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steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 18th, 2016 at 6:55:48 AM permalink
The data shows, so far for this year, that any dog picked at less than a +130 dog has been a loser. Nearly all of the amount lost on dogs is in this group. I am adjusting the algorithm for this going forward.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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December 18th, 2016 at 7:49:30 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Mavericks laying -125 to win 100
 76ers laying -130 to win 100
 Heat laying 100 to win 160
 Raptors laying -210 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
SOOPOO
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December 18th, 2016 at 8:03:49 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

The data shows, so far for this year, that any dog picked at less than a +130 dog has been a loser. Nearly all of the amount lost on dogs is in this group. I am adjusting the algorithm for this going forward.



If you have a defined unambiguous selection process, why don't you see how it would have done LAST year? Or the last 5 years?
steeldco
steeldco
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December 18th, 2016 at 8:36:09 AM permalink
Because the stats are updated after each game and picks are based upon those. If I were to try to backtest, then I would have to go back and update each day of the season, find the money lines at that time, get the algorithm's picks, and determine how they did. It can be done, but I'm not about to devote that amount of time in order to do so.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
SOOPOO
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December 18th, 2016 at 8:41:54 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Because the stats are updated after each game and picks are based upon those. If I were to try to backtest, then I would have to go back and update each day of the season, find the money lines at that time, get the algorithm's picks, and determine how they did. It can be done, but I'm not about to devote that amount of time in order to do so.



Understood. Do you take into account the egregious practice of a team sitting its 3 best players for 'rest'? Your algorithm might have shown Cleveland to be a good bet against Memphis but you and I know differently....
steeldco
steeldco
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December 18th, 2016 at 8:53:59 AM permalink
When I am aware of those instances, then yes I will just drop the pick.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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December 18th, 2016 at 1:01:34 PM permalink
If you don't play the +130 thru +300 type dogs aren't you basically just betting chalk and slight underdogs? I'd think you might want to keep the +200 and greater type dogs in there when they are "home dogs" like Timberwolves was last night
steeldco
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December 18th, 2016 at 1:04:37 PM permalink
Thanks bazooooka, but I think you misunderstood. The +101 thru +129 dogs, when picked, are predominantly losers. I have tweaked the algorithm to exclude those.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
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December 18th, 2016 at 1:30:37 PM permalink
I see. Would it have been better to just spread bet them?

Or is your data saying that the +101 to +129, albeit slight dogs, have not pulling upsets at a rate commensurate with their odds (or even in the ballpark) and thus they have been mostly losing their games outright.
steeldco
steeldco
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December 18th, 2016 at 1:50:50 PM permalink
For whatever the reason, that group of dogs has been downright horrible. There have been 18 picks in this group. Only 6 of them have won. They resulted in 696 of winnings. The other 12 were 1,200 in losses. A net loss of -504 for the group.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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December 18th, 2016 at 1:59:34 PM permalink
Hmm I would have figured about 40-45% would have pulled upsets. Maybe your being to quick to exclude. Mean reversion might kick in. Good luck.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 19th, 2016 at 7:14:29 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +200
 Mavericks +100
 76ers +100
 Heat -100
 Raptors +100


YTD:
Favorites -45
Underdogs -726
Total -771
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 19th, 2016 at 7:21:00 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Hawks laying 100 to win 130
 Suns laying 100 to win 185
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 20th, 2016 at 8:43:36 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +30
 Hawks +130
 Suns -100


YTD:
Favorites -45
Underdogs -696
Total -741
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 20th, 2016 at 8:56:15 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 76ers laying 100 to win 140
 Lakers laying 100 to win 375
 Bucks laying 100 to win 150
 Jazz laying 100 to win 575
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 21st, 2016 at 4:45:16 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -400
 76ers -100
 Lakers -100
 Bucks -100
 Jazz -100

YTD:
Favorites -45
Underdogs -1096
Total -1141
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 21st, 2016 at 9:04:46 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pistons laying -280 to win 100
 Hawks laying -185 to win 100
 Wizards laying 100 to win 160
 Jazz laying -290 to win 100
 Mavericks laying 100 to win 180
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 22nd, 2016 at 3:50:47 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -415
 Pistons -280
 Hawks -185
 Wizards +160
 Jazz -290
 Mavericks +180

YTD:
Favorites -800
Underdogs -756
Total -1556
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 22nd, 2016 at 4:05:36 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pacers laying -110 to win EV
 Knicks laying -235 to win 100
 Lakers laying 100 to win 170
 Clippers laying -110 to win EV
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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December 22nd, 2016 at 2:38:26 PM permalink
Hi Steel, what do your models see on laying chalk on favorites? I've often assumed that lines are slightly tilted against favorites since Joe public prefers them. It'd seem a decent run on dogs could square you up but the Chalk would have to hit to 70% going forward to bring you toward even. Have you looked at just betting dogs whenever your model sees ML value?
steeldco
steeldco
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December 23rd, 2016 at 7:29:56 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Hi Steel, what do your models see on laying chalk on favorites? I've often assumed that lines are slightly tilted against favorites since Joe public prefers them. It'd seem a decent run on dogs could square you up but the Chalk would have to hit to 70% going forward to bring you toward even. Have you looked at just betting dogs whenever your model sees ML value?



bazooooka, I'm glad you brought this up. I'm going to tweak the algorithm on favorites. When I saw your comment, I broke down the favorite picks made so far (albeit a small sample size). Right now the favorites have hit at a 60% rate. Obviously not enough since we were laying quite a bit on some of those losses. However, in this process I noticed that the favorites up to -199 accounted for nearly all of the YTD losses. This is the change that I will be making.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 23rd, 2016 at 7:31:02 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -10
Pacers -110
 Knicks 100
 Lakers -100
 Clippers 100

