Quote:mustangsallysay you bet on a fair coin flip at Sally's Casino

your first bet is on A side (A and Z are the bets)

you WIN!

you won 1 cuz ur 1st bet was only 1

not 3

that happens 50% of the time

now

you must calculate your average bet

for the game you wants to play in a casino

and you will C the light

have fun and win!

Sally

Would the avg win be approx 2?

Half the time win 1 unit half the time win 3 units (1+3)/2

1: 50%

2: 25%

3: 12.5%

4: 6.25%

Lose 5 in a row: 6.25%

Payouts at each round are: 1,3,3,3,-61

EV of 1: 0.5

EV of 2: 0.75

EV of 3: 0.375

EV of 4: 0.1875

EV of lose 5 in a row: -3.8125

Expected loss of this system is a loss of 2.75 per "round", which is playing until you win OR lose 5 times.

The expected gain or loss of flat-betting is 0. The more "levels" you play martingaling, the lower the chance of hazard, and the bigger the hazard.

EV of 1: 0.5

EV of 2: 0.25

EV of 3: 0.125

EV of 4: 0.0625

EV of lose 5 in a row: -1.9375

Expected loss of this system is a loss of 1.05 per "round", which is playing until you win OR lose 5 times.

Quote:DanthemanI was playing around with different variations of martingale recently.

I worked out that if your first bet is 1 unit and you increase your second bet to anything more than 2 units (for example 4) then continue to double for say upto 3 more attempts (5 step) until winning or busting, it is approx 3 times more profitable and only costs approx twice as much as a 5 step standard martingale on a bust.

Eg

1,2,4,8,16 = 1 unit win each win, 31 unit loss each bust

1,4,8,16,32 = 3 unit win each win, 61 unit loss each bust

Can someone explain why this isnt a winning strategy?

Not interested in smart alec comments cheers

To answer your question directly, yes, you triple your wins if you win. Yes, you double your hazard if you lose. Triple is more than double, right? ... well... at first that makes sense, but it's really your brain fooling you. Tripling 1 is 3, so a magnitude of 2 change. Doubling ~30 is 60, a magnitude change of 30. Doubling the big loss is way worse than winning 2 more a few times. Cheers.

Quote:surrender88sTo answer your question directly, yes, you triple your wins if you win. Yes, you double your hazard if you lose. Triple is more than double, right? ... well... at first that makes sense, but it's really your brain fooling you. Tripling 1 is 3, so a magnitude of 2 change. Doubling ~30 is 60, a magnitude change of 30. Doubling the big loss is way worse than winning 2 more a few times. Cheers.

Thats what is confusing me-

If it is still going to lose with the same frequency as the standard martingale, doesnt the extra amount in wins before that happens mean it is better?

Quote:DanthemanThats what is confusing me-

If it is still going to lose with the same frequency as the standard martingale, doesnt the extra amount in wins before that happens mean it is better?

Like every other martingale variant, it works great until you can't place a big bet.

When you can't place a big bet - either due to table limit or bankroll constraint - you've lost a big chunk of money, and that is quite hard to recover from, even winning 3 units at a time.

These people spend hours a day (daily) in a casino with some losing system. They treat it like it's a job. They've figured out how much $$$ they think they should be making per roll/shooter/hour/day whatever. But they THINK they're gonna be winners.

With that being said, do what you want with your money -- the casino will be glad to take it from you.

Quote:DanthemanThats what is confusing me-

If it is still going to lose with the same frequency as the standard martingale, doesnt the extra amount in wins before that happens mean it is better?

Actually, if "lose" means "reach the point where you can't make the next bet necessary," then losing will happen more often if you bet more because the amounts you bet after each number of losses are larger as well.

Compare the examples, and assume your bankroll is 1500:

"Normal" Martingale: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024; after 10 losses, you are behind 2047

"1-4" Martingale: 1, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64. 128. 256, 512, 1024; after only 9 losses, you are behind 2045

And don't even think about going to the ATM and "temporarily borrowing" the money for your next mortgage payment, under the assumption that "I'll win it back eventually."

Remember the words of Oscar Madison (that's Quincy Oscar Madison, not the new Chandler one): "There's no such thing as a sure thing; that's why they call it gambling." ("Pro wrestling is fixed, right? There's no possible way Vince McMahon lets Brock Lesnar beat Undertaker at WrestleMania...")