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7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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August 27th, 2012 at 10:56:45 PM permalink
Quote: RonC

Assuming your numbers are correct, let's take $2,000 to the casino and bet it $20 ($10 on two groups of 12) at a time for 100 bets...

We'll do them right in a row...63 wins followed by 37 losses...

Win 1 unit 63 of the time @ $20 a bet =Bet $1260 and return of $1890 with $740 remaining to bet from the original amount...now you have $2630

Lose 2 units 37 of the time @ $20 a bet = Lose $740...now you have $1890.

Even simplified like this, the house advantage is almost correct (within $5, based on the rounding)

This is a loser...can it win sometimes? Sure. It is still a loser...

It can win sometimes in 100 spins.
Simple math shows this.
66 win and 34 lose = -2 units. OK I see we are betting $10 each so we are down $20.(100 unit bankroll)
67 win and 33 lose = +1 unit or $10
To win at least $10, this is binomial probability of 24.57991% or about 1 in 4 are winners
Not that horrible.

How about 500 spins
334 win and 166 lose = +2 unit or $20
To win at least $20, this is binomial probability of 4.95233% or about 1 in 20 are winners
Not looking too good
(RoR of busting before the 500 spins with the 100 unit bankroll is about 1 in 237,754.31)

How about 1,000 spins
667 win and 333 lose = +1 unit or $10
To win at least $10, this is binomial probability of 1.06516% or about 1 in 94 are winners
Getting worse but not impossible.
(RoR of busting before the 1,000 spins with the 100 unit bankroll is about 1 in 38)

We seem to have a trend developing here.
The more bets one makes, the less chance one has to show a profit.

You better be able to pick winning bets better than average if you want to play more than 1000 bets.

How about 10,000 spins
6667 win and 3333 lose = +1 unit or $10
To win at least $10, about 1 in 8,457,464,088,958.680 are winners
(Probability of NOT busting before the 10,000 spins with the 100 unit bankroll is about 1 in 1,691,358,778)


Yep, it got worse
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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August 27th, 2012 at 11:36:40 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

My wife (Who hates gambling) has played Roulette 7 total times and won 5 times with the same number in 3 different countries: The #17

What are the odds of that???

Last victory was last Saturday. Next time, I'm in a Casino with her; I'm putting $100 straight-up on the #17.

As good a system as any other one. Go for it. Though Seventeen is in the middle of the layout, its not the middle of the wheel.
heather
heather
Joined: Jun 12, 2011
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  • Posts: 437
August 28th, 2012 at 3:58:14 AM permalink
Quote: guido111

The OPs betting idea is a bit hard to follow.
He calls a street bet that pays 2 to 1?



I believe that the OP's system works like this: Bet the same amount on two of the three columns simultaneously, Martingale until you win, repeat. With the columns paying out 2:1, the OP expects to win one betting unit while having better odds than on the even money bets, because one is betting just under two thirds of the wheel rather than just under half of the wheel (what the even money bets offer). Like I said, that's how James Bond played Roulette in one of the books, and I've tried it before and thought that it was boring and don't remember it being tremendously profitable. But I think that many people here probably realize that I prefer the call bets anyhow.

If I want a better than 50% chance of winning, I'll just stick with the Banker in Baccarat. If I'm playing Roulette, I want the excitement of maybe getting a really good payout. If I wanted to bet two thirds of the wheel, I'd probably do Voisins + Orphelins (can pay out as much as 36:1 if 26 hits), but that's just me. I like variance.
NickyDim
NickyDim
Joined: Aug 17, 2012
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August 28th, 2012 at 5:56:39 AM permalink
Every bet but one has the exact same house advantage. Roulette is fun to play as entertainment, doesn't need for you to be sharp so it's a good game to be with friends, drinking, having a good time. The only thing you can do is know when to leave a table. You limit your winning sessions to amounts 6% higher than your losing sessions amounts and you can enjoy the game day in and day out without getting killed. But a system? No, never seen one even come close because it's mathematically impossible, and knowing that before you sit down makes it easy to walk when you have to. And for the poster who said it's more for the less mathematically inclined? Probably true, but I love the game and I love math, love the odds, love running the payout totals in my head after each result. Doing the math on the fly for stacks of chips on and around a number is like crack for me.
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."-Ben Franklin
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
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August 28th, 2012 at 7:18:08 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

As good a system as any other one. Go for it. Though Seventeen is in the middle of the layout, its not the middle of the wheel.



The #17 is both our lucky # and has been EXTREMELY lucky for my wife when playing Roulette. The most we have ever put straight up on the #17 is 5 for 175 profit on our honeymoon in Casino de Venezia in Venice, Italy last Spring.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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  • Posts: 14374
August 28th, 2012 at 9:07:55 AM permalink
Quote: NickyDim

, love running the payout totals in my head after each result. Doing the math on the fly for stacks of chips on and around a number is like crack for me.

You've no idea how lucky you are. I couldn't do the math without taking my shoes off.
NickyDim
NickyDim
Joined: Aug 17, 2012
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 128
August 29th, 2012 at 5:07:24 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

You've no idea how lucky you are. I couldn't do the math without taking my shoes off.


Hope you never have to count to 21 in public.
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."-Ben Franklin
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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August 30th, 2012 at 4:03:50 PM permalink
One good thing about roulette is that even American roulette offers the best odds I know of for a straight longshot on the order of 35:1.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
estebanrey
estebanrey
Joined: Oct 4, 2012
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October 5th, 2012 at 6:22:32 AM permalink
nvmind

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