Baccarat - Tie Bets
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I know mathematically there can be a shoe of no ties or the tie can come very late in the shoe. But in my last 5 monsths of Baccarat at Fallsview I have never seen a no tie shoe. I repeat I am saying "I haven't seen any" there might have no tie shoes at Fallsview when I wasn't there. And when I spoke to few people at the Casino who claim to be coming there since the opening of the Fallsview. Almost everyon I met said they haven't seen a no tie shoe.
If someone could please enlighten me on the following queries of mine that would be great.
1. Are the shufflers which the casino use in the High Limit Room/ Chinese Baccarat section random shufflers or the Casino knows / sets the patter of cards ?
2. Can the casino change the pattern of cards in remotely ? In between or begining of the shoe ?
3. Has anyone seen a no tie shoe in the Fallsview Casino or any real Casino ? I know the simulations that the wizard has or the dumps of simultion data show its possible and if I am not wrong 182 in 10000 shoes or something. But what about personal experience has anyone seen any ?
4. Has the Tie chasing system been tried by anyone else in real casino ?
Like I said in the beginning I am aware the system doesnt work mathematically, but I am looking forward to hear from everyone in the forum.
Quote: novicegamblerI am a novice gambler like my name suggests. I play at the Fallsview Casino most of the time. The first betting patern that I thought will work is the Tie bet. I have made my own table which helps me to chase down a tie bet for upto 40 hands making around $25 - $40 profit or upto 32 hands making around $100 - $150 profit each time I chase it. I have tried these sytem a couple of times in the low limits Baccarat and have made steady profit of $1000.00 each day I tried this. I have only played this system 5-6 times at the Casino and never lost my bankroll.
I know mathematically there can be a shoe of no ties or the tie can come very late in the shoe. But in my last 5 monsths of Baccarat at Fallsview I have never seen a no tie shoe. I repeat I am saying "I haven't seen any" there might have no tie shoes at Fallsview when I wasn't there. And when I spoke to few people at the Casino who claim to be coming there since the opening of the Fallsview. Almost everyon I met said they haven't seen a no tie shoe.
If someone could please enlighten me on the following queries of mine that would be great.
1. Are the shufflers which the casino use in the High Limit Room/ Chinese Baccarat section random shufflers or the Casino knows / sets the patter of cards ?
2. Can the casino change the pattern of cards in remotely ? In between or begining of the shoe ?
3. Has anyone seen a no tie shoe in the Fallsview Casino or any real Casino ? I know the simulations that the wizard has or the dumps of simultion data show its possible and if I am not wrong 182 in 10000 shoes or something. But what about personal experience has anyone seen any ?
4. Has the Tie chasing system been tried by anyone else in real casino ?
Like I said in the beginning I am aware the system doesnt work mathematically, but I am looking forward to hear from everyone in the forum.
I'm offering a professional answer to your post only because there are quite a few Members that show interest in the game.
1) Tie Pays 8 to 1
2) I've never seen a "Baccarat Scoreboard" not show a tie in all the times I've ever played the game.
3) The Casino Auto shufflers do exactly what they are meant to do and that is to shuffle cards.
4) Casino's can not alter the game play as the rules of the game never change.
5) every shoe is completely Random and if Noticeable patterns Occur it is strictly random shoes producing a law of average.
6) Many people chase a tie day after day after day. But keep in mind, those that do follow the Runs on the scoreboard. Example: if the second Line shows the first "Tie" then many will follow that as "The Tie Line" placing a small wager on the tie line bet when due.
Since the Dragon Bets were introduced, the Tie Bet doesn't get played much because of the 30 to 1 Odds and other Odds paying out for Dragon bet makes it a much better bet than the Tie Bet.
I do recall a person attempting a Martingale style betting pattern for Chasing a Tie, but never saw him much after that. Maybe he became a millionaire from his endeavors or just plain Lost his shirt and gave up gambling altogether.
Hope this answers all your questions.
Quote: soxfanI've personally played over 10 000 baccarat shoes in my life and have only seen one shoe with no tie outcomes, hey hey.
Are you referring to real time Casino play or online included ? And could you please recall do you regarly see one tie shoes ?
What by your experience is the minimum number of ties you expect in a shoe usually ??
Quote: novicegambler@varmenti - thanks for the reply
Do keep in mind the Law of average I see is 6-8 ties per average shoe spread out over an average of 75 hands.
Sometimes 2-3 in a row, but average spread is close to 10 regular hands compared to a tie. This is all real shoe play.
