andysif
Joined: Aug 8, 2011
• Posts: 430
June 16th, 2014 at 9:19:14 PM permalink
Yes I know the probability of drawing each combination is the same, BUT the payout is not.
More people to split the Jackpot, less you will receive.

So while "1,2,3,4,5,6" is "fun" to play, it would be nothing compare to the look on your face when you realize you hit the jackpot and so did 30 other people.

So basically the question boils down to: how to avoid popular combinations.

I basically don't buy numbers below 32.

Any other suggestions / funny ideas?
strictlyAP
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
• Posts: 983
June 16th, 2014 at 9:45:18 PM permalink
Don't play
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
andysif
Joined: Aug 8, 2011
• Posts: 430
June 16th, 2014 at 10:42:49 PM permalink
Quote: strictlyAP

Don't play

Now this brings up another topic.

While lottery is a -'ve expectation game, meaning that the probability of win * payout < the cost of the ticket, and this is certainly true most of the time, I would like to analyze it in a different context using marginal utility.

The law of diminishing marginal utility states that the first unit of consumption of a good or service yields more utility than the second and subsequent units, with a continuing reduction for greater amounts. Look at it backwards, and the marginal utility of the 1st dollar gained would be minimal when compared to the total utility of the whole amount gained.

So I would say, nominally, probability of win * payout < the cost of the ticket.
But when you consider marginal utility, probability of win * total utility of payout > marginal utility of the cost of the ticket (at least for the first few dollars)

In laymen terms, I won't cry over the dollar, but it would make me really happy if I win a million.
chefphydeaux
Joined: Feb 22, 2012
• Posts: 36
June 17th, 2014 at 12:53:14 AM permalink
I have a good friend who says the lottery is a voluntary stupidity tax upon the mathematically challenged.
While I doubt many, if any here, would disagree with that. Is a buck for a ticket on the Mega Millions or Power Ball, when its at a 200+ million jackpot ,that stupid that it should be avoided like the plague?
I can find a bucks worth of change in the drive thru of almost any fast foot joint. Skip a bag of chips with the sandwich at lunch, its really not too difficult to find a lousy buck.

I will say that dropping a C note a week on scratchers, and another on the BP and MM is just flat out stupidity.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 5855
June 17th, 2014 at 2:43:42 AM permalink
Quote: andysif

I basically don't buy numbers below 32.

If you're going to buy a ticket, this is one of the better ideas. I remember asking a chick at a gas station once if she could give me a quick pick with all numbers > 31, she said no, but I believe the computer can do it if the employee knows how.
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 1606
June 17th, 2014 at 3:06:33 AM permalink
On the very rare occasions I bought a ticket I generated random numbers either based on bank notes in my pocket or number plates on cars going by (previously most UK number plates had three digits so the last two were fairly random). Another much easier way is to use a pack of cards (assuming the numbers are 1 - 49 and you can use AK...2s = 1-13 etc).
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 13286
June 17th, 2014 at 3:19:53 AM permalink
Precisely. What's a buck or two. You will get a bigger bang for those bucks in Vegas though. Where the same attitude carries over: its only a buck on the sidebet ... each round.

No one has to order the most nutritious item on the menu or walk by the most direct route or be efficient before morning coffee, but if you restrain yourself each week of the lottery you will be better off when you do finally hit Vegas.
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
• Posts: 7075
June 17th, 2014 at 4:03:05 AM permalink
Lottery can be positive EV but not too often. You really only need one number above 31 to avoid splits with birthday numbers. Any effort really isn't worth the time so I just go with autopick.

The Ohio classic lotto just was won so I won't be playing again for probably 2-3 years. It was a 35 million dollar cash jackpot with odds of just under 14 million. Even positive, it's still just buying a fantasy.

Just to show how big a rip the lottery is, after the jackpot wasn't hit after so long, the lottery enacted a new rule to rip the spare change from jackpot increases making them whole amounts in hundred thousand amounts keeping the remainder.
They tried to kill us, Jimmy. They did. They're dirty f**king cops! *photo is not of an AP, just a morbidly obese hill billy. Jar Jar Binks was supposed to be the Sith Lord . Nathan is going to run and own this place
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010