Senate Races 2014
Quote: beachbumbabsIt's not remotely the same. However, in the eyes of the Middle East, there is a parallel. He disarms that counter-argument by acknowledging it happened. It has everything to do with who he is speaking to and why. I'm not sure why that's hard to understand for you, MrW, RonC, or chickenman.
I do not understand because:
1. No counter-argument was brought up and
2. What does a cop shooting a suspect that attacked him on earth have to do with terrorists trying to overthrow two governments?
Why on earth bring it up?
Or is the parallel in the black groups that were rioting and looting? I mean, that seems to be a closer parallel, a group that feels it is oppressed acting out with violence.
Do I understand it wrong?
How about it?
How about giving me odds since you are convinced Hillary will lose if she gets the nomination. "
If you wanted to be spotted, you should have been born a leopard.
In language even a Balimoron like me can say, and SOOPPO is to much of a gentleman to do so, instead of asking for odds, it's time to PUT UP OR SHUT UP !
Quote: AZDuffman
2. What does a cop shooting a suspect that attacked him on earth have to do with terrorists trying to overthrow two governments?
Exactly. If you don't mean to compare them,
why put them in the same sentence or thought.
Of course he's saying one is as bad as the
other, it's how he thinks.
I thought you guys were talking about something as worthless as who gets elected in USA .gov, so I hadn't visited.
Quote: Buzzard" I am generally a low roller but for a bet like this, I'm willing to go up alot, a whole lot.
How about it?
How about giving me odds since you are convinced Hillary will lose if she gets the nomination. "
If you wanted to be spotted, you should have been born a leopard.
In language even a Balimoron like me can say, and SOOPPO is to much of a gentleman to do so, instead of asking for odds, it's time to PUT UP OR SHUT UP !
As a fellow WOV member that grew up in Baltimore, you are right.
Went to Leith Walk elementary school as a kid.
Hung out at Chinquapin park as a kid
Ok Evenbob, how bout even odds.
If Clinton wins the nomination then loses the election, you win
If Clinton wins the nomination and wins the election, I win.
Even odds for evenBob.
Name an amount and I will probabbly accept.
Money talks, BS well, you know :-)
Quote: AZDuffmanI'm sorry, explain again how a suspect being shot by a cop after said suspect attacked the cop is the same as ISIS exactly how again?
But lets look at history here. Did FDR mention anti-Semitism in the USA when he was building the case for war with Germany?
In any case, why is Obama even worried about ISIS? ISIS didn't attack us on 9/11. They pose no threat to us. But let the Nobel Peace Prize winner bomb yet more countries.
Sarcasm aside, I am against doing anything because I do not want to spill blood to pay for the same real estate again. Unless USA citizens accept that we need to have a hard not benevolent occupation for a decade or more and then have several bases in Irag for 100 years or more after then we are kidding ourselves about "doing something."
ISIS is this; http://newamerica-now.blogspot.com/2014/06/iraq-real-story-about-too-extreme-for.html Bush/Cheney gave new life to Al Zarqawi/ISIS "it is amazing how well combat selects for talent" this is just the Levant reverting to the mean since the Sykes/Picot drawing up British boundaries in MENA. Excellent article, with clickable links that go back to PLO and the six day war.
The Saudi's driving the price of crude below 81 is like killing a village to save it. We just drove Russia's crude to China at firesale prices, and the Chinese are buying it with US dollars. The tarsands sill shut down at 80, as will shale.
Do you remember a few month back when Bandar and Putin were arguing about whether or not the US should invade Syria? Bandar threatened Putin if he interfered with the overthrow of Assad also, that he controlled the Chechen's? Trouble has flowed every since the olympics. The Ukraine and Syria are connected, "it is all about the pipe". The same group always prospers. This is great for the mic and retiring generals. Obama is more of a CIA guy.
Ferguson would never have made national news had it not been for the msm, but it sure keeps the masses looking the other way.
Quote: terapinedQuote:Its a UN speech. BORING.
I thought this one was great!
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/transcript-of-hugo-chavezs-devil-speech-at-the-un#.VEm64vnF9tw Some of the UN speeches are a lot more lively than when the politicos are back home stumping votes.
at 66%. Just as I predicted, as the election
draws closer, it's now at 60%. What's changed?
Nothing. People who do this for a living for
the last 40 years all say 10 days out 95% of voters
know who they support. You watch the lib
pollsters, it will be close to 50/50 the day
before the election.
All polls suck..
Quote: EvenBobThree days ago, Silver had the Right winning
at 66%. Just as I predicted, as the election
draws closer, it's now at 60%. What's changed?
