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steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 27th, 2017 at 11:43:29 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Magic laying 100 to win 310
 76ers laying 100 to win 225
 Wizards laying 100 to win 140
 Pelicans laying 100 to win 210
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 28th, 2017 at 3:03:24 PM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +150
 Magic -100
 76ers -100
 Wizards +140
 Pelicans +210


YTD:
Favorites -2388
Underdogs -543
Total -2931
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 28th, 2017 at 3:09:21 PM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Kings laying 100 to win 270
 Clippers laying 100 to win 600
 Nuggets laying 100 to win 130
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 29th, 2017 at 6:48:30 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +300
 Kings +270
 Clippers -100
 Nuggets +130

YTD:
Favorites -2388
Underdogs -243
Total -2631
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 29th, 2017 at 7:54:06 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Knicks laying 100 to win 220
 Thunder laying 100 to win 255
 Pacers laying 100 to win 140
 76ers laying 100 to win 220
 Trailblazers laying 100 to win 325
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 30th, 2017 at 12:12:56 PM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -260
 Knicks -100
 Thunder -100
 Pacers +140
 76ers -100
 Trailblazers -100



YTD:
Favorites -2388
Underdogs -503
Total -2891
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 30th, 2017 at 12:17:40 PM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Nets laying 100 to win 305
 Suns laying 100 to win 145
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 31st, 2017 at 8:31:04 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -200
 Nets -100
 Suns -100


YTD:
Favorites -2388
Underdogs -703
Total -3091
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 31st, 2017 at 8:35:27 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Knicks laying 100 to win 275
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
atx78744
atx78744
atx78744
  • Threads: 1
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Joined: Jan 31, 2017
January 31st, 2017 at 12:00:20 PM permalink
who ya'll got for tonight spurs or thunder
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
January 31st, 2017 at 12:42:06 PM permalink
I have a leaning to the Spurs, but not enough to actually pick them.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 1st, 2017 at 5:44:33 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -100
 Knicks -100


YTD:
Favorites -2388
Underdogs -803
Total -3191
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 1st, 2017 at 8:13:02 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Timberwolves laying 100 to win 250
 76ers laying 100 to win 220
 Bucks laying 100 to win 310
 Bulls laying 100 to win 140
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 2nd, 2017 at 8:52:28 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -160
 Timberwolves -100
 76ers -100
 Bucks -100
 Bulls 140


YTD:
Favorites -2388
Underdogs -963
Total -3351
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 2nd, 2017 at 8:57:06 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Lakers laying 100 to win 525
 Clippers laying 100 to win 310
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 3rd, 2017 at 1:00:35 PM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -200
 Lakers -100
 Clippers -100


YTD:
Favorites -2388
Underdogs -1163
Total -3551
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 3rd, 2017 at 1:07:40 PM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Magic laying 100 to win 180
 Timberwolves laying 100 to win 160
 Bulls laying 100 to win 240
 Lakers laying 100 to win 535
 Bucks laying 100 to win 135
 Mavericks laying 100 to win 180
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 4th, 2017 at 7:52:49 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -40
 Magic +180
 Timberwolves -100
 Bulls -100
 Lakers -100
 Bucks -100
 Mavericks +180

YTD:
Favorites -2388
Underdogs -1203
Total -3591
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 4th, 2017 at 8:17:25 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pistons laying 100 to win 160
 Pelicans laying 100 to win 275
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
michael99000
michael99000
michael99000
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February 4th, 2017 at 10:45:34 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks:
 Pistons laying 100 to win 160
 Pelicans laying 100 to win 275



You picked the wrong night to stop betting against Golden State.
Kings get the outright win as a 15 point dog
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 5th, 2017 at 4:19:29 AM permalink
Yep. Sucks. The Kings were eliminated by virtue of the fact that this game was the 2nd. half of a back to back.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 5th, 2017 at 4:23:45 AM permalink
I see where the Pelicans scored a whole 8 points in the 4th. quarter. Really? 8 friggin' points? Most high school teams don't do that....

