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siklein
siklein
Joined: Jun 12, 2013
  • Threads: 2
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June 12th, 2013 at 10:58:17 AM permalink
I use a rather simple strategy for playing online craps, and here it is-
I have $120 bankroll and I place the 6 and 8 for $6 each only after point is established. First two hits on either 6 or 8 is same bet. So at this point the worse I can do is be up $2. After the second hit (on either the 6 or 8) I press the number that just hit up to $12, and take down the $6 on the number that did NOT hit (so now worse case scenerio is up $8 for the shooter). I now stay on that lone number for $12 place wager until shooter 7's out.

I do this with a loss limit of 50% ($60) and a win limit of only $25.

I have been playing this simple system online for 9 sessions at 1 per day, and have lost $60 once, but have won $25 eight times, so total profit is $140.

I realize a few rolls with 7 out and no 6 and 8 is possible, but by my rather short sampling, and strict win/loss limits, has only happened once.

Question- should I expect similar results in land casino?
Please explain to me what may be wrong with this system?
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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June 12th, 2013 at 11:15:43 AM permalink
As you've suspected, the downside is the 7 out with no 6 or 8 - this will happen three times out of eight. You've been lucky, that's all. Plus, if there's only one hit, you still lose, don't you? $12 goes south, compared to the $7 you've won.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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  • Posts: 2463
June 17th, 2015 at 11:18:48 AM permalink
Quote: siklein

I use a rather simple strategy for playing online craps, and here it is-<snip>

this is very simple for many to simulate
i gets the chance to win at least $25 to be 62%
the average win when you win should be abouts $30
the median and mode = $28 as expected


Quote: siklein

I have been playing this simple system online for 9 sessions at 1 per day, and have lost $60 once, but have won $25 eight times, so total profit is $140.

almost impossible to win exactly $25 every session played
you win different amounts between $25 and $38
$28 being the most common win

Quote: siklein

I realize a few rolls with 7 out and no 6 and 8 is possible, but by my rather short sampling, and strict win/loss limits, has only happened once.

9 sessions and you lost 1 time
the probability of that = abouts 1 in 13
the chace to win 8 or 9 out of 9 = abouts 1 in 11
so nothing at all special
except you B lucky (if you believe in luck)

Quote: siklein

Question- should I expect similar results in land casino?

sure and why not?
but not at that win ratio (8 out of 9)
Quote: siklein

Please explain to me what may be wrong with this system?

i had 100,000 of my friends play this exact system just now and some won and some lost
but the total win/lose from all was a NET LOSS of exactly $219,103
C


============================
a 62% win rate just does not cut it, i say
============================

why you choose $25 as a win goal and not $20 or another value?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<
you are still being short paid on a win by your place bets, that is what kills you (this system) in the end

if (IF) you played a fair game where the casino always offered 0% HE games
you would still only have a winning probability (of one session) to be 60/85 or abouts 70.6%

YUCK!!!

you still B gambling

so have fun with it, i says,
and expect to be a lifetime loser with this craps system (playing 4 hours a day for 60 years that is)

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart

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