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Dantheman
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
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April 21st, 2015 at 7:57:54 PM permalink
I was playing around with different variations of martingale recently.
I worked out that if your first bet is 1 unit and you increase your second bet to anything more than 2 units (for example 4) then continue to double for say upto 3 more attempts (5 step) until winning or busting, it is approx 3 times more profitable and only costs approx twice as much as a 5 step standard martingale on a bust.
Eg
1,2,4,8,16 = 1 unit win each win, 31 unit loss each bust
1,4,8,16,32 = 3 unit win each win, 61 unit loss each bust

Can someone explain why this isnt a winning strategy?
Not interested in smart alec comments cheers
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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April 21st, 2015 at 8:08:21 PM permalink
Can you explain why this is a winning strategy?
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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April 21st, 2015 at 8:10:43 PM permalink
Unless I missed something, all you did was skip one step. As a result, when (if) you finally win, you win three units instead of one.

Big deal.

Martingales don't work because, sooner or later, you'll hit a string of bad luck where the next bet is either greater than the table limit, or exceeds your bankroll.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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April 21st, 2015 at 8:17:47 PM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

1,4,8,16,32 = 3 unit win each win, 61 unit loss each bust

Can someone explain why this isnt a winning strategy?

say you bet on a fair coin flip at Sally's Casino

your first bet is on A side (A and Z are the bets)
you WIN!

you won 1 cuz ur 1st bet was only 1
not 3
that happens 50% of the time

now
you must calculate your average bet
for the game you wants to play in a casino
and you will C the light

have fun and win!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 21st, 2015 at 8:20:25 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Unless I missed something, all you did was skip one step. As a result, when (if) you finally win, you win three units instead of one.

Big deal.

Martingales don't work because, sooner or later, you'll hit a string of bad luck where the next bet is either greater than the table limit, or exceeds your bankroll.

BUT What if, is the next question.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
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April 21st, 2015 at 8:21:44 PM permalink
1, 3, 7, 15, 31. You win a unit a hand as long as you don't bust and you only lose 57 units when you bust.
Dantheman
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
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April 21st, 2015 at 8:27:30 PM permalink
So theres basically 3 outcomes
1) win after a win = 1
2) win after a loss of less then 5 in a row = 3
3) lose 5 bets in a row = -61

I know losing 5 bets or more in a row is common but im only interested in multiples of 5 eg 5,10,15,20
as for example 6 losses in a row then a win would mean i bust once (-61) and win after a loss once (+3)
How do I find out the probability of losing exactly 5 times in a row (-61), 10 times in a row -122), 15 in a row (-183)
and so on?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 21st, 2015 at 8:28:19 PM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

I was playing around with different variations of martingale recently.
I worked out that if your first bet is 1 unit and you increase your second bet to anything more than 2 units (for example 4) then continue to double for say upto 3 more attempts (5 step) until winning or busting, it is approx 3 times more profitable and only costs approx twice as much as a 5 step standard martingale on a bust.
Eg
1,2,4,8,16 = 1 unit win each win, 31 unit loss each bust
1,4,8,16,32 = 3 unit win each win, 61 unit loss each bust

Can someone explain why this isnt a winning strategy?
Not interested in smart alec comments cheers

Because you are playing a -EV game.

If it worked casinos would not let you do it.

Teams would simply over run casinos with monster bankrolls.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 21st, 2015 at 8:33:05 PM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

So theres basically 3 outcomes
1) win after a win = 1
2) win after a loss of less then 5 in a row = 3
3) lose 5 bets in a row = -61

I know losing 5 bets or more in a row is common but im only interested in multiples of 5 eg 5,10,15,20
as for example 6 losses in a row then a win would mean i bust once (-61) and win after a loss once (+3)
How do I find out the probability of losing exactly 5 times in a row (-61), 10 times in a row -122), 15 in a row (-183)
and so on?

How many examples of 10 or more do you want? Go though a casino and look at digital table game tally boards like roulette black/red even/odd You will have no problem seeing 10 or more.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dantheman
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
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April 21st, 2015 at 8:49:48 PM permalink
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