YTD:
Favorites -700
Underdogs -866
Total -1566
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 23rd, 2016 at 8:28:38 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Bulls laying 100 to win 150
 Thunder laying 100 to win 160
 Pelicans laying -200 to win 100
 Grizzlies laying 100 to win 140
 76ers laying 100 to win 165
 Mavericks laying 100 to win 220
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 24th, 2016 at 6:58:13 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +420
 Bulls -100
 Thunder +160
 Pelicans +100
 Grizzlies +140
 76ers -100
 Mavericks +220


YTD:
Favorites -600
Underdogs -546
Total -1146
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 25th, 2016 at 7:25:20 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Knicks laying 100 to win 130
 Bulls laying 100 to win 350
 Timberwolves laying 100 to win 170
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 26th, 2016 at 6:51:29 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -300
 Knicks -100
 Bulls -100
 Timberwolves -100



YTD:
Favorites -600
Underdogs -846
Total -1446
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 26th, 2016 at 8:25:26 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Hornets laying -270 to win 100
 76ers laying 100 to win 315
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 27th, 2016 at 4:16:56 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -370
 Hornets -270
 76ers -100


YTD:
Favorites -870
Underdogs -946
Total -1816
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 27th, 2016 at 5:35:45 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Celtics laying -270 to win 100
 Thunder laying -150 to win 100
 Mavericks laying 100 to win 225
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 28th, 2016 at 7:25:28 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +100
 Celtics +100
 Thunder +100
 Mavericks -100


YTD:
Favorites -670
Underdogs -1046
Total -1716
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 28th, 2016 at 9:28:28 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pacers laying 100 to win 180
 Bucks laying 100 to win 135
 Bulls laying -450 to win 100
 Clippers laying 100 to win 190
 Suns laying 100 to win 1175
 Raptors laying 100 to win 375
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 29th, 2016 at 9:39:35 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -165
 Pacers -100
 Bucks +135
 Bulls +100
 Clippers -100
 Suns -100
 Raptors -100


YTD:
Favorites -570
Underdogs -1311
Total -1881
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 29th, 2016 at 10:09:43 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Heat laying 100 to win 230
 Cavaliers laying -255 to win 100
 Suns laying 100 to win 360


I sure am getting tired of seeing the Suns showing up in the picks.................
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 30th, 2016 at 5:38:23 AM permalink
Apparently bitchin' about something helps.....

Yesterday's Results: +360
 Heat -100
 Cavaliers +100
 Suns +360

YTD:
Favorites -470
Underdogs -1051
Total -1521
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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December 30th, 2016 at 8:36:13 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Apparently bitchin' about something helps.....

Yesterday's Results: +360
 Heat -100
 Cavaliers +100
 Suns +360

YTD:
Favorites -470
Underdogs -1051
Total -1521



I call it "whine and win". Can't invoke it too often or it wears out. Lol...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
steeldco
steeldco
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December 30th, 2016 at 8:45:27 AM permalink
"whine and win"..... I like it. I'll try not to wear it out....
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 30th, 2016 at 8:57:06 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Nets laying 100 to win 315
 Heat laying 100 to win 370
 Rockets laying -240 to win 100
 Trailblazers laying 100 to win 575
 Nuggets laying -700 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 31st, 2016 at 7:48:00 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -900
 Nets -100
 Heat -100
 Rockets +100
 Trailblazers -100
 Nuggets -700


YTD:
Favorites -1070
Underdogs -1351
Total -2421
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 31st, 2016 at 7:56:41 AM permalink
The algorithm found nothing worth playing today. No picks today.
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WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 31st, 2016 at 9:35:14 AM permalink
Holy Sh$%^... Steeldco! You are still at that algorithm picking again? lol I remember you from a few years ago. I just started posting on this site again recently. How have your games been doing?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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December 31st, 2016 at 9:38:43 AM permalink
Great on baseball. OK on football. Absolutely suck (so far) at the World Wrestling, er NBA.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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January 1st, 2017 at 10:13:12 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pistons laying -200 to win 100
 Trailblazers laying 100 to win 180
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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January 2nd, 2017 at 6:43:59 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +280
 Pistons +100
 Trailblazers +180

YTD:
Favorites -970
Underdogs -1171
Total -2141
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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January 2nd, 2017 at 10:55:12 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Cavaliers laying -460 to win 100
 Rockets laying -475 to win 100
 Nuggets laying 100 to win 1100
 Clippers laying -225 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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January 3rd, 2017 at 6:48:50 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +200
 Cavaliers 100
 Rockets 100
 Nuggets -100
 Clippers 100



YTD:
Favorites -670
Underdogs -1271
Total -1941
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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January 3rd, 2017 at 7:52:50 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Spurs laying -245 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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January 4th, 2017 at 6:11:31 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +100
 Spurs +100



YTD:
Favorites -570
Underdogs -1271
Total -1841
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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January 4th, 2017 at 9:17:55 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Cavaliers laying -235 to win 100
 Kings laying -400 to win 100


Awfully odd that we haven't had a dog picked for a couple of days now............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:28:56 PM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -635
 Cavaliers -235
 Kings -400


YTD:
Favorites -1205
Underdogs -1271
Total -2476
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:37:33 PM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pacers laying -600 to win 100
 Rockets laying -400 to win 100
 Spurs laying -380 to win 100
 Trailblazers laying -250 to win 100


This must now be the 3rd. or 4th. day without a dog getting picked. I would never have guessed that it would go this long without a dog. Not to mention the fact that at the prices of these favorites, a losing day is murderous.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
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