I have a winning system but I don't know how to properly prove it. Any suggestions?

My favorite connotation of someone with a betting system is, "I know it works, and a programmer is supposed to verify it for me, but (insert excuse here)...."

https://easy.vegas/gambling/betting-system-challenge

It's pretty easy to make a betting system that will pass a test of a few thousand events given a large enough amount of money.

When you get to hundreds of millions of events, the systems, in general, all get destroyed.

It's usually not computer programmers who come up with winning betting systems as a result. Skills to solve these type of problems are introduced in the first few weeks of programming classes.

Quote: varmenti

Both Methods and earnings.

Given the right sort of details, I could program up a simulation of your system and run it over millions of hands/decks.

This wouldn't be hard-core mathematical proof, but it would show the general pattern.

When simulating I normally try to show a range of results for 'medium term' play. E.g: if 10,000 people played a system for a reasonable (one year) amount of time, what would be the range of results they'd see.

PM me, if you want to go this direction.

He doesn't want to see that, he doesn't care. He wants to know
why HE wins so he can prove to us that he does win. For some
reason the money isn't enough, his ego is also involved.

I coded up the MP204 betting strategy, and the thanks I got for MP was "you coded it wrong" because he couldn't understand the code.

When prompted by another member (on axis craps forum) why it was wrong (I'm not sure if it's wrong or not, but MP said it was), he never answered.

Most of these strategies are simple to prove they don't work providing you can demonstrate that a house edge still exists. You can't overcome the effect. You can postpone it, but you can't overcome it. Eventually the sequence of numbers or outcomes that the system is betting against ultimately occurs.

In other words all betting systems, in-effect, are creating a bet against a worst-case sequence of events happening in a random sequence.

Eventually all sequences of events happen randomly. ALL OF THEM. You can bet everything against any sequence, but it will eventually occur.

Quote: Ahigh

I coded up the MP204 betting strategy, and the thanks I got for MP was "you coded it wrong" because he couldn't understand the code.

Quite. I don't really care too much if anyone believes my results (Rob Singer never did, but I could never work out what I had wrong...)

The challenge is interesting to me, which is why I've done it in the past. If the person asking doesn't like the answer, but can't show me the bug, or I can't find it, then that's their problem. I still probably got something out of the exercise.

I don't have a Baccarat simulator in my tool kit right now. It would be an excuse to make one.

(deleted).

Varmenti, I have enjoyed your threads and comments immensely. I also respect your willingness to submit yourself to the slings and arrows that have come your way on this forum. You clearly are endeared and committed to your baccarat betting system/method, which, if I understand correctly, is simply applying a betting progression and betting into streaks. You try to hedge your bets by playing both Banker and Player, but that's a losing proposition. I think you would be more convincing if you were able to back up your assertions about the success of your playing style by applying math to explain why it works. But you can't. You are dealing with some real heavyweights in the math arena on this forum and you will never convince them (or me) that your sytem works if you can't do the math to prove it. Why is it that you don't understand that no betting progression or system can possibly overcome the HE long term?

You claim to be a "Professional Gambler" with 25 years experience. Yet you throw out some assertions and observations that I find highly amusing:

1. "The only dealers that deserve tips are the ones that work the skilled games such as Roulette, The Big Wheel and any other game that involves the skill of the dealer." And later: "I tip roulette dealers 10x 1.00 right from the start because I like to put them in the game, I also tip 3-5 chips every time they roll one of my numbers. These are deserving tips because of their skill to roll those numbers." Do you really think dealers can influence or control where the wheel winds up or the number that little ball in Roulette lands on? That is a comment I expect to hear from a complete novice, a noob. Not a so-called professional. Please back up your assertion with evidence. You can't. It's not possible.

2. "Casinos have a Centralized Server that determines what machines will decide to pay that day based on the income of the whole. Video slots are not independent as they were back in the day." What casino has a central server that does this? Not only would the casino run the risk of losing their license, they have no reason to do it in the first place. Their HE gets them the money. Your assertion is just plain stupid.