Yesterday's Results: -200
 Pistons -100
 Pelicans -100


YTD:
Favorites -2388
Underdogs -1403
Total -3791
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 5th, 2017 at 8:51:00 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Raptors laying -300 to win 100
 Clippers laying 100 to win 170
 Trailblazers laying 100 to win 165
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 6th, 2017 at 9:34:09 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -100
 Raptors +100
 Clippers -100
 Trailblazers -100


YTD:
Favorites -2288
Underdogs -1603
Total -3891
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 6th, 2017 at 9:42:52 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Lakers laying 100 to win 170
 Pacers laying -165 to win 100
 Suns laying 100 to win 190
 Mavericks laying 100 to win 135
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 7th, 2017 at 3:31:30 PM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +70
 Lakers +170
 Pacers +100
 Suns -100
 Mavericks -100


YTD:
Favorites -2188
Underdogs -1633
Total -3821
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 7th, 2017 at 3:44:51 PM permalink
There will be no picks today since it seems that there is a problem with connecting to basketball-reference.com and some of its data that I use. It tells me that the page is missing and I'm so tired of computers today that I'm not going to spend any more time on this. Hopefully they fix it for tomorrow.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
SM777
SM777
SM777
  • Threads: 6
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Joined: Apr 8, 2016
February 7th, 2017 at 4:06:04 PM permalink
Nice to see someone openly post picks and track the results even though they are negative at the moment. Unfortunately JoelDeeze tried to lie and shmooze the board into paying for his crappy picks.

Best of luck.
black2
black2
black2
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February 7th, 2017 at 11:46:11 PM permalink
Good luck tomorrow. There wasn't a lot of games on the schedule for today.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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February 8th, 2017 at 8:25:59 AM permalink
SM777 and black2, thanks a lot for the wishes of good luck!!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 8th, 2017 at 8:49:35 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pacers laying 100 to win 135
 Heat laying 100 to win 135
 Suns laying 100 to win 350
 Timberwolves laying 100 to win 140
 Bulls laying 100 to win 950
 Kings laying 100 to win 320
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 9th, 2017 at 7:17:35 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +295
 Pacers -100
 Heat +135
 Suns -100
 Timberwolves +140
 Bulls -100
 Kings +320


YTD:
Favorites -2188
Underdogs -1338
Total -3526
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 9th, 2017 at 7:22:57 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Hornets laying 100 to win 155
 Mavericks laying 100 to win 150
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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February 9th, 2017 at 9:51:31 AM permalink
Since I like to be a man with a plan....here it is.
I see where dogs of +101 to +129 have generated net losses of -601. I found this earlier on (01/25/17) and I had the algorithms eliminate those since then. BTW, they were 16 and 6. Additionally, I find that dogs getting +801 or more are winless having cost another -1,100. These will be eliminated going forward. The net impact of these 2 changes should be to leave the Dogs getting picked as a net winner of around +400. There have been a total of 228 picks of dogs so far with only 62 winning. The above 2 changes will have reduced the picks by 33.

We'll see if the plan works............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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February 9th, 2017 at 9:54:21 AM permalink
Sorry I forgot to add my reasoning, whether it's right or wrong.
The Dogs getting in excess of +801? I put them in the class of being so bad that they should be taken out and shot.
The Dogs getting between +101 and +129? A somewhat arbitrary range that would consist of the ordinary Joe who is too scared to pick a larger dog, reasoning that they can't possibly win.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
RS
RS
RS
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February 9th, 2017 at 10:37:50 AM permalink
I'm sure it's a bit of work if you don't already have the data saved for this, but have you considered calculating your expected loss (to the HE) over the course of these bets made?


Glad to see someone actually posting their bets, win or lose, and keep a running win/loss total. Hopefully baseball season will be good to you again like it was last year (IIRC). I know you don't get many other posts here, but I and others enjoy following/reading along.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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February 9th, 2017 at 10:43:54 AM permalink
Quote: RS

I'm sure it's a bit of work if you don't already have the data saved for this, but have you considered calculating your expected loss (to the HE) over the course of these bets made?



