What bet selection technique has give you worst strike rate?

Over the years I have found that some mechanical bet selections techniques will either have a very high or very low strike rate with not much in between.
What is the most hot/cold selection strategy you have used?

Hello, Walkinshaw30t. While, admittedly, I am certainly not a devotee of any "mechanical" bet selection, please pardon my indulgence as I offer you this:

The question, as it appears to me, is not nearly as much about the "which" as it is about the "when" if we were to discuss any "mechanical" bet selection processes and their inherent value to any serious Bac player.

Look, there is no denying it, whenever I find myself in the midst of a relatively "streaky" (or "dominant") shoe, or portion thereof, I am, in fact, playing for FTL (Follow The Last). And whenever I'm playing for a straight chop, certainly I could be categorized as playing for OLD (Opposite Last Decision).

But, my friend, I trust that you can realize that I utilize those selections "WHEN" I deem them advantageous to my play at that distinct time in the shoe. That is a rather far cry from following them "mechanically" at each and every wager I put up at the table, for that is something that I could never, ever do or propose to do.

Why?:

Variance.

Mechanical bet selections carry the same variance stats as the simple Banker/Player (opposing even chances) do....and they are relatively wide in nature. Much, much too wide, IMHO. They are rendered useless to a Bac player such as myself that relies heavily on the variance stats of his preferred bet selections.

But it bears repeating that all bet selections will have their "time and place" for use; obviously, those "best times and places" are left for the savvy Bac player to determine for themselves. And, even given that, that same savvy player has a confirmed/proven response to that determination and the subsequent bet, be it won or be it lost. Planned play as the shoe itself plays out.

It's not "rocket science", Walkinshaw30t......but, that said, it'll never be resolved with any "mechanical bet selection".

I wish you all the very best of it.

As further thought.....

One's variances is determinate in one's money-management plan. They must go hand-in-hand, IMHO. Can't have the best of one without having the best of the other. They, rather necessarily, complement each other.

You see, my friends, this is a money game. Dollars. They're all that count, in the end.

So we must have a planned play that "controls" our spending, if you will. So that we might be able to maximize on our returns when, in fact, those returns are coming our way.

Anything else....ANYTHING ELSE....is pure gambling and should looked at as such.

Period, end of story.

As further, further thought.....

Dollars wagered won - dollars wagered lost = winnings. (Assuming, of course, that it's a positive number at the end of that equation.)

Simple enough, right?

WRONG!

What's misssing?

The "churn". The dollars needed to be "put into play" in order to resolve the session. Or, in other words, your "risk of ruin".

Again, my friends, Baccarat is a money game. Dollars put into play, dollars won, dollars lost.....Dollars!

There's the best measuring stick of exactly where your true Bac game is at.....Dollars.....risked, won, lost.....Dollars.

Look:

You've got a method of play where you're winning a couple hundred of those dollars on a rather consistent basis.
BUUUUTTTT, you're putting thousands of dollars into play....sometimes, but even sometimes could be all too often....in order to clear that couple hundred.

That math, my friends, will, in the long run, not add up very well for you. Your short wins will be overtaken and surpassed by your long losses eventually.

And, my friends, you should know that it's all rather avoidable.

By recording your bets and your bet selections, and keeping track of certain statistics, that entire mess is avoidable. Yes, you can minimize your ROR (read: risk of ruin) with some relatively simple calculations on your part, both MM- and bet selection-wise.

And minimizing your ROR is of paramount importance.

Why?

Because, let's face it, "ruination" is the ultimate stop loss, is it not?

So we need to find a "way to live" at this game, don't we? A sensible approach that carries with it a realistic chance at long term success.

An approach that maximizes the profit potential return for each dollar spent (read: wagered).

There exists, as I see it, no alternative approach to this game that could ever prove profitable over the long term.

So it seems that the question must be asked of each of us as Baccarat players:

Is your Bac game built for success? Or, for failure?

It's not as if we aren't aware of the difference. We, as experienced Bac players, know darned well the difference when we see it. We know what we have. Or, what we haven't. It's all there in our records and in our calculations. Right in front of us.

Some players prefer to play this game with "blinders" on. Alternatively, some prefer to "see the light".

What can be said of you?

gr8player, you appear to be a proponent of the "Law of Series"

Hello, treetopbuddy. I trust all is well with you.

I happen to believe that any serious EC player should be very familiar with the Laws of Series. I further believe that that knowledge is even more important as it relates to my game of choice, Baccarat.

Baccarat is a closed-end shoe game.

Each shoe carries the following expectations:

Approx 18 - 20 singles (ones)
Approx 8 - 10 doubles (twos)
Approx 4 - 5 triples (threes)

Now, I happen to concentrate my play on those three "holes" on my horizontal scorecard, and, TTB, you should know that they'll comprise roughly 75 - 80% of the shoe's decisions. So you'd best be familiar with those statistics and the Laws of Series.

Quote: gr8player

So you'd best be familiar with those statistics and the Laws of Series.

I'll bite. Why is is best we be familiar with these properties?

Quote: gr8player

Each shoe carries the following expectations:

Approx 18 - 20 singles (ones)
Approx 8 - 10 doubles (twos)
Approx 4 - 5 triples (threes)

.

But thats only half the shoe. The other half is 4's
5's and 6's etc. You don't know when they'll happen
so you're knowledge is useless. And every show doesn't
break down like that. You see shoes that have hardly
any 1's or 2's, its all 3's and larger. What do you do then,
go home?