3. And my favorite: "Think of getting dealt a hand of Black jack where you are dealt an 18 against a dealers Ace showing. Take the safe way and buy insurance." No professional would give that kind of advice without counting cards. If you play basic strategy, then you would never insure an 18 or any other hand against a dealer Ace. If you understood the math, then you would know why your statement is incorrect. But I sense you violate your own dictum: "6) Basic Knowledge of the Game. (Take 20-60 minutes and learn how the game is played)"

Sorry, but a professional gambler you ain't.

Does anyone know baccarat players being banned because of their skills?

Quote: Pabo

you will never convince them (or me) that your sytem works if you can't do the math to prove it. Why is it that you don't understand that no betting progression or system can possibly overcome the HE long term?

If you think he's bad, just wait until his buddy gr8player is un-banned tomorrow. gr8player says that he can beat the odds vs. the house, and he compared himself to David beating Goliath and the 1980 US Hockey Team beating the Soviets. LOL!!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/14250-why-baccarat/3/#post249280

The only pros bring banned are the "sort" players.

The only pros bring banned are the "sort" players. (Edge sorting)

Thanks

Ha! I've been equally amused by gr8player's musings. Pair varmenti with gr8player and you have a wonderful sequel to the movie "Dumb and Dumber." Not intending to insult either individual, just their methods/systems. In fact, I believe they are really sincere in their beliefs, but their personal attachment and irrational beliefs in their systems leave them closed minded and obstinate. As the saying goes: You can lead a horse to water, etc. These horses simply refuse to drink.

If varmenti has been winning of late, then I am happy for him. I hope he continues to get the money. But his success is probably due more to plain good luck/variance than real skill. Heck, I enjoy playing baccarat as a break from blackjack. I do derive a certain perverse pleasure, though, from betting against the table, especially when it's full of superstitious people. The looks and the comments--usually in a language I don't understand--I get are worth the price of admission. Sorta like being a wrong bettor at craps. Highly entertaining.

Quote: AxelWolf

intersting I will have to do that i have yet to read most of his 11k posts I just fireguard the first ones were more just more nonsense like the other 10999 (:

Outstanding!!! +2

Quote: varmenti

I have a winning system but I don't know how to properly prove it.

There are dozens of people on this forum who have the mathematical skills to verify the validity of your system. First they will want to know what game it is for. Then they will want to know the rules you follow, and once they know that they will be able to calculate your expected return from your strategy. If it is over 100%, then you really do have a winning system.

A number of players have found winning systems. One of the first was Joseph Jagger, who in 1873 found that some of the roulette wheels at the casino of Monte Carlo had sufficient bias in favor of certain numbers to enable him to win. In the 1950's Edward Thorp invented his card counting system in blackjack. Many people have used it since and made money. Most recently, the Wizard of this forum has found that there are some video poker machines that favor the player rather than the casino if played properly.

I have looked at your threads and have found some on the game of baccarat. I think you give a good description of a progression system in the thread "Baccarat Partner Betting," however there is generally no advantage in a progression system if the game itself is unfavorable. There are a number of posts in that forum expressing opinions that your progression system does not defeat the house edge, so you have part of your answer right there.

If you have brought nothing to the game other than a progressive betting system, in my opinion you merely have been lucky. By all means posts information about your winnings, but don't expect many people to emulate your system.

I don't understand gr8varmenti. He wants to prove that his "system" works, but he doesn't want to use math. That's like saying you want to pay for a Lamborghini, but you don't want to use money. *facepalm*


Sincerely,
gr8beethoven

Quote: puzzlenut

There are dozens of people on this forum who have the mathematical skills to verify the validity of your system. First they will want to know what game it is for. Then they will want to know the rules you follow, and once they know that they will be able to calculate your expected return from your strategy. If it is over 100%, then you really do have a winning system.