1. I would like to think all the shufflers are random. I think in the state of NJ, the Casino Commission regulate all machines and equipments.
2. Once the cards are shuffled and cut, (some casino counted to the last fourteen card and separate with the yellow card, some would use a pre marked point approximately one deck of card to insert the yellow card). And when the yellow card is out; some casino use that as the last hand and some use it as next to the last hand of that shoe. In short, once the shuffled card are in the shoe, the pattern of events can not be change...... I hope that was your question.
3. I have never encountered a shoe dealt without a tie. The least tie I'd seen in a shoe was 2 ties; out of playing Baccarat for 30+ years.
4. I've seen gamblers bet on tie the first and last hand, also the most common are repeat and skip one tie. I personally do not bet tie.
That's as far as I know in regard to your questions.
And NO I am not going to give potsies pawn shop 5k to hear it.
Quote: novicegamblerI am a novice gambler like my name suggests. I play at the Fallsview Casino most of the time. The first betting patern that I thought will work is the Tie bet. I have made my own table which helps me to chase down a tie bet for upto 40 hands making around $25 - $40 profit or upto 32 hands making around $100 - $150 profit each time I chase it. I have tried these sytem a couple of times in the low limits Baccarat and have made steady profit of $1000.00 each day I tried this. I have only played this system 5-6 times at the Casino and never lost my bankroll.
I know mathematically there can be a shoe of no ties or the tie can come very late in the shoe. But in my last 5 monsths of Baccarat at Fallsview I have never seen a no tie shoe. I repeat I am saying "I haven't seen any" there might have no tie shoes at Fallsview when I wasn't there. And when I spoke to few people at the Casino who claim to be coming there since the opening of the Fallsview. Almost everyon I met said they haven't seen a no tie shoe.
If someone could please enlighten me on the following queries of mine that would be great.
1. Are the shufflers which the casino use in the High Limit Room/ Chinese Baccarat section random shufflers or the Casino knows / sets the patter of cards ?
2. Can the casino change the pattern of cards in remotely ? In between or begining of the shoe ?
3. Has anyone seen a no tie shoe in the Fallsview Casino or any real Casino ? I know the simulations that the wizard has or the dumps of simultion data show its possible and if I am not wrong 182 in 10000 shoes or something. But what about personal experience has anyone seen any ?
4. Has the Tie chasing system been tried by anyone else in real casino ?
Like I said in the beginning I am aware the system doesnt work mathematically, but I am looking forward to hear from everyone in the forum.
You're a Fraud Novicegambler (shawn) I waited for you at the Casino from 9:45am to 3pm and you didn't even show. You suck azz. Go back to India where you belong ya big flamer.,
Quote: BlueEZYou're a Fraud Novicegambler (shawn) I waited for you at the Casino from 9:45am to 3pm and you didn't even show. You suck azz. Go back to India where you belong ya big flamer.,
Can you write a song with the word 'nuke' in it?
There's a good lad..
Quote: BlueEZYou're a Fraud Novicegambler (shawn) I waited for you at the Casino from 9:45am to 3pm and you didn't even show. You suck azz. Go back to India where you belong ya big flamer.,
Hi, gr8blueez!! LOL!
Quote: Beethoven9thHi, gr8blueez!! LOL!
No worries, the fun will begin shortly after I get Nuked on here. Grab some chairs cuz it's gonna get hot in here soon.
I challenge the admin to nuke my new account and I will Destroy all his forums. Don't mess with the "Nice Guy"
Quote: BlueEZNo worries, the fun will begin shortly after I get Nuked on here. Grab some chairs cuz it's gonna get hot in here soon.
I challenge the admin to nuke my new account and I will Destroy all his forums. Don't mess with the "Nice Guy"
Did they teach you that at Microsoft?
Or did Donald Trump teach you that?
Or maybe it was one of the women you met on that dating site?
LOL!
Quote: BlueEZNo worries, the fun will begin shortly after I get Nuked on here. Grab some chairs cuz it's gonna get hot in here soon.
I challenge the admin to nuke my new account and I will Destroy all his forums. Don't mess with the "Nice Guy"
Varminty had somebody read this to him and now he's an expert:
Quote: Beethoven9thI wonder who will register next? LOL!!
