2016 Election

Quote: rxwine

It's not so much the technical aspect -- as when it gets to that point you've got a real potential total breakdown if the military becomes at odds with the Commander and Chief.

I just find it strange that he thinks that he can readily give orders that are illegal and that they will be obeyed. The attitude shows how little he really knows. It shows little respect for the military or the law.

Quote: ams288

You must have missed the part where Donald implied he has a large penis.

Odds are the current guy in the White House is larger.

This is how I saw the debate:

Overall Winner--Hillary Clinton

Debate Winner--Kasich
2d--Cruz
3d--Rubio
4th--Trump

I know the quick polls will show Trump winning; that is going to happen when someone has a group of strong supporters. Not sure how things turn out in the polls; I have not predicted a trend correctly yet and I have stopped trying because just when I think Trump looks like the least Presidential, he does even better.

His antics last night were funny until one remembers this is a debate for the nomination of a party to run for President. He constantly interrupted, was evasive in answering questions, had no real policy to speak of, made silly faces like a grade school kid, looked very worn out (but did not act that way--he just looked bad--is it bad makeup, lighting, or the stress of being a candidate?), and was no match intellectually for any of the contenders. He does play the role of outsider, even though he has used politicians of personal gain for years--Hillary had to attend his wedding because he bought her, remember?

Rubio looked better without the attacks of last time--he is not as good as Trump at attacking and insulting. He wasn't great, but he improved.

Cruz argues his case well. He is obviously a better debater than the others, but that doesn't mean as much as it would in a "real" debate, because these things are far from that. He did well, but he isn't going to overtake Trump just by doing well in the debate.

Kasich was the grown-up on the stage. No one challenges his presentation of what he as done in government. Perhaps that is because he is so far behind or maybe it is because his record is solid. He had to fight to get a word in but he is getting more time as the number of contenders drops. He did a good job of making sure he got some time and he presented himself well. He would likely make the best President of the four Republicans and two Democrats in the race now, but he is in last place among all of them. There is no interest in the best to really get things done; there is a lot of interest in the best at talking over people.

So...I will still vote for the Republican nominee over the Democrat. I will have a major issue if the party supports the "Anyone But Trump" movement in any official way. I have no real problem with anyone challenging Trump on the issues, but I don't think we should listen to someone who has already lost a winnable election as some kind of sage on how to win.

My teenage son voted for the first time this year. He watches the actions of, and talks to, classmates who support Trump. Even at the age of 18 he is befuddled at how a man can say so little, insult so many, and still be leading the race for the nomination. He watches these debates and sees no substance in Trump.

Trump is going to fix everything. Just like Obama did. I wonder if that lady got her house paid for like she thought on the night of Obama's election...

How long before making fun of this becomes part of Trump's stump speech?

Quote: rxwine

I didn't think the media could really make Donald Trump look more crass than he usually is at some point, but I have to admit CNN delivered with this opening:



They make it sound like it might have been in his opening statement, which for some reason, wouldn't surprise me if that had actually happened that way.

He did open with it, in the first 5 minutes; nobody was going there again about his hands, but Trump forced the issue over to that after Rubio was asked to verify his derogatory comments. And it wasn't brought back up by Rubio, but Trump in his rebuttal made it all about the hands. As Katty Kay said this morning, it was gross and disgusting that the debate got taken to that low level. I mean, really? It was the next thing to them both just whipping it out.

Quote: RonC

This is how I saw the debate:

Overall Winner--Hillary Clinton

Debate Winner--Kasich
2d--Cruz
3d--Rubio
4th--Trump

I know the quick polls will show Trump winning; that is going to happen when someone has a group of strong supporters. Not sure how things turn out in the polls; I have not predicted a trend correctly yet and I have stopped trying because just when I think Trump looks like the least Presidential, he does even better.