Quote: EvenBob

But thats only half the shoe. The other half is 4's
5's and 6's etc. You don't know when they'll happen
so you're knowledge is useless. And every show doesn't
break down like that. You see shoes that have hardly
any 1's or 2's, its all 3's and larger. What do you do then,
go home?

EvenBob, have you ever noticed that I post strictly in Baccarat-related threads? There's a reason for that, my friend. I choose not to espouse on about things for which I may or may not be qualified, and I'm a huge believer in quality over quantity. You, apparently, as the title holder in this forum for quantity of posts, think otherwise. You'll put your two cents in even if it's not really worth half that. Your quote above is just such an instance:

>....that's only half the shoe.<

Nope. Did you even read my post? The singles, doubles, and triples comprise closer to 80% of the shoe's results and nowhere near your stated "half the shoe".

>And every shoe doesn't break down like that.<

Correct. It's just a guideline, a useful measurement tool so that you're that much more familiar with the common propensities of most shoes.

>You see shoes that have hardly any 1's or 2's, it's all 3's and larger. What do you do then, go home?<

Yes, EvenBob. In a shoe such as that, rare as it is, I'd be "going home" all right......with my pockets stuffed with the casino's cash! It's a rare sight indeed to witness a shoe with more 3's (and more's) that there are 1's and 2's. Yet again, EvenBob, you're showing a total lack of any real Baccarat experience with comments such as those.

Sometimes it's best to know one's limitations. Both at the tables and in public forum posting.

That said, you did manage to get yet one more up on that ever-growing toteboard.....congratulations, my friend.

Quote: gr8player

Yes, EvenBob. In a shoe such as that, rare as it is, I'd be "going home" all right......with my pockets stuffed with the casino's cash! .

So you have a crystal ball, then. You know whats
coming. The casino must fear you indeed. Have
you quit your day job yet?

The fact is, if it was as easy as you claim the game
would have shut down long ago and it hasn't. Knowing
the law of series is where you start out, not where
you end up. Its what a rookie finds out before he ever
plays the game. Its meaningless when it comes to actual
playing, but it makes you feel good.

Quote: dwheatley

I'll bite. Why is is best we be familiar with these properties?

Hello, dwheatley, and thank you for your interest.

Averages.

We all need to begin our quests somewhere, and, IMHO, familiarity with the statistical averages for the singles, doubles, and triples is a meaningful place to start.

It bears repeating that those singles, doubles, and triples comprise the bulk of the shoe's decisions. One simply can't afford to get that "deer in the headlights" look about them if they happened to be witnessing a shoe unfolding with a lack of any real runs; anyone armed with those statistical averages would know that there is supposed to be more 1's than 2's and more 2's than 3's.

It is, in fact, the ANOMALY shoe that has alot of runs in it. One should know that. Why? Because maybe, just maybe, they won't design their preferred plays around catching runs of 5 or 6 or more. That would be fruitless.

I'd rather design my play to catch the singles or the doubles or the triples. It's not difficult....just follow the propensity of this particular shoe.

Banker is stopping at 2 (BB)? Bet P after a double B.
Player is hitting the "3-hole" (tripling)? Bet P after a double P.

Does that work? Yes. And no.

Which means...sometimes it will and sometimes it won't.

But I won't be caught by surprise in the numbers. I know the avg stats and I know what to look for when playing for them.

Is it an exact science? Nope. But, know this: What might've "bit" me in the last shoe will, more than likely, "pay me off" in the next.

I use those stats to assist me in my bet selections.

I wish it for all of you.

Quote: gr8player

anyone armed with those statistical averages would know that there is supposed to be more 1's than 2's and more 2's than 3's.
.

Every single bac player knows this, I guarantee
it. He may not know its called law of series (its
not a law) but he knows there are more 1's than
2's and 2's than 3's etc. Why do you think this is
a revelation.

Quote: EvenBob

So you have a crystal ball, then. You know whats
coming. The casino must fear you indeed. Have
you quit your day job yet?

I wish.

No, I'm still working hard at my full-time job. I have a daughter that'll probably be getting engaged soon, so here comes a wedding to pay for, and I've a son that begins the last semester to his Masters degree in the Fall. My responsibilities at this time prevent me from leaving my job.

Besides, I make more money at my job than I ever could at Baccarat.

But, that all said, I can tell you this unequivocally:

If I had "daily, easy access" to the casinos and I were retired, I'd be able to derive a rather keen weekly stipend from this game. I've no doubt of it. As it is now, I get only a Thursday night and a Friday afternoon each week and I'm still doing decently.

Ah well, retirement's maybe a year or two away.......

Several Fridays and Saturdays of losing money at Bac,BJ,3CP,MS Stud,Texas Hold'em Poker,Craps,Crapless,and all the other fun games we love to play.
This all happens at only 1 particular casino.
I'm down about 3k at this point.(On all these trips individually)
Restless in my room I wake up at 2am knowing full well checkout is at 11am and I have to drive home.
Hit the atm for 500 bucks.
Start playing the don't.(I hate doing this cause it is no fun,but I know it is always a cold table and I wouldn't mind winning my money back.)
5 or 10 dollar flat bet lay up to 20x odds. Slowly increase bets as my Roll grows.
PSO,PSO,PSO......Slowly but surely coming back.

Sometimes, it is better to be lucky than be good.
What a Rush.I can recall how I felt and remember the experiences as I type now.

KB1