Whoever it is, we all know it'll be this guy:
The tie system that I have ALSO been working on is the following
Its a modified Martingale system to chase Ties. The system tries to chase it down while trying to make a small profit
Reasons I believe it might work:
I have never seen a shoe with no ties
People in this forum have confirmed me that they have never seen a shoe with no ties
Its possible to generate profit from a shoe if we can chase down a tie
Because of the huge house edge casino wont turn on the heat
Reasons I am not concentrating to much on the system:
Not worth the risk as the profit levels are very low 6-15 units profit against a risk of losing 1000 units
I havent been able to deduce a modified martingale system to chase ties more than 40 hands, and a shoe has approx 75 hands
Quote: 98ClubsThough I have not seen a 1 or 0 Tie shoe, I have seen this one at the Wizard of Odds site. This statistic screen capture is the most I've experienced live or on-line.
Ran into a few dealers and players at the Wynn and stated that you can catch the tie bet with the bead road above. Is there any truth to this?
Quote: DMSCRQuote: 98ClubsThough I have not seen a 1 or 0 Tie shoe, I have seen this one at the Wizard of Odds site. This statistic screen capture is the most I've experienced live or on-line.
Ran into a few dealers and players at the Wynn and stated that you can catch the tie bet with the bead road above. Is there any truth to this?
As far as my observation goes. I dont believe in the tie line or most the pattern on the Baccarat score board. But like I mentioned most of the times the ties can be chased down with a profit
A score card like this is like a gold mine. I have seen usually 3-4 ties in a shoe usually and around 15 max
Secondly, what is the Limit spread on the table?
Standard - 8 decks, stop-card after card #400, average burn by standard method 6.5 cards.
Burn - 10-J-Q-K is 9 additional cards, an Ace burns no further cards, and pips 2-9 burn an additional (pip-1) cards.
Cards per round - According to WoO site 4.93881885.
Rounds per shoe - (400 - 6.5) / 4.93881885 = 79 rounds... on the 80th round the stop card is exposed, indicating that
the 81st round is the last round.
All stats here provided by the WoO site, and standardized.
Quote: 98ClubsThe standardized average is 7.707636 ties in 81 rounds or about 2 in 21 rounds.
Standard - 8 decks, stop-card after card #400, average burn by standard method 6.5 cards.
Burn - 10-J-Q-K is 9 additional cards, an Ace burns no further cards, and pips 2-9 burn an additional (pip-1) cards.
Cards per round - According to WoO site 4.93881885.
Rounds per shoe - (400 - 6.5) / 4.93881885 = 79 rounds... on the 80th round the stop card is exposed, indicating that
the 81st round is the last round.
All stats here provided by the WoO site, and standardized.
Thanks, but the table limits will be important, as well. The first thing I have to do is see if he can even theoretically have the system survive an entire shoe with no ties.
Quote: Mission146Thanks, but the table limits will be important, as well. The first thing I have to do is see if he can even theoretically have the system survive an entire shoe with no ties.
The tie bet pays 8 to 1. Based on the table limit you can bet 20% of the min and max.
Table limit:
Fallsview: Mini Bac - $25 to $3000 : Tie bet - $1 to $600
Fallsview: Baccarat High Limits - $100 to $15000 : Tie Bet - $20 to $3000
Caesars: Baccarat High Limit - $100 to $20000 : Tie Bet -$20 to $4000
Thats the reason I havent followed the system a lot. Coz the max I have been able to chase a tie without reaching the tie bet limit is 30-35 hands.
ANd thats very risky to pursue.
Quote: IbeatyouracesTable limits here are usually $15-$5000
Thats a great spread, I need to see how much can we chase down on that
Quote: novicegamblerThe tie bet pays 8 to 1. Based on the table limit you can bet 20% of the min and max.
The first thing you need is a Tie Bet that pays 9-1.
Does it pay 9-1 where you reference, IBeatYourAces?
Quote: 98ClubsDo they limit the max bet on the tie? This would be important. 5G's on 8/1 might go, or it might not (at such table... naturally a private game allows).
Here we have a limit if 20% of min and max table limit
If the difference is significant, then you may have stumbled on something.
Then there remains to show that it gives you the advantage.
I am doubtful about both.
I tried a Martingale approach and succeeded in all tables but 1 table.
Martingale used 5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45,50,55,60,65,70,75,80
Tie Bankroll = $685.00
Goal to male per table averaged $127.00 (Not bad for just 20-30 minutes) that's equivalent to $250.00 per hour extra income.
I see approx 2-3 ties on average at the real tables in 30 hands. (Equivalent to 1/10) so far on at least 25/25 tables just in the last day and is consistent.
This is good bet and also works good with Craps betting ONLY The "Any Seven" bet that pays 4 to 1 and good time to play is during the come out roll.
graduated from high school. Almost...