Nothing. ..
What do you mean, what's changed? This is when all the campaigns are ramping up calls, ads, and spending their last dollars.
Quote: EvenBobThree days ago, Silver had the Right winning
at 66%. Just as I predicted, as the election
draws closer, it's now at 60%. What's changed?
Nothing. People who do this for a living for
the last 40 years all say 10 days out 95% of voters
know who they support. You watch the lib
pollsters, it will be close to 50/50 the day
before the election.
All polls suck..
You can believe Nate Silver that has been pretty much on the money last few elections. If Nate says its getting close, its getting close.
Or you can listen to Karl "Is this just math that you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better or is this real?" Rove.
Thanks Megyn Kelly
What's changing is independents are making up their minds.
Quote: EvenBobThree days ago, Silver had the Right winning
at 66%. Just as I predicted, as the election
draws closer, it's now at 60%. What's changed?
Nothing. People who do this for a living for
the last 40 years all say 10 days out 95% of voters
know who they support. You watch the lib
pollsters, it will be close to 50/50 the day
before the election.
All polls suck..
Yep, 95% of voters know who they support. and that 5% is HUGE when there are 10 races separated by less than 5%. As for what's changed...new polls in AK and GA show undecideds decreasing and support for Begich and Nunn increasing. That makes it more likely that the Ds will win in those states, and D wins in those states make it harder for the Rs to win the senate. So, exactly what you're bitching about is happening - people are making up their minds - but you don't seem to understand what it means. Also, you still don't seem to actually know what a poll is...your complaint is about models that use polls as an input.
it. They give people jobs and something
for the media to talk about. The Wash
Post has the Repubs with an 87% chance
of taking the senate. It's a joke. Silver
is back up to 63%. Tomorrow he'll be
at 57%.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dre/politics/election-lab-2014
Quote: EvenBobPolls are meaningless, I'm convinced of
it. They give people jobs and something
for the media to talk about. The Wash
Post has the Repubs with an 87% chance
of taking the senate. It's a joke. Silver
is back up to 63%. Tomorrow he'll be
at 57%.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dre/politics/election-lab-2014
Why do you keep saying polls and then talking about models. The two are separate things. Also Silver is hardly a partisan hack he did predict the Republican wave in 2010 and didn't retract that at all. As more information comes in the numbers change. Polls obviously are not unchanging since if peoples minds were immediately made up then there would be no need for ads or debates or anything of the sort. Also when polls change the models based on those polls consequently change.
ones the day before the election are the
only ones that count. Right now you can
find 50%, 63%, and 87%, all about the
same races. With that much spread, you
know it's all crap. They just adjust it to the
way they want it to look.
Quote: EvenBobPolls, models, it's all the same result. The
ones the day before the election are the
only ones that count. Right now you can
find 50%, 63%, and 87%, all about the
same races. With that much spread, you
know it's all crap. They just adjust it to the
way they want it to look.
Polls and models are not even remotely the same thing. A model takes in data and makes a prediction based on that data. Polls are raw data which a model may use to arrive at its conclusion, not all election models use polling data. Saying they are the same shows an ignorance about how these things work.
I think he's talking about "Poles" and Ukrainian models?Quote: TwirdmanQuote:Why do you keep saying polls and then talking about models.
Quote: petroglyphI think he's talking about "Poles" and Ukrainian models?
That actually would make more sense than the point he's trying to make.
Quote: TwirdmanPolls and models are not even remotely the same thing. .
They have you sucked into thinking they
are oh so different, obviously. Polls, models,
potato, potatoe, the end result is who's
going to win the senate. The darling predictor
of a previous election might be the goat this
time. It's all pissing in the wind.
Quote: EvenBobThey have you sucked into thinking they
are oh so different, obviously. Polls, models,
potato, potatoe, the end result is who's
going to win the senate. The darling predictor
of a previous election might be the goat this
time. It's all pissing in the wind.
Flour is different than bread. Really, it is.
Now we are getting closer to the same page. The election is "crap". The pollsters too. What does that say about the people that watch and follow this crap? Being able to even hold the thought in your head that there is a difference between red/blue at the same time, is the very definition of "cognitive dissonance", [to use a "catch" phrase]Quote: EvenBobQuote:you
know it's all crap.
Quote: EvenBobIt's all pissing in the wind.
Turn your fan off then.
Quote: kenarmanI think what EB is trying to say is "Garbage In, Garbage Out". Same as it has always been.
Maybe. But just because it's his opinion that we're seeing "garbage out" doesn't mean it's a fact that there's garbage going in.