His antics last night were funny until one remembers this is a debate for the nomination of a party to run for President. He constantly interrupted, was evasive in answering questions, had no real policy to speak of, made silly faces like a grade school kid, looked very worn out (but did not act that way--he just looked bad--is it bad makeup, lighting, or the stress of being a candidate?), and was no match intellectually for any of the contenders. He does play the role of outsider, even though he has used politicians of personal gain for years--Hillary had to attend his wedding because he bought her, remember?

Rubio looked better without the attacks of last time--he is not as good as Trump at attacking and insulting. He wasn't great, but he improved.

Cruz argues his case well. He is obviously a better debater than the others, but that doesn't mean as much as it would in a "real" debate, because these things are far from that. He did well, but he isn't going to overtake Trump just by doing well in the debate.

Kasich was the grown-up on the stage. No one challenges his presentation of what he as done in government. Perhaps that is because he is so far behind or maybe it is because his record is solid. He had to fight to get a word in but he is getting more time as the number of contenders drops. He did a good job of making sure he got some time and he presented himself well. He would likely make the best President of the four Republicans and two Democrats in the race now, but he is in last place among all of them. There is no interest in the best to really get things done; there is a lot of interest in the best at talking over people.

So...I will still vote for the Republican nominee over the Democrat. I will have a major issue if the party supports the "Anyone But Trump" movement in any official way. I have no real problem with anyone challenging Trump on the issues, but I don't think we should listen to someone who has already lost a winnable election as some kind of sage on how to win.

My teenage son voted for the first time this year. He watches the actions of, and talks to, classmates who support Trump. Even at the age of 18 he is befuddled at how a man can say so little, insult so many, and still be leading the race for the nomination. He watches these debates and sees no substance in Trump.

Trump is going to fix everything. Just like Obama did. I wonder if that lady got her house paid for like she thought on the night of Obama's election...

This is pretty much how I saw it as well. Nice overview. I have an absentee ballot for Florida, but I'm waiting for the actual day at this point. If Kasich is still in it, he's got my vote. The General election is still up in the air, though.

I think while everyone is attacking Trump, the people who are attacking him are coming off as desperate. Trump OTOH, has been a public figure for 30 years, and he acts like we expect him to act based upon his public persona over those many years. He gets a pass because we seem him acting like he always acts. he might be an ass, but he is at least being authentic and people tend to give people being true to themselves a pass

Well, the hits keep coming.

Quote:

Last year, Wonkblog examined Trump's performance as an investor based on public estimates of his wealth, including his own claims. His numbers were not only worse than those posted by skilled investors such as Warren Buffett, but Trump has made even less than a Main Street investor would by buying decent run-of-the-mill mutual funds to save money, if that investor had started with as much money as Trump did.

In response, several readers wrote in to defend Trump, complaining that comparing the real-estate business to the stock market is comparing apples to oranges.

That's true, but it turns out that making money in real estate has been even easier than making money in stocks during the past several decades. Compared to other investors in his business, Trump's performance looks much worse than when compared to ordinary people who save money in the stock market.

In 1976, Trump told the New York Times that he was worth $200 million. Had he put that money in an ordinary fund based on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, the kind that many people use to save money for retirement, he'd have $12 billion today. That is more than the $10 billion he has claimed he is worth. Bloomberg estimates his wealth at $2.9 billion.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/04/the-key-difference-between-how-trump-and-romney-made-their-money/

Quote: Boz

Odds are the current guy in the White House is larger.

Well he is only half black technically, so maybe not.

Quote: Boz

Odds are the current guy in the White House is larger.

I agree, Michelle Obama's penis is the biggest, for sure.

The fact that candidates are debating penis size shows how far we've come as a country. I've never been so proud to call myself an American.

Quote: HowMany

The fact that candidates are debating penis size shows how far we've come as a country. I've never been so proud to call myself an American.

It is amazing that there is nothing else to worry about...they now can discuss this instead! All of our problems are gone!

Quote: RonC

It is amazing that there is nothing else to worry about...they now can discuss this instead! All of our problems are gone!