Quote: EvenBobGoldmember, getting that card must feel like you finally
graduated from high school. Almost...
I wouldn't say high school. It's more like the feeling of losing my virginity all over again. It sucks that you have to gamble $3000.00 per hr to earn 100 points per day.
Quote: GoldMemberFor those that care. at the $25.00 minimum tables, you can bet the "Tie" anytime without having to bet a $25 chip on any banker/player hand. I also experimented the Tie betting in the last couple of days and approx 25+ shoes.
I tried a Martingale approach and succeeded in all tables but 1 table.
Martingale used 5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45,50,55,60,65,70,75,80
Tie Bankroll = $685.00
Goal to male per table averaged $127.00 (Not bad for just 20-30 minutes) that's equivalent to $250.00 per hour extra income.
I see approx 2-3 ties on average at the real tables in 30 hands. (Equivalent to 1/10) so far on at least 25/25 tables just in the last day and is consistent.
This is good bet and also works good with Craps betting ONLY The "Any Seven" bet that pays 4 to 1 and good time to play is during the come out roll.
Wow great information this post.
That bet progression is NOT a Martingale. With a standard Marty you double your stake after every loss. Since you were going up by units of 5, call it a 5 dollar negative progression or something, it's definitely not a Martingale.
Also, why bet the Any Seven when you can split your bet into 3 and hop the 7 all 3 ways (6-1, 5-2, 4-3)? The Any Seven is the rare sucker bet for which there is a BETTER BET ON THE TABLE if you just know to ask for it.
Quote: AcesAndEightsWow great information this post.
That bet progression is NOT a Martingale. With a standard Marty you double your stake after every loss. Since you were going up by units of 5, call it a 5 dollar negative progression or something, it's definitely not a Martingale.
Also, why bet the Any Seven when you can split your bet into 3 and hop the 7 all 3 ways (6-1, 5-2, 4-3)? The Any Seven is the rare sucker bet for which there is a BETTER BET ON THE TABLE if you just know to ask for it.
Aces,
Why do you argue on the merits with a guy who plays on faith?
Quote: beachbumbabsAces,
Why do you argue on the merits with a guy who plays on faith?
That's a great point. I've taken to blocking most of these threads these days, better for my blood pressure.
But since I just took a few months break from the forum, I guess I had to get my Angry Math on at least a few times, just to make sure any new members know which side of the fence I'm on :).
I'll try to keep it civil moving forward...
Not for those that care rather for those that want to knowQuote: GoldMemberFor those that care. at the $25.00 minimum tables, you can bet the "Tie" anytime without having to bet a $25 chip on any banker/player hand. I also experimented the Tie betting in the last couple of days and approx 25+ shoes.
I tried a Martingale approach and succeeded in all tables but 1 table.
that one was no fun huh?
player v
no real Baccarat player will bet the Tie using any progression.
you know that to be true IF you ARE a real Baccarat player.
Most real Baccarat players are Asian.
yes, there are exceptions. maybe your are one of those.
I happen to be Asian-Italian.
I know. too bad.
poor poor pitiful me
tiny adjustment to your numbersQuote: GoldMemberMartingale used 5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45,50,55,60,65,70,75,80
Tie Bankroll = $685.00
Goal to male per table averaged $127.00 (Not bad for just 20-30 minutes) that's equivalent to $250.00 per hour extra income.
Tie Bankroll = $680.00
average win per table = $98.40 not $127
the average you show of 127 (127.5) comes from summing
40, 75, 105, 130, 150, 165, 175, 180, 180, 175, 165, 150, 130, 105, 75, 40
and divide by 16.
Not correct player v.
No real Baccarat player would have made that mistake.
each step to step probability is not equal.
any real Baccarat player knows that to be true.
we, the real Baccarat players, sum after each value is multiplied by the probability of the Tie on that exact hand.
so
p, q*p, q^2*p, q^3*p,...,q^15*p
The overall probability of a win over 16 hands = 0.798079983 (yes, call it 80%)
a loss probability is 1 - 0.798079983 call that 20%
NO real Baccarat player ever makes a series of bets that only wins 80% of the time with an average win of $98.40
all real Baccarat players know expected value
pwin*$98.40 - ploss*$680 = -$-58.78
Ohhh (shaking her head)
casino loves player v
why such the large effort to be noticed?
I sing too, not like you or even LindaR (I wish)
I would never show my large
Sally
Full Asian, so I know what I'm talking about :)
Those people are called "the people who helped build this beautiful casino", AKA suckers.
