Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 7192
July 19th, 2010 at 8:12:42 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

...But if I had to double my bankroll by noon, or risk having my legs broken by my lender, then I would go for the 1 play double my money.

LOL. And a quick resolution could give more time in which to skip town, just in case that one shot didn't work out!
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 665
July 19th, 2010 at 8:16:07 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Sorry, not good enough. I can't think of one gaming writer, particularly those that favor advantage play, that would reccomend a one bet appearance at the casino.



Ah, an "advantage" player. First, I am not "recommending" a one-roll bet; I am simply stating the fact that, if your goal is to double your bankroll, that is the most likely way to do it. Second, if you really WERE an "advantage" player, that would not be the case. It's the fact that the player is at a disadvantage that maximizes the doubling probability at one bet. Just like the house advantage, a player advantage would compound itself.

Quote: DeMango

Indeed the math doesn't lie, but a one roll deal is foolish.



What's "foolish" is to make that judgement for anyone except yourself. If a player has 1/2 x, needs x more than he/she needs to hold on to 1/2 x, one bet is the most likely way to get x. This is using the utility of the win amount vs. the utility of the bet amount to drive the bet strategy. Of course, this is an unlikely scenario. You are trying to make it sound like I advocate this as a regular thing, which is, of course, far from the case. Your statement that putting more than 10% of the bankroll on the table is "financial suicide" is what I was objecting to.

Quote: DeMango

Take that a step forward. You took the plunge and won, what next? Another plunge, then another? Or take the winnings and go back to "normal" betting.



OK, you doubled your money. What now? It depends. What's the value of that money compared to what you might win? How much would it hurt to lose it? Since the poster is presumably not an "advantage" player, any further play carries with it an expected loss. Each player has to decide, and the best decision is an informed one.

Quote: DeMango

No, the OP presented a case where too much % of bankroll was at stake. The solution is to increase bankroll or cut back the bet, not bet it all in one plunge.



As I said, I never proposed that as a "solution" at all. I suggested either making one lay bet or using the lower-variance, lower-bet DP. However, as my study showed, doubling the bankroll, although it keeps one in the game more often, actually results in losing more money, on average. The level of "risk of ruin" a player tolerates is up to him/her.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"

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