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lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
Joined: May 8, 2015
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September 19th, 2015 at 10:33:46 AM permalink
There is absolutely no doubt that you can make a small fortune with your system. But to do it you would have to start with a large fortune.
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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September 19th, 2015 at 10:57:12 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

There is absolutely no doubt that you can make a small fortune with your system. But to do it you would have to start with a large fortune.



Indeed :o)
The safest way is always to start with a large fortune. If you have a large fortune, you would surely only play for amusement..... Or to p155 those naysayers who swear blind that 'target betting', 'progressive betting' and Marty will always leave you bankrupt in your lifetime.

If Bill gates played Marty from a $5 base and always walked out when he had won enough to buy dinner, how many days would he be able to do that, with 99% confidence of surviving I wonder?

There's a spreadsheet for that :o)

If I had a gazillion dollars, I'd make a point of sitting down next to a naysayer and martingale or system bet at $5 stakes just for fun. I'd keep saying ( about the long term ) 'Are we there yet'
:o)

Seriously though..... It wasn't meant to be proposed as a winning system. Just the opposite in fact. Sadly I won £3350 in the 3 days I did it. That wasn't supposed to happen.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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September 20th, 2015 at 4:29:21 AM permalink
http://youtu.be/ds2YvLWVcbQ
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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September 20th, 2015 at 5:07:57 AM permalink
Quote: RS

http://youtu.be/ds2YvLWVcbQ



Oh I know that and I'm not disagreeing for one second.

I suppose you are referring to Expected Value.

But I was damned unlucky to have completely not received expected value, probably because 3 days and some 1500 wagers does not qualify as 'in the long term'.

It's a sad fact that I increased my starting bankroll about fourteen-fold over the lifetime of the experiment.

That does not disprove anything that you, or Romes, or others are saying. I ended up in the tail end of the distribution curve where the sun was shining down on me and the birds were (ARE) singing..

It was unlikely at the outset. but the probability that I am in profit at this moment is 100%.

And from all this, I learned a few things, some mathematical and some not.

Thanks to Romes : If my wagers are relatively small, I'm going to tend to be closer to EV, and so, less likely to meet any win target. I stood a better chance of multiplying my bankroll by wagering substantially and less often. (50 rather than 5-10 ) Because fewer, larger bets broadens out and flatten out the distribution curve and less action exposes me to less house edge.

Again Thanks to Romes:-
Overall Standard Deviation = (wager count)^0.5 x (SD for one wager) * (wager size)

Thanks to Sally : There's that handy spreadsheet that I'd overlooked.

Thanks to fate : Empirical evidence supports my rule of thumb. Romes and yourself haven't disputed that yet to my satisfaction.

Thanks to experience : Remember to screen-grab when something interesting might happen.

Thanks to my current financial situation : Playing can be fun. Bankroll management 'systems' can be fun too.

Thanks to MangoJ in an unrelated thread :
"For that gambling purpose you should maximize variance as much as possible (for same EV), because it is the variance which gives the gambler the utility to play"

Thanks to post experiment wagering : Easy come, easy go :o)..... But not all of it.



It never was promoted as a winning system, short, medium or long term: Just a way to play for fun.

For clarity, I added this to the original post.
Edit ->>>
NOTE: This thread not a recommendation or a winning system. It's debunking one.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Dalex64
Dalex64
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
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September 20th, 2015 at 7:51:05 AM permalink
I think the fact that you came out ahead is great.

It shows that you can't use your results at this time scale as proof or disproof of a winning system.

It demonstrates nicely the fact that there is a results curve, and some people might win big even with a long term losing system.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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September 27th, 2015 at 7:24:41 AM permalink
Which muppet voted "I cannot see a flaw to this system"?

That bugs me more than those who voted that I'm pants at statistics.

$:o)
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
Joined: May 22, 2013
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September 27th, 2015 at 9:34:42 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Which muppet voted "I cannot see a flaw to this system"?

That bugs me more than those who voted that I'm pants at statistics.

$:o)


Just for the record, I have not voted. It shows I still have the option to vote.
I chose not to vote.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F

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