1 full unit?Quote:endermike1) Using flat betting on the banker and quitting when 1 full unit (or more) up or 100 hands have been played

2) Based on 10,000,000 independent attempts (about 1200 seconds run time)

Prob of winning (quitting with 101): .8372

a win on a $20 bet nets $19 after the $1 comm

I ran a 101 unit bankroll (2020) sim and stopped when the bankroll hit 2039 or 100 trials

that seems more than fair to quit after the first win.

here is the value calculated using a transition matrix for success = 88.483079%

from a quick 1 million sim I get 884,658 attempts that were successful = 88.4658%

grouped data

items: 1000000

minimum value: 1073.00

first quartile: 2039.00

median: 2039.00

third quartile: 2051.00

maximum value: 2057.00

mean value: 2015.44

midrange: 1565.00

range: 984.00

interquartile range: 12.00

mean abs deviation: 51.44

sample variance (n): 8496.01

sample variance (n-1): 8496.02

sample std dev (n): 92.17

sample std dev (n-1): 92.17

"how do you calculate this?"

either simulate and/or use a spreadsheet or a program to raise a transition matrix up to any power (number of trials)

I think the OP may too be bummed out that the probability is not closer to 99.95% or even higher.

just remember that the longer one plays against a house edge game, the less chance that player has of coming out even or ahead

in other words

the chances increase with every trial that the player will not be even or ahead no matter how many trials are completed each day

Sally

Quote:mustangsally1 full unit?

a win on a $20 bet nets $19 after the $1 comm

Yup, it means a win on the first hand isn't enough. I just had the sim pay .95 of a unit for a win and lose 1 full unit for a loss.

OK,Quote:endermikeYup, it means a win on the first hand isn't enough. I just had the sim pay .95 of a unit for a win and lose 1 full unit for a loss.

OP has now two sets of sim data for Banker bet

and I think most Bac players would disagree that

the Player bet has the higher probability of winning just 1 unit over 100 hands played than the Banker bet

even with paying the comm

I did at first

Sally

added:

my matrix shows with a 2020 bankroll betting $20 and trying to hit a target of 2040

success = 84.471064%

latest:

how about something I think would not work well at hitting a 1 unit win

Single 0 roulette

betting 2 columns (or sections) so bet 2 units to win 1

not much variance here, my first guess was yuck, but a nice win probability

It does even better than Craps Don't Pass or Pass or Player bet in Bac

I had to check it twice and sim it too.

interesting

91.549408%

100 spins max, bankroll of 201 units and target goal of 202 units

Quote:zenith27i had thought of that idea..i would just wait for a 5-streak player hands and bet on banker in baccarat. I would invest 10k as my bankroll and win limit is 1k with loss limit 5k..after win, i could go home and comeback tommorow. thats 30k a month.means tripple your investment in

1 month

varmenti?

Quote:mustangsally

Single 0 roulette

betting 2 columns (or sections) so bet 2 units to win 1

not much variance here, my first guess was yuck, but a nice win probability

It does even better than Craps Don't Pass or Pass or Player bet in Bac

I had to check it twice and sim it too.

interesting

91.549408%

100 spins max, bankroll of 201 units and target goal of 202 units

That is interesting- what was the average loss?

Quote:endermikeYup, it means a win on the first hand isn't enough. I just had the sim pay .95 of a unit for a win and lose 1 full unit for a loss.

Yes that is true, I was just thinking that if you were 1 banker win infront late in the spins the commission would have eaten up any profit

first something to compare againstQuote:Walkinshaw30tThat is interesting- what was the average loss?

recall the Player bet in Bac 101 unit bankroll and 1 unit win goal and 100 max bets

my calculated values - faster and the most accurate using a transition matrix

(verified with a simulation - slower and the least accurate)

Prob of winning (quitting with 102): 0.907286313 <<< this value is much higher when removing the time factor as I pointed out in an earlier post

Prob of pushing (quitting with 101 after 100 hands): 0.001546102 (1 in 647)

Prob of losing (quitting with less than 101 after 100 hands): 0.091167586

Avg loss, given you quit with less than 101 after 100 hands: -12.37590892 units

expected value on this strategy: -0.220995423 units

Now the Single 0 Roulette making 2, 2to1 type bets (columns or sections with prob of winning at 24/37)

Bankroll 201 and target goal at 202

Prob of winning (quitting with 202): 0.91549408

Prob of pushing (quitting with 201 after 100 hands): 0.00 <<< either lose 2 units or win 1 unit

Prob of losing (quitting with less than 201 after 100 hands): 0.08450592

Avg loss, given you quit with less than 201 after 100 hands: -13.97135554 units

expected value on this strategy: -0.18066225 units

use (y)our wings and fly!

Sally

now 3 units are required to be wagered and one can lose 3 or 1 or win 1 or 3 and actually overshoot the 1 unit win goal (301 bankroll)

that should lower the probability of at least a 1 unit win and it does to just 89.183220%

and raises the avg loss to -18.56314162 units

Sally

Quote:mustangsallywith those type of bets (combining even money bets for 18/37)

now 3 units are required to be wagered and one can lose 3 or 1 or win 1 or 3 and actually overshoot the 1 unit win goal (301 bankroll)

that should lower the probability of at least a 1 unit win and it does to just 89.183220%

and raises the avg loss to -18.56314162 units

Sally

Sorry I should have explained myself, I mean betting 1/3rd of a unit on each.