Hey RS, I'm sorry to say that I'm not sure that I understand your question. Would you mind restating so that this thick headed old guy better understands?
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Feb 12, 2017
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
RS
RS
RS
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February 9th, 2017 at 1:03:04 PM permalink
How do your results compare to the vig?
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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February 9th, 2017 at 1:11:39 PM permalink
Since I was talking about the Dogs, I assume that is what you are asking about? If so, then each loss was a flat 100 which what you would lay on a dog.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
RS
RS
RS
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February 9th, 2017 at 1:23:48 PM permalink
I think I'm not making my point or question clear.


Every bet has a HE or vig (at least, in theory). If both sides of a bet are -110, then the vig is 10/220 or 4.54545%. Every time someone makes this wager, he expects to lose $4.45, assuming he's betting randomly and doesn't "have information" (ie: handicapping or something like that).


My question ultimately I guess, is, How do your results compare to those of what a random or "ploppy" bettor would be doing? Are they in line with what the sportsbook expects to be making off of you? Are you doing worse, the same, or better than the sportsbook would expect you to be doing (if you were a random bettor)?
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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February 9th, 2017 at 1:42:54 PM permalink
RS, since I'm still unsure of how to answer your question in this case of wagering money line dogs I will give you some of the data that I have handy.

There have been 229 picks made of dogs and each of them was a wager of 100. Of the total, 62 were winners (27.19%). Those 62 winners returned 15,072. An average win of 243.10.

I hope this helps. Let me know if not.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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February 10th, 2017 at 6:00:45 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +50
 Hornets -100
 Mavericks +150

YTD:
Favorites -2188
Underdogs -1288
Total -3476
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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February 10th, 2017 at 6:07:49 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Nets laying 100 to win 240
 Pistons laying 100 to win 160
 Knicks laying -145 to win 100
 Bucks laying -190 to win 100
 Timberwolves laying -155 to win 100
 Pacers laying 100 to win 175
 Grizzlies laying 100 to win 285
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 11th, 2017 at 12:14:29 PM permalink
Yesterday's Results: -890 (nothing if not demoralizing......)

 Nets -100
 Pistons -100
 Knicks -145
 Bucks -190
 Timberwolves -155
 Pacers -100
 Grizzlies -100


YTD:
Favorites -2678
Underdogs -1688
Total -4366
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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February 11th, 2017 at 12:34:16 PM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Clippers laying 100 to win 130
 Cavaliers laying -800 to win 100
 Thunder laying 100 to win 260
 Magic laying 100 to win 220
 Celtics laying 100 to win 235
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 12th, 2017 at 5:29:01 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +265
 Clippers +130
 Cavaliers +100
 Thunder -100
 Magic -100
 Celtics +235

YTD:
Favorites -2578
Underdogs -1523
Total -4101
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
February 12th, 2017 at 8:30:30 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Knicks laying 100 to win 300
 Pistons laying 100 to win 235
 Pelicans laying 100 to win 145
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
bazooooka
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February 12th, 2017 at 8:57:34 PM permalink
Steel, are you looking at implied lines and then betting dogs where you think the spread is off? I'd think you'd need to have a correlation with the actual results of all your dog picks being closer to your implied lines vs vegas closing lines? If you see that then long term your strategy should win. For example you may only hit 30% of your underdog picks but if you see that on average the picks resulted in closer games then Vegas predicted then its more likely you are onto a real edge which will eventual show up in your bankroll. However if you go back through them and the Vegas spread was closer to reality than your model than the model is likely only fluctuating randomly and ultimately the long term draw-down will get you I'd suspect.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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February 13th, 2017 at 7:55:26 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results: +435
 Knicks +300
 Pistons +235
 Pelicans -100


YTD:
Favorites -2578
Underdogs -1088
Total -3666
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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February 13th, 2017 at 7:56:46 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel, are you looking at implied lines and then betting dogs where you think the spread is off? I'd think you'd need to have a correlation with the actual results of all your dog picks being closer to your implied lines vs vegas closing lines? If you see that then long term your strategy should win. For example you may only hit 30% of your underdog picks but if you see that on average the picks resulted in closer games then Vegas predicted then its more likely you are onto a real edge which will eventual show up in your bankroll. However if you go back through them and the Vegas spread was closer to reality than your model than the model is likely only fluctuating randomly and ultimately the long term draw-down will get you I'd suspect.



Thanks bazooooka. I appreciate the commentary and help.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
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