RouleyPays
RouleyPays
Joined: Jan 31, 2015
  • Threads: 1
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January 31st, 2015 at 7:20:29 PM permalink
This forum has a lot of smart bettors so id like some advice on the following subject.

I've done pretty well at roulette, but I'm aware of the reality of long term expectations.

However, my question is the following:

Let's say you are playing automated roulette on a touch screen. Everytime you play, you wrote down every number. After a few months, you have 10,000 data points. The data (using a computer) says that there is a pattern. Basically, the wheel repeats the same area ~ 15% of the time within 3 spins, and 25% on the fourth spin. So In double 00 roulette, if it hits 00, then you will see a repeat of that number or any number within 2 to the left or right of the number (27,10,00,13,36) within 4 spins, especially on the fourth.

The data also says that there is no number bias. All the numbers in your data set occur the same number of times.

For the sake of argument, let's say that you personally recorded this data, so you have no fear of a mistake.

a) what would be your betting strategy?

b) is 10,000 numbers enough sample to believe this trend or is it all an illusion?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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January 31st, 2015 at 7:39:01 PM permalink
Quote: RouleyPays

This forum has a lot of smart bettors so id like some advice on the following subject.

I've done pretty well at roulette, but I'm aware of the reality of long term expectations.

However, my question is the following:

Let's say you are playing automated roulette on a touch screen. Everytime you play, you wrote down every number. After a few months, you have 10,000 data points. The data (using a computer) says that there is a pattern. Basically, the wheel repeats the same area ~ 15% of the time within 3 spins, and 25% on the fourth spin. So In double 00 roulette, if it hits 00, then you will see a repeat of that number or any number within 2 to the left or right of the number (27,10,00,13,36) within 4 spins, especially on the fourth.

The data also says that there is no number bias. All the numbers in your data set occur the same number of times.

For the sake of argument, let's say that you personally recorded this data, so you have no fear of a mistake.

a) what would be your betting strategy?

b) is 10,000 numbers enough sample to believe this trend or is it all an illusion?

If true you PM me.

Depending on what's going on (how predictable and what your predicting ) I would lend some merit to 10k spins.
unfortunately with 10k spins there's a high probably you have made some mistakes.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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January 31st, 2015 at 8:11:22 PM permalink
The automated roulette setups have been beaten
when somebody figured out the long pattern.
Most of them have been tightened up now
and it's not so easy. Roulette Evolution got
taken for $250K a few years ago and as a
result many casinos dropped it.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 31st, 2015 at 8:29:58 PM permalink
Quote: RouleyPays

For the sake of argument, let's say that you personally recorded this data, so you have no fear of a mistake.


Remember that Stanford Statistics professor who had professionally machined shaved dice... it gave him a very slight edge but he still found that his graduate students made more errors recording the numbers than there was profit due to the shaved edges.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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January 31st, 2015 at 10:05:43 PM permalink
Class of machine will be important to help determine what may be happening.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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January 31st, 2015 at 10:54:12 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

The automated roulette setups have been beaten
when somebody figured out the long pattern.
Most of them have been tightened up now
and it's not so easy. Roulette Evolution got
taken for $250K a few years ago and as a
result many casinos dropped it.

If true and not just a rumor, this would certainly be news, especially if the casinos know, every time a legitimate situation like this happens we hear about it. Usually its a programming error, Any links?(doubtful)

I hear various rumors like this every time something fails. Most of the time casinos have a trial period for machines, possibly a deal casinos can't refuse. A big rush of installs happen over a certain time period. then the trial periods all end, the casino realizes the games are not profitable and they all start disappearing fast.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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February 1st, 2015 at 1:01:20 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

If true and not just a rumor, this would certainly be news, especially if the casinos know, every time a legitimate situation like this happens we hear about it. Usually its a programming error, Any links?(doubtful)



I posted about this before. I noticed a couple
of years ago that the RE machine was gone
from the Four Winds. The shift manager,
not the floor, not a dealer, not a punk who
manhandles the slots, but the guy in charge
of the casino on that shift, told me personally
that Blue Chip, 4 miles away in IN, had been
hit by a team out of Chicago for $250K. They
had figured out the algorithm by clocking the
numbers. As a result, FW got rid of it entirely,
and Fire Keepers down the road reduced the
time to place a bet to 15 seconds.

No links, how could there be a link. You think
you know it all, Axel, and you're really
so out of touch.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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February 1st, 2015 at 2:58:56 AM permalink
I did notice a few years ago that a RE machine was curiously out of service after what seemed to be a bigger than usual weekend of play (a few hours the other direction from Chicago). The excuse given was that it "needed a new bearing" and they were waiting for parts and a factory tech. (A Bearing? Really? Vaguely plausible, but high chances for BS, too.)

I can believe they were auditing and analyzing the results. I seem to recall a group of Chicago type guys playing it at max bet and doing fairly well.

I believe that house switched to an Interblock roulette game a few months later.
May the cards fall in your favor.

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