A number of players have found winning systems. One of the first was Joseph Jagger, who in 1873 found that some of the roulette wheels at the casino of Monte Carlo had sufficient bias in favor of certain numbers to enable him to win. In the 1950's Edward Thorp invented his card counting system in blackjack. Many people have used it since and made money. Most recently, the Wizard of this forum has found that there are some video poker machines that favor the player rather than the casino if played properly.

I have looked at your threads and have found some on the game of baccarat. I think you give a good description of a progression system in the thread "Baccarat Partner Betting," however there is generally no advantage in a progression system if the game itself is unfavorable. There are a number of posts in that forum expressing opinions that your progression system does not defeat the house edge, so you have part of your answer right there.

If you have brought nothing to the game other than a progressive betting system, in my opinion you merely have been lucky. By all means posts information about your winnings, but don't expect many people to emulate your system.

im not sure the wizzard was the one who originally found out or proved video poker to had an edge.

Quote: puzzlenut

There are dozens of people on this forum who have the mathematical skills to verify the validity of your system. First they will want to know what game it is for. Then they will want to know the rules you follow, and once they know that they will be able to calculate your expected return from your strategy. If it is over 100%, then you really do have a winning system.

A number of players have found winning systems. One of the first was Joseph Jagger, who in 1873 found that some of the roulette wheels at the casino of Monte Carlo had sufficient bias in favor of certain numbers to enable him to win. In the 1950's Edward Thorp invented his card counting system in blackjack. Many people have used it since and made money. Most recently, the Wizard of this forum has found that there are some video poker machines that favor the player rather than the casino if played properly.

I have looked at your threads and have found some on the game of baccarat. I think you give a good description of a progression system in the thread "Baccarat Partner Betting," however there is generally no advantage in a progression system if the game itself is unfavorable. There are a number of posts in that forum expressing opinions that your progression system does not defeat the house edge, so you have part of your answer right there.

If you have brought nothing to the game other than a progressive betting system, in my opinion you merely have been lucky. By all means posts information about your winnings, but don't expect many people to emulate your system.

im not sure the wizzard was the one who originally found out or proved video poker to had an edge.

Quote: puzzlenut

There are dozens of people on this forum who have the mathematical skills to verify the validity of your system. First they will want to know what game it is for. Then they will want to know the rules you follow, and once they know that they will be able to calculate your expected return from your strategy. If it is over 100%, then you really do have a winning system.

A number of players have found winning systems. One of the first was Joseph Jagger, who in 1873 found that some of the roulette wheels at the casino of Monte Carlo had sufficient bias in favor of certain numbers to enable him to win. In the 1950's Edward Thorp invented his card counting system in blackjack. Many people have used it since and made money. Most recently, the Wizard of this forum has found that there are some video poker machines that favor the player rather than the casino if played properly.

I have looked at your threads and have found some on the game of baccarat. I think you give a good description of a progression system in the thread "Baccarat Partner Betting," however there is generally no advantage in a progression system if the game itself is unfavorable. There are a number of posts in that forum expressing opinions that your progression system does not defeat the house edge, so you have part of your answer right there.

If you have brought nothing to the game other than a progressive betting system, in my opinion you merely have been lucky. By all means posts information about your winnings, but don't expect many people to emulate your system.

I'm not sure the wizzard was the one who originally found out or proved video poker had an edge.

Thorp was not the original in card counting he may have been the first to publish and confirm it via a computer.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He's in Canada. Gambling winnings are nontaxable.

Sorry for the late response, I'm just catching up.

Canadian gambling winnings are taxable for professionals, but as usual for tax regulations, the criteria are open to interpretation. It's a major issue of discussion over on 2+2:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/canadian-online-poker-tax-thread-7/

Here's a summary from that thread:

"Basically, if you're a for lack of a better term 'recreational player' then it's a fair assumption that you won't get taxed. However if you play very frequently and show a consistent profit for an extended amount of time, then you will fall into the dreaded category of 'reasonable expectation of profit' and be deemed a professional gambler."