TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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June 14th, 2014 at 5:23:58 PM permalink
Hi I was wondering if someone could run this through a simulator to see what the win/loss percentage would be

Starting bankroll: 5000
Strategy: skip the first roll after the initial comeout (no PSOs) and only bet first 5-6 rolls no matter what. All bets pressed full.
After the 6th roll the player will come down and wait for the next shooter no matter what

Win: session ends after 750-2000

If anyone could run this, I would truly appreciate it
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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June 14th, 2014 at 5:25:20 PM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

Hi I was wondering if someone could run this through a simulator to see what the win/loss percentage would be

Starting bankroll: 5000
Strategy: skip the first roll after the initial comeout (no PSOs) and only bet first 5-6 rolls no matter what.
After the 6th roll the player will come down and wait for the next shooter..

Win: session ends after 750-2000

If anyone could run this, I would truly appreciate it



the only thing this will do is make you last longer at the table because you are making fewer bets per hour. Sorry though I can not help with simulation.
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TheWolf713
TheWolf713
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June 14th, 2014 at 5:56:35 PM permalink
Thanks anyway... I was really trying to get the data to prove a point to someone...
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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June 16th, 2014 at 11:50:20 AM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

Strategy: skip the first roll after the initial comeout (no PSOs) and only bet first 5-6 rolls no matter what.

skip
so you wait until a point is established and will bet a max of 6 point rolls for each shooter.

I guess you bet $32 across to start

Quote: TheWolf713

All bets pressed full.

after each point roll?
cool!

or
after each win and only the number that won
less cool
actually boring in my opinion
Quote: TheWolf713

After the 6th roll the player will come down and wait for the next shooter no matter what

the 6th point roll
or the 6th roll after the first point is established?

example
6,6,7,11,8,8
no more bets this shooter
or
does this count as 2 point rolls for this shooter

Quote: TheWolf713

Win: session ends after 750-2000

per shooter is better as a stopping point I think

what is 750-2000?
-1,250
Sally
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TheWolf713
TheWolf713
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June 16th, 2014 at 6:00:06 PM permalink
@mustangsally

Bets….320 Inside
If it hits… Press it (i.e 120 goes to 240)
And stop after 6…. bring bets down regardless
and the 750-2000 was a profit range…. nothing major.. Just small hits
It wasn't about if it was boring or not, it was asked if it would produce a profit
If you can run it thanks in advance
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
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June 16th, 2014 at 7:01:09 PM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

it was asked if it would produce a profit



No.
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
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June 16th, 2014 at 7:33:32 PM permalink
How many times would it bust vs. win?? That's what Im looking for
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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June 16th, 2014 at 8:48:10 PM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

How many times would it bust vs. win?? That's what Im looking for



Wolf,
I created a scenario close to this a couple of years ago. Called it 'the Big Bet'. However, I did not wait for one roll, as PSO happens as often as Point, roll, SO. It's just that we are all programmed to remember the PSO.
I think I went with $640 across.
No pressure.
4 rolls of the dice, and all the bets came down.

To prevent major boredom, and from missing a good roll, if the shooter made a point, I would repeat the above.

I would run 300 rolls as a game session, and end that game at the next 7 out. (about 4 hours of craps) I would hyper run 100 of these 'sessions' at a time, and view the graph results. Rinse and Repeat. I did this 50 times or so.

The good news was this scheme consistently seemed to win 65% of the time.

The bad news is, the 35% losses were almost always major bust outs, and far exceeded the 65% wins.
Increasing my Buy-In increased my win % a bit more, but also caused bigger, and thus, more total losses.

Conclusion.
I gave up on this idea, due to the massive bust outs. I liked the idea of winning most of the time, but in the end, I find just betting $135 across and pressing while taking partial payouts seems to work out better for me.

True story.
I had promised myself that if I ever got up enough in one game, I was going to go with the mother of all bets, for this $25 player.

At Beau Rivage, I had a monster roll, and was up $6,000 after my roll. So the next time the dice came to me, I set the point, and then went $1040 across (they have Buy on 4,5,,9,10) so that is the reason for the odd amount). I would leave it up for 2 rolls only. Win or draw, they all came down after 2 rolls.
First time I got paid once, and pulled the bets down, after the draw, second roll.
Second time, I got paid once, and then rolled a 7 out to lose the $1080.
Third time I went PSO, and lost the $1040 with no pay out.
So in the space of my three shoots, I got paid about $500, and lost $2,120.
Experiment OVER.
While I still think it is a decent way to play, and I SHOULD have done much better, fact was I got crushed.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
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June 17th, 2014 at 11:02:23 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

The good news was this scheme consistently seemed to win 65% of the time.

The bad news is, the 35% losses were almost always major bust outs, and far exceeded the 65% wins.
Increasing my Buy-In increased my win % a bit more, but also caused bigger, and thus, more total losses.



That sounds about right. Win a little bit 2/3 of the time, lose big 1/3 of the time. Losses always exceed wins eventually.
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 315
June 17th, 2014 at 4:31:20 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Wolf,
I created a scenario close to this a couple of years ago. Called it 'the Big Bet'. However, I did not wait for one roll, as PSO happens as often as Point, roll, SO. It's just that we are all programmed to remember the PSO.
I think I went with $640 across.
No pressure.
4 rolls of the dice, and all the bets came down.

To prevent major boredom, and from missing a good roll, if the shooter made a point, I would repeat the above.

I would run 300 rolls as a game session, and end that game at the next 7 out. (about 4 hours of craps) I would hyper run 100 of these 'sessions' at a time, and view the graph results. Rinse and Repeat. I did this 50 times or so.

The good news was this scheme consistently seemed to win 65% of the time.

The bad news is, the 35% losses were almost always major bust outs, and far exceeded the 65% wins.
Increasing my Buy-In increased my win % a bit more, but also caused bigger, and thus, more total losses.

Conclusion.
I gave up on this idea, due to the massive bust outs. I liked the idea of winning most of the time, but in the end, I find just betting $135 across and pressing while taking partial payouts seems to work out better for me.

True story.
I had promised myself that if I ever got up enough in one game, I was going to go with the mother of all bets, for this $25 player.

At Beau Rivage, I had a monster roll, and was up $6,000 after my roll. So the next time the dice came to me, I set the point, and then went $1040 across (they have Buy on 4,5,,9,10) so that is the reason for the odd amount). I would leave it up for 2 rolls only. Win or draw, they all came down after 2 rolls.
First time I got paid once, and pulled the bets down, after the draw, second roll.
Second time, I got paid once, and then rolled a 7 out to lose the $1080.
Third time I went PSO, and lost the $1040 with no pay out.
So in the space of my three shoots, I got paid about $500, and lost $2,120.
Experiment OVER.
While I still think it is a decent way to play, and I SHOULD have done much better, fact was I got crushed.



Thanks @RaleighCraps….
That was the answer I was looking for…

I was trying to convey this message to another player…. Thanks.
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain

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