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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4913
November 30th, 2016 at 7:03:43 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Bucks +250


YTD
Favorites -185
Underdogs -552
Total -737
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4913
November 30th, 2016 at 7:11:34 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Kings laying -200 to win 100
 Grizzlies laying 100 to win 600
 Heat laying 100 to win 200
 Pacers laying 100 to win 270
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 182
November 30th, 2016 at 1:35:03 PM permalink
Steel, have you tried modeling/playing these underdog type picks ATS and/or with teasers? I assume you're system is picking up dogs who have a better than implied odds. Thus wouldn't in reason some of the games will be close even if they aren't moneyline winners?
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
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November 30th, 2016 at 1:39:18 PM permalink
bazooooka, I have tried modeling picks ATS, but not teasers, without success. However, the current algorithm was not what was used back when I did try picking ATS. I have not tracked how the current model would work ATS.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 182
November 30th, 2016 at 5:37:57 PM permalink
I found cheap online books with 6 and 7 pt teasers and have done well by picking my spots. I like the Memphis pick tonight for points and ML. It actually went off at +900; I do think Memphis wins games like this more than 10% of the time even sans Conley.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 63
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November 30th, 2016 at 6:51:44 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

I found cheap online books with 6 and 7 pt teasers and have done well by picking my spots. I like the Memphis pick tonight for points and ML. It actually went off at +900; I do think Memphis wins games like this more than 10% of the time even sans Conley.



The house edge on 7 pt teasers must be crazy.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 182
November 30th, 2016 at 7:03:02 PM permalink
5 and 6 pts are more common and you need to get them cheap and hit the 2 teamers about 75% time or more. I rarely do it since it's not a strategy that scales to volume bets. But can be good when you find an already inflated line and ask yourself will the Warriors (as an example) really be motivated to win this one by 24+ pts off of one day rest. Sometimes I leave the teaser open for a few weeks until I find another situation I like equally well. I've made money but it's a tiny sample size. It's not something I recommend but can be fun if you're already inclined toward such things.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 182
November 30th, 2016 at 7:47:33 PM permalink
Bucks and others hit nicely. Google the below part to see what a rare Tuesday night it was.

/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/126796/how-the-upsets-happened-big-night-for-nba-underdogs

>>
>>
A true long shot

One additional perspective on this combination of unlikely events: A $100 three-team parlay on the Magic, Nets and Bucks in Las Vegas would have paid $20,712.50.

Stat of the Day

The Elias Sports Bureau reports that this is the second time in NBA history that the team with the worse record won every game in the NBA in a given day (minimum 15 games into the season, at least six games played). The other instance was Jan. 7, 1969 (six games).
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4913
December 1st, 2016 at 6:16:26 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Grizzlies -100
 Heat +200
 Pacers -100


YTD
Favorites -185
Underdogs -552
Total -737
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4913
December 1st, 2016 at 6:25:05 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Cavaliers laying -200 to win 100
 Magic laying -123 to win 100
 Rockets laying 100 to win 475
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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