Quote: rdw4potusMaybe. But just because it's his opinion that we're seeing "garbage out" doesn't mean it's a fact that there's garbage going in.
2010 saw 40,627 NEW laws enacted. I realize correlation is not causation but come on. That is one years worth and maybe way off. Garbage in? How many times have they re-phrased the same tired ideology that has gotten us where we are and them where they are?
Its just the same issues re- worded, if you watch any of them also consider they have all taken hand classes about how to sway your opinions by their hand movements. Watch, many of them use the same moves, the same head language, seconds of pause for effect. They are all acting. Or for that matter, we all are.
http://www.searchamelia.com/land-of-40627-laws-and-regulations-more
Quote: petroglyph2010 saw 40,627 NEW laws enacted. I realize correlation is not causation but come on. That is one years worth and maybe way off. Garbage in? How many times have they re-phrased the same tired ideology that has gotten us where we are and them where they are?
Its just the same issues re- worded, if you watch any of them also consider they have all taken hand classes about how to sway your opinions by their hand movements. Watch, many of them use the same moves, the same head language, seconds of pause for effect. They are all acting. Or for that matter, we all are.
http://www.searchamelia.com/land-of-40627-laws-and-regulations-more
I don't think we're talking about the same thing. You're talking about laws, I'm talking about polls and models. Bob doesn't like the wide range of output from the models, and has determined that this means that all polls are garbage.
Quote: rdw4potusI don't think we're talking about the same thing. You're talking about laws, I'm talking about polls and models. Bob doesn't like the wide range of output from the models, and has determined that this means that all polls are garbage.
I believe that many may start their political careers with more integrity then they leave with. Maybe I'm a little sideways but those laws passed and that was just 2010 is what politicos do. Those laws, every one of them at the federal level is influenced largely by lobbyists, indeed written by them. The trade laws which have totally surrendered our sovereignty to corporations, is the garbage in, around and out that I refer too.
This president has openly declared that he has the right to kill anyone in the world at his discretion. And this guy ran on a platform of no torture. How do you think our guys will fare now on the field of battle when captured? That is the government that owns us, right there. They can take your property, or your life,,, what else matters?
You know? When Clinton went to Europe to give a Veterans Day speech, [which he isn't one of] Hell Hillary dodged more bullets than Bill, we flew 900 clappers over that moved about the audience of vets and would clap and cheer at choice times. It made it appear to the world that his speech was more appreciated.
I know what polls are, as well as models and good comedy when I see it.
Quote: rdw4potusdoesn't mean it's a fact that there's garbage going in.
They put in what they want, that's why we
get a 50% and an 87%. It's bunk, it's a
trick, it's flim flam. If I had to guess, I'd
say it's around 60%, and will go down to
55% Nov 3rd.
Quote: EvenBobThey put in what they want, that's why we
get a 50% and an 87%. It's bunk, it's a
trick, it's flim flam. If I had to guess, I'd
say it's around 60%, and will go down to
55% Nov 3rd.
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2014/10/23/the-dissident-dad-the-challenges-of-defending-your-childs-mind/ "I truly believe that most Americans suffer from Stockholm Syndrome, a psychological phenomenon where the victim identifies with the attacker to the point they will even defend their captor and even treat certain forms of abuse as a form of compassion."
"We see this everywhere; especially around election time, where the voters defend all kinds of atrocities and criminal actions by our elected officials."
Quote: EvenBobThey put in what they want, that's why we
get a 50% and an 87%. It's bunk, it's a
trick, it's flim flam. If I had to guess, I'd
say it's around 60%, and will go down to
55% Nov 3rd.
Really? If I had to guess I'd say it's about 60% and will go up to about 100% on November 3rd. The only thing weighting it down now is the chance of some big nationwide earth-shattering news in the next 9 days.
Quote: rdw4potusThe only thing weighting it down now is the chance of some big nationwide earth-shattering news in the next 9 days.
And that is less of a factor these days due people have already voted by mail and early voting. Here in Florida, we have already been voting for 3 days.
Quote: terapinedAnd that is less of a factor these days due people have already voted by mail and early voting. Here in Florida, we have already been voting for 3 days.
Yeah, polling during the early voting period is tricky. it's not allowed in most places to disclose the results of cast votes before the polls close on election day. So they add a question to the screening info at the start of calls. The call is terminated (in most jurisdictions) if the respondent answers "yes" to "have you already voted?" Then, if that answer is "No" instead, the call continues with the usual "do you plan on voting...?" question to establish likely voter status. Some pollsters attempt to look at early voting ballot requests to determine if any additional weighting is needed in their analysis, but most just score their results as though votes hadn't already been cast.
