Are things truly random?

We base gambling theory on the concept that the world and games are random. I gambled in 2015 probably a total of 150 hours. That is 150 hours in the casino. For me, it is a lot but then i start to think of gambling systems and if things are truly random.

I have witnessed events in gambling that are so rare and unlikely.

For example: roulette wheel that lands on red 20 spins in a row. Odds: over 1 in a million
Baccarat: banker or player 15-23 times in a row. I see this on every single trip (my average trip is 3 days and i gamble 4-6 hours a day). How can I sit at a table that has such an event every 20 hours of gambling? Note: i am not walking around the casino and finding these games, i am sitting at them.

Fortunately my gambling style is one where i bet with steaks or chops. I have done well when i am disciplined (i lose when i drink too much alcohol and bet 30% of my bankroll three times in a row and lose). But when disciplined I have done well.

I have always believed in random theory but know that events controlled by human are not random (such as the stock market -- it is definitely not a random walk). But casinos, slots, blackjack, baccarat. they MUST be random. but how do we explain these events?

I am going to vegas next weekend. I bet you i will see a streak of 15 in a row (1 in 32,000 chance). which is a lot considering a game of baccarat there is one event perhaps once a minute.

Tell me how many Points in a row you are seeing on the craps table from a single shooter if you get a chance.

I believe everything is as random as physically possible, if for no other reason than truly random games with a house edge are what casino's base their entire business on.

There's thousands of events or patterns that are "rare", so you are bound to notice one eventually.

I dont spend as much time in the casino as you, but I've seen some crazy stuff, like every player including the dealer having a straight on 3CP.

I don't know about real life. I suppose that is a question for physicists.

But when it comes to computers, I have been told by numerous computer programmers that its impossible for a human to program or design true randomness, and RNGs (such as in slots) always have a bias, they are only "random" based on the algorithm that was out into them and hence the output is limited.
For all human purposes this is random, and nobody would no any different for the purposes of slots. But, technically, it is not true randomness. A least this is what I have always been taught by my computer friends who have accompanied me to casinos before...

Quote: ryanhata

We base gambling theory on the concept that the world and games are random. I gambled in 2015 probably a total of 150 hours. That is 150 hours in the casino. For me, it is a lot but then i start to think of gambling systems and if things are truly random.

I have witnessed events in gambling that are so rare and unlikely.

For example: roulette wheel that lands on red 20 spins in a row. Odds: over 1 in a million
Baccarat: banker or player 15-23 times in a row. I see this on every single trip (my average trip is 3 days and i gamble 4-6 hours a day).

I am going to vegas next weekend. I bet you i will see a streak of 15 in a row (1 in 32,000 chance). which is a lot considering a game of baccarat there is one event perhaps once a minute.

I'm willing to bet none of those events will happen and you are there to see them. Of course I won't just take your word for it but I'm certain we can arrange something.

Quote: Gandler

But when it comes to computers, I have been told by numerous computer programmers that its impossible for a human to program or design true randomness, and RNGs (such as in slots) always have a bias, they are only "random" based on the algorithm that was out into them and hence the output is limited.
For all human purposes this is random, and nobody would no any different for the purposes of slots. But, technically, it is not true randomness. A least this is what I have always been taught by my computer friends who have accompanied me to casinos before...

There's "randomness" in that the RNG generates millions, if not billions, of numbers per second (nothing new about this; I designed an electronic dice roller for a college project in 1983 that generated 1 million numbers per second; the numbers themselves weren't "random" (they were 2-7 in order, then 3-8, then 4-9, 5-10, 6-11, 7-12, and back to 2-7), but the "randomness" of when the person pushed the button to stop the rolling was "random enough."

Note that this does not work as well if the cycle is large - for example, on a slot machine where there is 1 chance in 1,000,000 of hitting the jackpot, if it generates 1 million numbers per second on a cycle, then the jackpot hits at a regular interval (in this case, exactly 1 second apart), and if you can figure out when the cycle resets and are able to get to within 1/1000 of a second, you reduce the chance of winning to 1/2000 - definitely an AP! There are a number of ways around this; the easiest is to use only the "high order bits" of a number (e.g. if you want a number from 0 to 1,048,575, you generate a 32-bit number (0 to about 4 billion) and take the top 20 bits. Another is to use two different RNGs running simultaneously, and multiply the first number by the number of possibilities in the second number, then add it to the second number.

