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mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 14th, 2015 at 4:01:28 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

As a little exercise, I've created an Excel workbook which illustrates dramatically how a progressive Martingale will generally give a bankroll with quite a steady initial uptrend punctuated with death defying crashes.

It allows you to experiment with waiting till xNumber of Reds appear before starting a martingale bet on the possibility of a Black to break the cycle.

It's nothing sophisticated and does not use macros, so is safe to run in excel 2010 or later.

thank you for sharing
the Marty is a fun way to play for many, for sure

oh
I used it in excel 2007
with no problems

there are also
free
add-ins that turn a spreadsheet into a simulator with no code to write too
I have one and use it sometimes

======================================
i bring this up because of your statement
"How often do you double your bankroll before crashing? About half the time !!!"

this is not even close to being a true statement
in my opinion

I get simulated about 62% to bust the $5k bank (that makes 38% success rate, far far from "About half the time")

using your sheet and another one i have this to show
no color added until feeling better


color in me other simulator

Mully
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Kavouras
Kavouras
Joined: Apr 22, 2014
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March 14th, 2015 at 7:02:56 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


i bring this up because of your statement
"How often do you double your bankroll before crashing? About half the time !!!"

this is not even close to being a true statement
in my opinion

I get simulated about 62% to bust the $5k bank (that makes 38% success rate, far far from "About half the time")
Mully



This is strange indeed!
You would have better results if you bet all your bankroll in the first spin.
Maybe numbers lie after all...
Can you explain you results logically?
http://www.Roulette30.com
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 14th, 2015 at 9:54:10 PM permalink
Quote: Kavouras

This is strange indeed!
You would have better results if you bet all your bankroll in the first spin.

yepp
or just bet $2500 at a time = 47.2992701%
or $1000 at a time = 43.2824583%
Quote: Kavouras

Maybe numbers lie after all...
Can you explain you results logically?

trying to double a $5000 bankroll $2 at a time takes time
and lots of spins in the OP example
that looks abouts likes 2500 betting units

$1000 bets = about 5 betting units
and on average abouts 25 spins - to success or ruin
of course it could take more than 25 spins - only 65% chance it happens by #25

this is where more is less
and less is better

units that be
Mully
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bigfoot66
bigfoot66
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March 14th, 2015 at 10:31:12 PM permalink
Very good point Sally. Looking at it logically we can also say that if a system allows you to double your bankroll in more than 50% of trials then you must have a mathematical advantage at the game. Furthermore the martingale demands that we make many many small wagers: the sum of our action is significantly higher than if we bet the whole bankroll using "bold strategy". The cost of making all those small bets is a reduced probability of a large win....the house edge grinds away at our probability of success.
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djatc
djatc
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March 14th, 2015 at 10:38:17 PM permalink
Quote: sc15

Well, I can think of a situation where martingale has value especially in vegas.

A hooker wants $500 for the night and you have $450. The odds are in your favor for getting laid tonight. But you'll still wake up with less money than you started :)



I'm sure shell take $50 off if youre fast enough
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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March 15th, 2015 at 6:20:56 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

...I bring this up because of your statement
"How often do you double your bankroll before crashing? About half the time !!!"
...
I get simulated about 62% to bust the $5k bank (that makes 38% success rate, far far from "About half the time")


Thanks Sally for adding to my analysis. Your observation is interesting and seems to be correct.

I'd made the intuitive assumption that the chances of doubling bankroll would be similar to the 48.65% chance of doubling with one, bankroll sized bet. To my very rough estimations .4865 is close to a half. Can you live with that level of inaccuracy :o)

But it does transpire that if bet size is small compared to bankroll, and consequently you can take many consecutive losses before busting out, then your chances of doubling bankroll seem to be further diminished. It's not obvious to me quite why this should be and frankly I cannot be bothered to figure it out. Maybe it's the impact of greater repeated exposure to house edge, or maybe it's some consequence of the partial last bet of a losing streak.

Frankly I'm not too bothered, having proven that such a Marty is not sensible in trying to make a significant gain.

So, I'll just modify the comment in my workbook to read :-
"How often do you double your bankroll before crashing? Less than half the time !!!" and leave it at that.

To any latecomers to this topic: The charts shown are just examples created from the spreadsheet. So feel free to download and try it for yourself.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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March 15th, 2015 at 7:20:07 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: mustangsally

...I bring this up because of your statement
"How often do you double your bankroll before crashing? About half the time !!!"
...
I get simulated about 62% to bust the $5k bank (that makes 38% success rate, far far from "About half the time")


...It's not obvious to me quite why this should be and frankly I cannot be bothered to figure it out....



I think I've figured a simple logical explanation without complicated maths:-

With one £5000 wager, either,
Sum of winning wagers = £5000 and Sum of losing wagers = £0
or
Sum of winning wagers = £0 and Sum of losing wagers = £5000

Therefore the Sum of 'Action' on the table is (£5000+0) or (0 + £5000), which is £5000 in either case.
So, with one bankroll sized bet, Sum of Expected Loss Equals (1/37 * 5000)

BUT

With a multitude of smaller bets being placed in any other system, there will be some winners that are cancelled out with some losers as we progress to the final outcome:-

Sum of winning wagers >£5000 and sum of losing wagers >£0 if we are to successfully double
or
Sum of winning wagers >£0 and sum of losing wagers >£5000 if we are to eventually fail.

So, Sum of Expected loss will still be 1/37 * (Sum of winning wagers + Sum of losing wagers), but (Sum of winning wagers + Sum of Losing wagers) must be > 5000.

Therefore with small and occasionally cancelling wagers, Sum of Expected loss Greater than 1 / 37 * Bankroll

I cannot be bothered to quantify the difference, but I can see why it arises.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 15th, 2015 at 8:24:35 AM permalink
two two ?
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mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 15th, 2015 at 8:25:34 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

So, I'll just modify the comment in my workbook to read :-
"How often do you double your bankroll before crashing? Less than half the time !!!" and leave it at that.

you could also add this to excel online (for you free) and that way a person does not need to have Excel to try it
https://office.live.com/start/default.aspx


one suggestion is to add a max table bet just to be more realistic

===============================================
also, to give Marty players even more excitement at 0Roulette
turn $5k into $7.5k, not double but just 50% increase (start bet =2)

now we are at about 55% success to hit 7.5k (one time probability that is)
now a favorite to hit the win goal target!

more winners by not being greedy
many will say

(of course, many spins on avg still required abouts 3,000 of them)

now
start bet =5
success rate abouts 57%
and only 1,161 spins on average to hit 7.5k
keeps getting better (think of the comps too)
better = more fun

time is money
Mully

http://www.toxicdrums.com/doubling-system.html
nice pics to view here too
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OnceDear
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OnceDear
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March 15th, 2015 at 9:32:00 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

two two ?

I'm sorry but I don't understand that comment. Please explain.
As to your other comments about using Marty to achieve modest objectives, you are quite correct. With the caveat that using Marty multiple times with multiple modest objectives one after another will still be as risky as one continuous session. Let us not encourage Marty exponents who think that quitting a session while ahead and coming back another day is a good idea.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..

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