All the insults flying back and forth, little hands, little man ect
Amazing Mr alpha male Trump is extremely sensitive regarding the size of his dick.
What a dick.
But the result of the debate is we have a bunch of dicks arguing
Dick Nixon must be rolling in his grave :-)

Donald Trump is veering very much towards the center.

His positions are changing by the day. First he backtracked on the Muslim ban. Today he announced he would no longer target terrorists families and he doesn't support torture.

If I were a rightie who was supporting him, I'd be pissed. I hate to say this, but Ted Cruz is absolutely correct. You have no idea what to expect from a President Trump. He isn't a conservative.

As a liberal, it makes me feel a little better. I'd much rather have a President Trump than a President Cruz.

Quote: ams288

Donald Trump is veering .

That's all you had to say. I think he's riding Ozzy Osbourne's "Crazy Train" (you old folks have heard of it)

Quote:

All aboard! Hahahahahahaha

Crazy, but that's how it goes
Millions of people living as foes

Mental wounds not healing
Life's a bitter shame
I'm goin' off the rails on a crazy train
I'm goin' off the rails on a crazy train

I've listened to preachers,
I've listened to fools
I've watched all the dropouts
Who make their own rules
One person conditioned to rule and control
The media sells it and you live the role

Mental wounds still screaming
Driving me insane
I'm goin' off the rails on a crazy train
I'm goin' off the rails on a crazy train

I know that things are going wrong for me
You gotta listen to my words, yeah, yeah

Heirs of a cold war,
that's what we've become
Inheriting troubles,
I'm mentally numb
Crazy, I just cannot bear

Okay, I modified the lyrics a little.

Quote: HowMany

The fact that candidates are debating penis size shows how far we've come as a country. I've never been so proud to call myself an American.

I can't wait until the General Election when they debate if Trump is bigger than the cigar her husband used was.

Trump might not survive. They are going to throw
everything at him now, superpacs with 10's
of millions who's only job is TV ads night and
day with any dirt they have on him. They're
hoping by Ap and May that Trump fatigue
might set in and he won't have enough
delegates and they can somehow slip
Little Marco in at a brokered convention.
Just might work, except the whiney little
creep will be eaten alive by Hillary. Ever
notice when he smiles in a debate he looks
like a Halloween pumpkin gone wrong?

Quote: EvenBob

Trump might not survive. They are going to throw
everything at him now, superpacs with 10's
of millions who's only job is TV ads night and
day with any dirt they have on him.

Well, they were going to do that to any of them. Perhaps the only difference with Trump is a number of Republicans who may be spending money in pacs against their own front runner. Not just Democrats.

Reminds me of Apocalypse Now when they went after one of their own.

Quote:

Captain Benjamin L. Willard: Terminate the Colonel?
General Corman: He's out there operating without any decent restraint, totally beyond the pale of any acceptable human conduct. And he is still in the field commanding troops.
Jerry: Terminate with extreme prejudice.
Colonel G. Lucas: You understand, Captain, that this mission does not exist, nor will it ever exist.

The Republicans have four events today, with a total of 155 delegates in play. I think that all contests are proportional; some look like they have a threshold for being awarded delegates. This is the first event since the last debate and the Romney speech, so we will see if there is any impact. I haven't been "for" Trump but I am disgusted by the "Anybody But Trump" movement because it is a bunch of people who are trying to prevent one candidate from winning without being on the side of a particular candidate. I guess it is their "right" to do this but beating Trump should not be more important than beating Hillary and keeping the House and Senate.

Trump is coming to the center; that should be the concern of the conservatives more than some "movement" bankrolled for people who just want more of the same. Those dividers should join a "team" and push a candidate to get their "brokered convention", not just attack a candidate. It is a bad look.

If Trump isn't beaten it what the new voters consider a "fair" fight (and they have a loose definition for that, to be fair, based on their support for Trump and his antics), they won't be around in the general election. That could lead to a disaster because the one thing the Republicans have going for them is the excitement of the voters. Hillary doesn't excite many people...