Quote: petroglyphI thought this one was great!
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/transcript-of-hugo-chavezs-devil-speech-at-the-un#.VEm64vnF9tw Some of the UN speeches are a lot more lively than when the politicos are back home stumping votes.
edit: Another excellant interesting speech, by Vlad Putin at Valdi International discussion club, article by Paul Craig Roberts [assistant secretary of the treasury under Reagan] http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/10/25/vladimir-putin-leader-moral-world-paul-craig-roberts/
As stated by Roberts " Putin is the leader of the Moral world"
HuffPo 65%
NYT 68%
Silver 64%
5 days of forecasting left before next
Tue, lets watch as all these leftist numbers
come down down down. HuffPo is
already warning that the numbers could
be all wrong and the Dems have a good
chance of keeping the majority. They
called their own 65% a 'moderate lead'.
Quote: EvenBobWash Post 93%
HuffPo 65%
NYT 68%
Silver 64%
5 days of forecasting left before next
Tue, lets watch as all these leftist numbers
come down down down. HuffPo is
already warning that the numbers could
be all wrong and the Dems have a good
chance of keeping the majority. They
called their own 65% a 'moderate lead'.
For someone like you constantly dissing all the polls, why not ignore.
It actually seems the opposite, you check these number every day.
Wow , evenbob checking out huffpost, wash post, nyt every single day.
Thanks Bob, keep it up, looking forward to your next post regarding the latest numbers from the left.
Dont even have to check myself, just come here for latest numbers from the left via evenbob
Good work, keep it up.
the first time since the weekend. I won't
check again till next weekend.
Quote: EvenBobWash Post 93%
HuffPo 65%
NYT 68%
Silver 64%
Today it's:
Wash Post 95%
HuffPo 69%
NYT 69%
Silver 68%
I predicted they would all go down
and they all went up. My model is
not working properly. And the Dems
are playing the race card and the
women card and the whining card
and nothing is working. They're not
only not mentioning Obama, the
Immaculated One, they are openly
spitting on him when possible.
3 days left, it's too close to call. That's
what my model says. This is my model:
Quote: BuzzardWhat a better world this would be if the other 16,084 posts had suffered the same fate.
If it happened, we could get FrGamble to declare it a miracle.
Quote: EvenBobToday it's:
Wash Post 95%
HuffPo 69%
NYT 69%
Silver 68%
48 hours before polls start to close:
Wash Post 94%
HuffPo 75%
NYT 68%
Silver 73%
Silver and Huffpo have gone up, the other two went
down. so I was half right. I switched models again:
Quote: EvenBob48 hours before polls start to close:
Wash Post 94%
HuffPo 75%
NYT 68%
Silver 73%
Silver and Huffpo have gone up, the other two went
down. so I was half right. I switched models again:
They are all honest and want to get it right.
Nobody wants to look like Karl Rove.
Nice models :-)
Quote: terapinedThey are all honest and want to get it right.
They want to get it right, but saying they're
honest is a joke. Being honest doesn't get
you squat, but being right does.
Quote: EvenBobToday it's:
Wash Post 95%
HuffPo 69%
NYT 69%
Silver 68%
I predicted they would all go down
and they all went up. My model is
not working properly. And the Dems
are playing the race card and the
women card and the whining card
and nothing is working. They're not
only not mentioning Obama, the
Immaculated One, they are openly
spitting on him when possible.
3 days left, it's too close to call. That's
what my model says. This is my model:
That's a black woman. Are you sure ur Republican?
Quote: SonuvabishThat's a black woman. Are you sure ur Republican?
A typical racist statement from the party of inclusion...oh...you were joking, right?
You select which Ron.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/160373/democrats-racially-diverse-republicans-mostly-white.aspx
Quote: Sonuvabish
That's a black woman. Are you sure ur Republican?
Rush Limbaugh's call screener for the 25 years
he's been on national radio has been James
Golden, a black guy. On any call-in radio show,
the screener sets the agenda by what calls he
lets get thru. I wonder if Rush knows he's supposed
to be a racist because he's on the Right.
Quote: EvenBobRush Limbaugh's call screener for the 25 years
he's been on national radio has been James
Golden, a black guy. On any call-in radio show,
the screener sets the agenda by what calls he
lets get thru. I wonder if Rush knows he's supposed
to be a racist because he's on the Right.
Don Sterling had lots of blacks working for him. So, I suppose, that makes him not a racist.
