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mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
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April 22nd, 2015 at 4:31:50 PM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

Would the avg win be approx 2?
Half the time win 1 unit half the time win 3 units (1+3)/2

no
you lose 1/32 of the time so the avg win is a weighted average
cuz u win 31/32

I gets 61/31 or 1.967741935 (rounded) for the avg win
(I bet 3.4 cents one wants to see the math on that one)

so you lose 1 time in 32 tries
-61
and win 1.967741935 31 times
all on average of course
1.967741935 * 31 = 61

a wash (ding! i am worth millions and still have to do my own laundry)

just like a regular Marty 5 step
you lose 1 time in 32 tries
-31
and win 1 (avg win = 1) 31 times
all on average of course
hey, echo

but good luck finding a 50/50 game in a real casino
the games are not fair there (by definition that is)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
surrender88s
surrender88s
Joined: Jun 23, 2013
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April 22nd, 2015 at 9:04:49 PM permalink
thanks Sally- I left out the last chance of winning so I erroneously doubled the risk of hazard in my calculations. I never checked my work in elementary school math either :-P
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
Dantheman
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
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April 22nd, 2015 at 10:01:08 PM permalink
Ok yes i have a better understanding now thank you for explaining

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