Kansas--Caucus
40 Total Delegates
Trump +6

Kentucky--Caucus
46 Total Delegates
Trump +13

Louisiana--Primary
46 Total Delegates
Trump +12

Maine--Caucus
23 Total Delegates
???--I couldn't find a recent poll; Christie led in November...

Regarding the higher turnout of Republicans in the primaries:

Quote: Nate Silver

Since 1972, the party with higher turnout in primaries has gone 4-7 in the general election.

Quote: ams288

Regarding the higher turnout of Republicans in the primaries:

Quote: Nate Silver

Since 1972, the party with higher turnout in primaries has gone 4-7 in the general election.

I found that quote on Twitter, is there a link to the actual research that shows what kind of races they were? I may have missed it in my search.

Does it factor in anything or is it just a raw number? Party? Contested? Uncontested? Situation at the time?

Here is a Twitter reply:

r-q-tek86:
@NateSilver538 @KyleFieldCanopy @rupertmurdoch 5 of the 7 were sitting presidents that faced no real opposition... 72, 84, 96, 04 and 12

So, if this is true, in elections not involving sitting Presidents, the record is more like 4-2.

Quote: ams288

Regarding the higher turnout of Republicans in the primaries:

However with an incumbent running turnout should be lower and has an advantage. This would eliminate 1972 (Nixon incumbent and running), 1976 (Ford incumbent albeit an unelected one and running) 1980 (Carter incumbent and running), 1984 (Reagan incumbent and running), 1992 (Bush incumbent and running), 1996 (Clinton incumbent and running), 2004 (Bush incumbent and running), 2012 (Obama incumbent and running)

I haven't looked at the data, but logic would dictate that neither of these 7 candidates had a higher voter turnout in the primaries due to it being basically a sure thing with a sitting president running. The sitting President went 5-3, or for your data set, the group with the higher primary turnout went 3-5, making it 1-2 in the elections that are genuinely being. Part of me would like to throw out the 1976 election due to the unique circumstances with Ford never being truly elected. The election models we should use for this data set are election with no incumbent and with a President coming off of an 8 year Presidency, so 2008, 2000, 1988, 1968 (but that is unique since Johnson was eligible for re-election but decided not to), 1960, 1952 etc.

Cruz is doing really well today in the
caucuses and primaries. The DC
establishment hates Cruz as much
or more than they hate Trump. This
is pretty funny. Rubio can't get
any breaks. I really don't care who
gets the nomination just as long
as it's not Bush or Rubio. Bush is
gone, and Rubio is almost gone.
Both are bought and paid for tools
of the establishment.

And who will pay for Trump's national
campaign if he wins. It costs a massive
amount, he'll have to take superpac
money, something he said he'd never
do.

Am I the only person who noticed, in Romney's statement and later that night in the debate, even though the word "bankruptcy" was thrown around a lot, it was never paired with the word "Casino"? When the Trump bankruptcies are examined, you can't avoid noticing that Trump Casinos were involved. Heavily. Probably impacting the most employees, and the most investors cheated out of their part in his businesses. (Sorry, don't have the numbers to back up saying "most".)

My theory is that the hand of Adelson is showing. He is pulling strings behind the scenes, and I would bet specifically bankrolling Rubio, and does not want the casino business sullied or paired in the public's mind with Trump while discussing Trump's many failures.

Oh, and holy crapola, are we getting bombed with anti-Trump advertising here. 3 pieces of mail/day and several commercials an hour on every channel. Duck and cover until the 15th is in effect at my house.

Quote: EvenBob

Cruz is doing really well today in the
caucuses and primaries. The DC
establishment hates Cruz as much
or more than they hate Trump.

This is an interesting development and, if it builds some momentum, will the "Establishment" swing towards Cruz? He is hated, as you said, but they don't want Trump to be the candidate.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Oh, and holy crapola, are we getting bombed with anti-Trump advertising here. 3 pieces of mail/day and several commercials an hour on every channel. Duck and cover until the 15th is in effect at my house.

