fergusleepark
fergusleepark
Joined: Nov 23, 2014
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November 23rd, 2014 at 9:11:35 AM permalink
Have a fledgling website "by a recreational roulette player for recreational roulette players" where I give some ideas.
"www.fergusleesroulette.co.uk" check "free roulette ideas".
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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November 23rd, 2014 at 9:17:18 AM permalink
Just checked it out. It's worthless. You can not eek out a small profit with your ideas or anyone else's. Nothing changes the fact that the house edge always wins in the long run.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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November 23rd, 2014 at 9:25:54 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

In Craps like to say "You can change the HE but not the EV" which relates to Free Odds.

Perhaps the general statement should be "You can change the HE but only by increasing the EV".



You aren't changing anything. The bet in front has a 1.4% HE and the bet behind has a 0% HE. Combining the bets to calculate HE makes no sense -- you already know the HE from the front....why make it confusing? Combine the bets if you're trying to calculate variance, maybe. But HE...no.

EV is the opposite of HE. HE = 1.4%. EV = -1.4%.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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November 23rd, 2014 at 10:02:17 AM permalink
Quote: RS

You aren't changing anything. The bet in front has a 1.4% HE and the bet behind has a 0% HE. Combining the bets to calculate HE makes no sense



I don't generally like looking at the HE of bet combinations, but make an exception for the free odds in Craps.

Why? because it is possible to tweak your action to include the zero HE bet.

Where it makes no sense is for a player to increase his action dramatically in order to play the free odds IMO. Ideally, a player's *total action* would be nearly the same, when the benefit of it is pretty clear .

This is an old debate. The Wizard covers it. He puts it a different way slightly.

Quote: wizard

What I suggest is betting less on the pass so that your need for action is mostly met by a full odds bet. For example if you are comfortable betting about $90 per bet, and the casino allows 5x odds, then I would drop the pass line bet to $15 and bet $75 on the odds. That will lower the overall house edge from 1.414% to 0.326%.



http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/odds-bets/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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November 24th, 2014 at 12:15:18 AM permalink
Quote: fergusleepark

Have a fledgling website "by a recreational roulette player for recreational roulette players" where I give some ideas.
"www.fergusleesroulette.co.uk" check "free roulette ideas".



All of your ideas involve betting random
against random, which is always an
epic fail. You have no real bet selection
at all.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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November 24th, 2014 at 1:12:47 AM permalink
And even if you have "superior" bet selection AKA guessing because you have a feeling, usually based on past results. It's meaningless Voodoo.

People fool themselves into thinking they can out think random events.

I notice the people who think they can beat simple table games like baccarat and roulette, just don't have what it takes to play any real advantage plays, especially if its complicated or they have to think differently, do research, use actual math or statistics.

There are real advantages out there, things like counting cards, VP, promotions, poker sports etc. All that requires actually learning and doing things like strategies and calculation. Thats why They resort to simple guessing games because its easy(they are just like ploppies). With some thought and knowledge using casino promotions rating cards and other methods even the worst games can be beaten. Yet they usually ignorantly ignore that stuff and ploppy it up.

Mike posted up a fairly easy sports system that has been profitable for many years, he even posts up the picks, yet people are ignorantly chasing losing -ev garbage systems.

I guess I should be thanking them and encouraging it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
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November 25th, 2014 at 5:58:02 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I notice the people who think they can beat simple table games like baccarat and roulette, just don't have what it takes to play any real advantage plays, especially if its complicated or they have to think differently, do research, use actual math or statistics.




Sorry Axel,

But I must say your statement come across as being a bit naive.

I am first and foremost an AP roulette player, and have at times, on rare occasions have been an AP bac. player. I must also say that I couldn't make a living off of the paltry edge that exists in the games that you actually believe are "beatable". I find counting cards to be a complete and utter waste of time.

I am not a system player. I do not attempt to exploit random events. On the contrary. I simply exploit inefficiencies that exist in the dealing procedures and equipment used within the games.

For the last several years, I have made a full time living as an AP.


-Keyser
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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November 25th, 2014 at 6:10:39 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser


But I must say your statement come across as being a bit naive.



I disagree. I wish more people would make
posts just like his more often, daily even. Spread
the word, the truth needs to be told and
maintained.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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November 25th, 2014 at 9:11:07 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Sorry Axel,

But I must say your statement come across as being a bit naive.

I am first and foremost an AP roulette player, and have at times, on rare occasions have been an AP bac. player. I must also say that I couldn't make a living off of the paltry edge that exists in the games that you actually believe are "beatable". I find counting cards to be a complete and utter waste of time.

I am not a system player. I do not attempt to exploit random events. On the contrary. I simply exploit inefficiencies that exist in the dealing procedures and equipment used within the games.

For the last several years, I have made a full time living as an AP.


-Keyser

I would be the first to agree with you under the right conditions. Obviously If there is a inefficiency in a dealing procedure or something wrong with the equipment IE hole carding, sloppy dealers, biased dice, manufactured marked cards, bad shuffles, , card steering, .card exposure, sequencing, Ace cutting, Shuffle tracking, edge sorting, glitches, Clocking, biased wheels. most of that actually fits this description "complicated or they have to think differently, do research, use actual math or statistics"

I don't "believe" counting and such is beatable, I know it is. Like you I rarely chase "paltry edges" I look for 3% or better depending on the situation. I play lower edges at times however thats not my priority. If I find a $5 FPDW somewhere you bet Ill be playing it.


I have stated a few times that just about every game can have the possibility of an advantage under the right conditions including keno, slots, bingo, craps, roulette, Baccarat, but usually those situations can be proven with math calculations. I've had some type of advantage on all of the games in that list and many more.

However with a %100 legitimate normal game playing within the rules, there is no system that works(and that's what i was talking about). It's obvious what 99% of these system players are talking about, Bet selection, money management, using past results and predicting/guessing future results.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
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November 26th, 2014 at 12:00:27 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I notice the people who think they can beat simple table games like baccarat and roulette, just don't have what it takes to play any real advantage plays, especially if its complicated or they have to think differently, do research, use actual math or statistics.



I guess my point is that you shouldn't dismiss such people. In a way, it's kind of funny, since the AP players that I work with that play these games, have the same condescending attitude towards the people that are still wasting their time counting cards and playing the games that you consider beatable.

-Keyser

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