surely isn't sitting around posting about nothing all day.

who's the one sitting around all day posting silly crap about -EV bac methods? You win that prize.

Hey no magic escrow needed just show up with cash and prove it. Money talks BS walks.

And yes I do think you are up to something shady.

If someone is dumb enough to PM you and try your system they deserve what they get. However I think they are just toying with you and you may be ____ enough to belive they are actually interested.

Who excatly is it you think you are talking to?

I'm a participant in gaming. I would like to win when I play ,theres nothing shady about that. Maybe you should see my garden. I make money for free. Nature provides, is that shady? You've got the wrong one..

I'm not even the author of that thread, those are almost all copy and pasted statements from another thread. Just to see the different reactions. Its a four star thread on its original low- key forum fro, five years ago.

Have you realized its two authors to my posts?
The responses are so predictable, I almost could fit in all my friends posts almost. I respect what you are are trying to do here. Cover up the secret key to my baccarat crystal decanter.

But your doing to good a job. Lay back a little. Nobody takes these games seriously.

How about you prove to me that your methods work.

You guys are so enthusiastic, you don't even realize I just wanted to discuss some method I found on an old fourm.

Quote: heerokonami

You guys are so enthusiastic, you don't even realize I just wanted to discuss some method I found on an old fourm.

So you're stealing (plagarizing) the garbage you posted? Have a time-out on me. 3 days for the un-credited theft. Assuming you're interested in discussing it, or I'd ban you for trolling.

Quote: heerokonami

Quote: AxelWolf

How about you prove to me that your methods work.

Method on what? Because there are methods on other casinos games that actually work I'm willing to bet that and give you odds @ 3:1 if you're willing to put up at least 5k.

Baccarat,Sure, mine works every time and I'm guaranteed to at least break even.

FYI I would love to know what poor guy/gal sent you a PM.

Quote: beachbumbabs

So you're stealing (plagarizing) the garbage you posted? Have a time-out on me. 3 days for the un-credited theft. Assuming you're interested in discussing it, or I'd ban you for trolling.

you probably just saved me another suspension

you do not know math at all.