Same here.

Lots of anti-Trump ads on TV here in MI from various super pacs.

Quote: RonC

This is an interesting development and, if it builds some momentum, will the "Establishment" swing towards Cruz? He is hated, as you said, but they don't want Trump to be the candidate.

Who in congress is backing Cruz, nobody. He's
ultra conservative and unwavering in his convictions.
They don't want him for different reasons than
they don't want Trump.

Quote: EvenBob

Who in congress is backing Cruz, nobody. He's
ultra conservative and unwavering in his convictions.
They don't want him for different reasons than
they don't want Trump.

One former Senator and these present/former Representatives:


U.S. Representatives (current and former)

Justin Amash, Representative from Michigan[184] (previously endorsed Rand Paul)[185]
Brian Babin, Representative from Texas[186]
Bob Barr, former Representative from Georgia; also Libertarian Nominee in 2008[187]
Jim Bridenstine, Representative from Oklahoma[188]
Mo Brooks, Representative from Alabama[189]
Paul Broun, former Representative from Georgia[190]
Ken Buck, Representative from Colorado[191]
Michael C. Burgess, Representative from Texas[192]
John Culberson, Representative from Texas[193]
David Davis, former Representative from Tennessee[194]
Jeff Duncan, Representative from South Carolina[195]
Trent Franks, Representative from Arizona (also endorses Marco Rubio)[196]
Louie Gohmert, Representative from Texas[197]
Paul Gosar, Representative from Arizona[198]
Sam Graves, Representative from Missouri[199]
Jody Hice, Representative from Georgia[200]
Tim Huelskamp, Representative from Kansas[201]
Sam Johnson, Representative from Texas[202]
Steve King, Representative from Iowa[203]
Jack Kingston, former Representative from Georgia[204]
Raúl Labrador, Representative from Idaho[205] (previously endorsed Rand Paul)[206]
Tom McClintock, Representative from California[207]
Mark Meadows, Representative from North Carolina[208]
Alex Mooney, Representative from West Virginia[209]
John Ratcliffe, Representative from Texas[196]
Dana Rohrabacher, Representative from California[210]
Jim Ryun, former Representative from Kansas[211]
Mark Sanford, Representative from South Carolina; also former Governor of South Carolina[212]
Tom Tancredo, former Representative from Colorado; also presidential candidate in 2008[213][214]
Randy Weber, Representative from Texas[215]
Roger Williams, Representative from Texas[216]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

The question, though , is not who likes him...it is who will the Republicans support if it comes down to Trump and Cruz?

Fox has their "C" team on stumbling over their lines. I thought they were calling their own races on other nights; they are using the AP so far today. Today's primaries have fewer polls available than most; they are almost the forgotten primaries.

Hillary will pull further away from Bernie. He's toast...

Quote: beachbumbabs

Am I the only person who noticed, in Romney's statement and later that night in the debate, even though the word "bankruptcy" was thrown around a lot, it was never paired with the word "Casino"? When the Trump bankruptcies are examined, you can't avoid noticing that Trump Casinos were involved. Heavily. Probably impacting the most employees, and the most investors cheated out of their part in his businesses. (Sorry, don't have the numbers to back up saying "most".)

My theory is that the hand of Adelson is showing. He is pulling strings behind the scenes, and I would bet specifically bankrolling Rubio, and does not want the casino business sullied or paired in the public's mind with Trump while discussing Trump's many failures.

I liked how he said Trump is playing the American people for "suckers." A casino owner sure knows how to do that!

Quote: RonC

One former Senator and these present/former Representatives:

I meant to say the Senate, not congress.
Nobody in the senate likes him. His
fellow senators are not behind him.

Quote: EvenBob

I meant to say the Senate, not congress.
Nobody in the senate likes him. His
fellow senators are not behind him.