Actually, in the 1970s, somebody showed me about as close to a "true" RNG as computers in those days were going to get; it was on a "big iron" computer, and worked by having the computer "read" numbers from the line printer.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

There's "randomness" in that the RNG generates millions, if not billions, of numbers per second (nothing new about this; I designed an electronic dice roller for a college project in 1983 that generated 1 million numbers per second; the numbers themselves weren't "random" (they were 2-7 in order, then 3-8, then 4-9, 5-10, 6-11, 7-12, and back to 2-7), but the "randomness" of when the person pushed the button to stop the rolling was "random enough."

Note that this does not work as well if the cycle is large - for example, on a slot machine where there is 1 chance in 1,000,000 of hitting the jackpot, if it generates 1 million numbers per second on a cycle, then the jackpot hits at a regular interval (in this case, exactly 1 second apart), and if you can figure out when the cycle resets and are able to get to within 1/1000 of a second, you reduce the chance of winning to 1/2000 - definitely an AP! There are a number of ways around this; the easiest is to use only the "high order bits" of a number (e.g. if you want a number from 0 to 1,048,575, you generate a 32-bit number (0 to about 4 billion) and take the top 20 bits. Another is to use two different RNGs running simultaneously, and multiply the first number by the number of possibilities in the second number, then add it to the second number.

Actually, in the 1970s, somebody showed me about as close to a "true" RNG as computers in those days were going to get; it was on a "big iron" computer, and worked by having the computer "read" numbers from the line printer.

I hear if you are special you can tell the difference between numbers that are generated live and ones that are made with a RNG.

Quote: AxelWolf

I hear if you are special you can tell the difference between numbers that are generated live and ones that are made with a RNG.

The RNG numbers taste differently, a little more salty.

Quote: AxelWolf

I hear if you are special you can tell the difference between numbers that are generated live and ones that are made with a RNG.

I hear such nonsense too $:o)

Back in he day, there were some really rubbish RNG processes, such as the one in the ZXSpectrum which simply cycled through 65536 numbers from an arbitrary start point. There's also one in the language C 'rand()' which is pretty rubbish. But we are talking 1980's rubbish. Modern RNGS use 'noise' features of physical devices. Anyone (no names no pack drill. You know who you are.) who claims they can 'read random' is talking BS ( not basic strategy )

Quote: ThatDonGuy

There's "randomness" in that the RNG generates millions, if not billions, of numbers per second (nothing new about this; I designed an electronic dice roller for a college project in 1983 that generated 1 million numbers per second; the numbers themselves weren't "random" (they were 2-7 in order, then 3-8, then 4-9, 5-10, 6-11, 7-12, and back to 2-7), but the "randomness" of when the person pushed the button to stop the rolling was "random enough."

Note that this does not work as well if the cycle is large - for example, on a slot machine where there is 1 chance in 1,000,000 of hitting the jackpot, if it generates 1 million numbers per second on a cycle, then the jackpot hits at a regular interval (in this case, exactly 1 second apart), and if you can figure out when the cycle resets and are able to get to within 1/1000 of a second, you reduce the chance of winning to 1/2000 - definitely an AP! There are a number of ways around this; the easiest is to use only the "high order bits" of a number (e.g. if you want a number from 0 to 1,048,575, you generate a 32-bit number (0 to about 4 billion) and take the top 20 bits. Another is to use two different RNGs running simultaneously, and multiply the first number by the number of possibilities in the second number, then add it to the second number.

Actually, in the 1970s, somebody showed me about as close to a "true" RNG as computers in those days were going to get; it was on a "big iron" computer, and worked by having the computer "read" numbers from the line printer.

Exactly. For all intents and purposes its random.

But, its not true randomness by a technical definition.

Quote: ryanhata

I am going to vegas next weekend. I bet you i will see a streak of 15 in a row (1 in 32,000 chance). which is a lot considering a game of baccarat there is one event perhaps once a minute.

How much would you be willing to bet? If it's more than what I can earn elsewhere I will definitely take that bet and hang out with you until either your Las Vegas trip is over or we see a streak of 15 in a row

>but how do we explain ...
No explanations needed. The Dealer pushes the stack to you for 23 times in succession, you pick them up, you don't gotta 'splain nothin.
You lose 23 times in succession you is even less likely to hear any explanations.

You pays your money and youse takes your chance... and if to the purely mathematical it ain't random, don't mention it.

Quote: ryanhata

I have witnessed events in gambling that are so rare and unlikely.

.

