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Donniee
Donniee
Joined: Dec 28, 2015
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December 28th, 2015 at 6:29:29 PM permalink
For those of you who aren't familiar with the "Cancellation betting system" it is located here: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/cancellation/

Charts are provided showing us that the system clearly works better in craps compared to roulette. Would this system work better in craps or in EZ Baccarat? If the answer is EZ baccarat, would it be better to bet on player or banker considering that banker does not charge a commission but three card 7s are a push.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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December 28th, 2015 at 8:15:27 PM permalink
I ran 5 million trials with each of the 10 starting bankrolls the Wizard uses, assuming a 6-deck shoe

For player betting, the loss percentages were virtually identical to craps.

For bank betting, they were slightly better:
Starting bankroll 5: 68.1%
10: 51.8%
20: 35.2%
50: 18.2%
100: 10.3%
200: 5.55
300: 3.8%
500: 2.4%
750: 1.6%
1000: 1.2%
Donniee
Donniee
Joined: Dec 28, 2015
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December 28th, 2015 at 10:51:05 PM permalink
Thank you! Did you test this on mini baccarat or EZ baccarat? Dragons are a push for EZ baccarat and I want to make sure that is included in the percentage.
Donniee
Donniee
Joined: Dec 28, 2015
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December 29th, 2015 at 12:24:50 AM permalink
Instead of setting a goal of 10 units, I want to try a simulation for a goal of 3 or 5 units. I assume the percentage of achieving our goal would be a lot higher. Can someone help me?
Tanko
Tanko
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
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December 29th, 2015 at 7:15:52 AM permalink
Quote: Donniee

Instead of setting a goal of 10 units, I want to try a simulation for a goal of 3 or 5 units. I assume the percentage of achieving our goal would be a lot higher.



Then why not make it still easier with a goal of one unit?

This is how the lines will eventually look using Labouchere:


15 +1 unit

15 +1 unit

15,15,15 + 1 unit

15,15,15,30,30,45,45,75,..600,600,600,750.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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December 29th, 2015 at 8:28:53 AM permalink
Quote: Donniee

Thank you! Did you test this on mini baccarat or EZ baccarat? Dragons are a push for EZ baccarat and I want to make sure that is included in the percentage.


EZ baccarat (the one with no commission on Banker bets, but a 3-card Banker hand that totals 7 is a push if it wins)
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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December 29th, 2015 at 8:39:02 AM permalink
Quote: Donniee

Instead of setting a goal of 10 units, I want to try a simulation for a goal of 3 or 5 units. I assume the percentage of achieving our goal would be a lot higher. Can someone help me?


Donniee, As a simple rule of thumb for ANY money management betting system . . .

With no house edge:-
Probability of hitting target goal = (Starting Bankroll)/(Starting Bankroll + Target Profit)
E.g. probability of turning 100 into 110 where you play until objective met or until you bust out =100/110 = 0.909 or 90.9%
E.g. probability of turning 100 into 103 where you play until objective met or until you bust out =100/103 = 0.971 or 97.1%

That assumes that you engineer the bet so that you cannot win more than the target goal and can lose up to the bankroll.

If there is a house edge, then '=' becomes '<'

Think of your money management system as a one time, odds on bet such as covering 35 numbers on a euro roulette wheel for one spin. (True P=35/37=94.5%) to turn 35 bankroll into 36.
Estimated P from my rule of thumb would be 35/(35+1)=97.2% where the difference is down to the house edge.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..

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