Quote: Lindsey Graham

"If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you."

I love that quote.

Quote: Lindsay Graham

"A good Republican would defend Ted Cruz after tonight. That ain’t happening, If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate and the trial was in the Senate, nobody could convict you."

Quote: ams288

I love that quote.

That is because Graham is a fake; just another establishment guy who winks at the Democrats and agrees to do nothing while Americans suffer. He is useless.

It is a cute quote, though...

Hillary should be arrested- everything about her and what she says is fake- she will do anything to be president I just cannot understand how anyone in the country is for bigger government

Rubio will win Puerto Rico tomorrow.
A Latino winning a 100% Latino island.
Who could have seen that coming..

That win along with 99 cents will get him a cup of coffee at McDonald's-

What motivates this obscene amount of anti-Trump spending?

They are buying candidates. Trump can't be bought. It's panic time.

Quote: Sabretom2

What motivates this obscene amount of anti-Trump spending?

.

The republican establishment is afraid of losing the Senate and maybe the House and definitely the Presidency

We the Sheeple might be waking up.

Quote: Sabretom2

We the Sheeple might be waking up.

That's just what they want you to think. Status quo at any price.

How many people here believe that Hillary will be indicted?

I believe that even Nate Silver (aka John Edwards-Crossing Over) believes that she possibly could be indicted.

Quote: Keyser

How many people here believe that Hillary will be indicted?

I believe that even Nate Silver (aka John Edwards-Crossing Over) believes that she possibly could be indicted.

Judge Napolitano says if they've granted immunity
to a witness, it means there's been a grand jury
held. If that's true, they're very serious about getting
to the bottom of this. If this were a Repub, he would
have been long gone, the press would have been
relentless. But because it's Hillary, the average person
on the street barely knows this is even going on.

Quote: Sabretom2

What motivates this obscene amount of anti-Trump spending?

They are buying candidates. Trump can't be bought. It's panic time.

A trump nomination is the end of the republican party as we know it, that's why. But they probably shouldn't be, the party's struggles at times can be attributed to a mostly elitist condescending attitude toward undecided voters

Quote: mcallister3200

A trump nomination is the end of the republican party as we know it,

What clue would we have that it's gone?
They talk and act like Dems now, who
can tell the difference. That's why Trump
is winning, it's all just one big party now.

Nate Silver sure blew it on his Trump predictions.

And his Bush predictions....and...

17 million watched the debate on Thursday.
This late in the season, if it had been Bush,
Rubio and Cruz, with no Trump, they would
have been lucky to get 2 million. Like him
or hate him, Trump has something none of
the rest have. He also makes himself
available like no other candidate in history.
Everybody else gives a short speech after
an election, Trump holds news conferences.
He never turns down any offer to speak on
radio or TV, if he has time to do it. Who else
has ever done that.

Quote: EvenBob

What clue would we have that it's gone? They talk and act like Dems now, who can tell the difference. That's why Trump is winning, it's all just one big party now.

If they allow gays to get married, while abortion remains legal, and if the national debt doubles whenever a Republican is president we would know the party is struggling. If they lose twice in a row to a foreign born Muslim socialist, followed by another loss to a criminal, that would be a lot more than just a clue that their ideology has completely disappeared.

Quote: Keyser

Nate Silver sure blew it on his Trump predictions.

And his Bush predictions....and...

Based on Silver's analysis I would have been willing to lay 20-1 against Trump winning the election last summer. Couldn't find any takers. So either everyone else was just following his lead or every one else independently came to the same conclusions he did.

I'm currently willing to bet even money that Trump won't win. Of course, no one would ever take that, because every one agrees with Silver's analysis that he still has a less than 50% chance of winning.

Quote: TomG

If they lose twice in a row to a foreign born Muslim socialist, followed by another loss to a criminal, that would be a lot more than just a clue that their ideology has completely disappeared.

Well that hasn't happened yet, so we are at least three elections away from this strange prediction of yours..