You may not believe this, but I was dealt a jack and a deuce in BJ. The dealer had a 9 up. I hit and was given a queen. The dealer turned over his card and it was an 8. The odds of that happening I more than 300,000 to 1 against! Imagine, a J and a 2 then getting a Q when dealer has 9 and 8!

So being serious.... Our minds notice streaks, unusual events, while we dismiss equally improbable events like the one I mentioned above.

Have you ever seen PPBPPBPPBPPBPPB?

Or BPBPBPBPBPBPBPB?
Or any combination of 15 B s and Ps.

All equally unlikely. You only choose to notice some of them....

And welcome!

Are things TRULY random?

Good question. Are we agents of our own destiny? Or are we leaves in the wind, subject to the vagaries of a fate we can never understand? Do things only appear to be influenced by our choices? Are there forces behind the scenes molding events into a narrative we can never genuinely comprehend?

IS OUR PERCEPTION OF REALITY ONLY AN ILLUSION?

Hell, I don't know.

Do we confuse randomness with uniqueness? All unique items are random, but all random items are not unique.

If you believe in predestination, then you cannot believe in randomness.
One infers choice, the other says always make the table max bet.
I'm still undecided between the two, though I'm leaning toward a progressive betting strategy ;-!

Quote: Mosca

Good question. Are we agents of our own destiny? Or are we leaves in the wind, subject to the vagaries of a fate we can never understand? Do things only appear to be influenced by our choices? Are there forces behind the scenes molding events into a narrative we can never genuinely comprehend?

According to Forrest Gump, it's both.

Quote: ryanhata

...I have witnessed events in gambling that are so rare and unlikely....

If nothing unlikely happened we would all be rich - just wait until it's nearly unlikely and bet the opposite!

As has been said, it would actually be rare for nothing unlikely to happen.

There are so many people who ask questions that are so much better phrased than the way I would put them. And the answers - most are far more eloquent than I could put to words.

For me, the original question is interesting - but more interesting to me is - what of this perception that when you're playing any form of video poker that is not deuce's wild that you will get a natural 4 card royal and a deuce far more often than when you are playing deuces wild?

This anomaly seems to share circumstances with straights and flushes.

I routinely hold the four card flush, and lose the deuce of clubs, only for the new card to be - as you might guess - a deuce of spades. Never a red deuce, unless it's a red deuce that is discarded.

I hit a record this weekend for four card royals, I think. Enough to make me go sane.

// End mini rant. You may now resume your philosophical discourse on randomness or lack thereof.

Quote: ukaserex

This anomaly seems to share circumstances with straights and flushes.

Sounds like more than a coincidence that is not statistically random. Sounds like the machine is teasing you. BUT....Do you really think the casinosmislead you into thinking if you were playing deuces wild, you would actually be winning???

Heh, there are some days when I think I could do no worse.

A couple of times, I will hold the absolute worst card I can hold, like a 3 of hearts, discarding a 10, 8, 6, 4 of differing suits and pull 3 faces. Two of three times I've done this for kicks and I know it's just anecdotal, but it seems the machine feels sorry for me and proceeds to give more favorable hands.

It is uncanny, almost as if the machine knows it must pay back a certain amount within a certain time.

I have seen it enough times to know that there's something to it beyond mere coincidence. What that "IT" is, I have no idea, nor could I reliably reproduce the event.

I've seen a machine that I put $100 into progressively award my play with credits to get me to $145. Yet, try as I might, I could not get it to $150. It would go from $100 to $60, up to $145, down to $40, up to $145, down to $25, up to $130, down to $10, up to $145, and then to zero. You'd think I'd take a hint and cash out at $145, but I only rarely do so, if I'm already up or just sat down to play.

No, I don't think those machines are truly "random". Not in the least. Mostly random, yes. Truly, no.

I think random is just a perception. It may be 'random' to us ... and random enough, but is anything really random? The dice landed a certain way because of the speed, angle, spin, exactly where it hit ... in a physics sense the number was guaranteed to be such based on all the variables involved. To us mortals, it's random enough. Some 'RNGs' are/were exploitable, if you knew enough information.

mel

Quote: melroyalmcbee

I think random is just a perception. It may be 'random' to us ... and random enough, but is anything really random? The dice landed a certain way because of the speed, angle, spin, exactly where it hit ... in a physics sense the number was guaranteed to be such based on all the variables involved. To us mortals, it's random enough. Some 'RNGs' are/were exploitable, if you knew enough information.

mel

I think I can accept this.