Thread Rating:

AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
December 16th, 2013 at 3:44:52 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

The bets with the lowest house edge are, by definition, an even money bet, aka 50/50, or as close to it as you can get.



How do you figure?

The odds bet in craps on a 4 or 10 pays 2-1 and it has 0 house edge.
Buying the 4 or 10 for $25 (and paying $1 commission on wins) pays 49-25 (1.96-1) has a house edge of 1.33%.

On the other hand, betting red in roulette on a double-zero wheel is even money and it has > 5% house edge.

Payouts are uncorrelated to house edge. You can have a long-shot bet with a low edge, and you have have an even-money bet with a high edge.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 99
  • Posts: 14232
December 16th, 2013 at 4:39:07 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

How do you figure?

The odds bet in craps on a 4 or 10 pays 2-1 and it has 0 house edge.
Buying the 4 or 10 for $25 (and paying $1 commission on wins) pays 49-25 (1.96-1) has a house edge of 1.33%.

On the other hand, betting red in roulette on a double-zero wheel is even money and it has > 5% house edge.

Payouts are uncorrelated to house edge. You can have a long-shot bet with a low edge, and you have have an even-money bet with a high edge.



You and I are slightly talking past each other. In craps, for example, can you place an odds bet without first placing the base bet to which it's correlated, which has a HE built in? If you can (other than piggybacking on someone else's bets) then I learned something. But that also assumes the house will allow you to place a freebet chip on an odds bet. I've never successfully done that, which just means I haven't seen it, not that there's not a house somewhere that will allow it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
December 16th, 2013 at 4:50:41 PM permalink
My only point here is that it's not true that the bets with the lowest house edge are the ones with the closes to even-money payouts. The odds bet might have been contrived (since, as you point out, you must make a -EV bet first) but buying the 4 is a perfect example.

Buying the 4 for $25 (and paying $1 commission on wins only) pays 1.96 to 1 (nowhere near even money) and has a house edge of only 1.333%.

Betting on red in double-zero roulette pays exactly even money and has a huge house edge of over 5%.

Specifically, you wrote:

Quote: beachbumbabs

What is incorrect about that (my) statement? You and I said exactly the same thing, assuming the house is not offering +EV in the base game of a bet (which they "tend" not to do). The bets with the lowest house edge are, by definition, an even money bet, aka 50/50, or as close to it as you can get.



And I'm saying that that's not true -- the bets with the lowest house edges are not necessarily the even-money bets.

Maybe you're using "even-money" to mean something different than usual? An even-money bet is any bet that pays 1-to-1. It can have a massive house edge. I can offer you even money if you can flip a coin 28 times and get 28 consecutive heads. My edge is essentially 100% but it's still an even-money bet.

  • Jump to: