Thread Rating:

stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 12th, 2014 at 1:19:47 AM permalink
Quote: SlackJawYokel

I play the Sands PA game often. It is dealer pitch double deck and I have never seen it below $50. They only had a few tables of this game but recently added a few more so you can generally get on a table alone or with one other person. If you want more information let me know.

Slack



Yes, I just got back from Sands ... and it is true..the double deck game is a dealer pitch and the cards are dealt down..I was standing behind the table for a few shoes.. and it seems like it may be harder to count at this game because of the cards dealt down..

SlackJawYokel - they had a total of 8 or 10 of these tables..with about 2 to 3 players per table..with a few empty so certainly easy to get a table by yourself.. it was around 1am on a Monday Night.. with a $50 min..

Do you think this game is beatable and countable.?
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 12th, 2014 at 1:25:43 AM permalink
Quote: CoolMike

A few hints for you in order of importance in my opinion.

1. Start off with the KO count. This is described in the 'KO Blackjack' book by as well as 'The Color of Blackjack'. The index plays are easier for this count. There is no true count conversion needed. A basic bet ramp is discussed that works really well. With this count and 10 hours or so of practice you should be able to hit the casino and have an edge from your very first day of playing. Learn the index plays in order of importance, starting with insurance and 10v6 and move down the list. Start with 5-6 of the regular index plays and 1-2 of the surrender index plays and leave it at that. Add a few plays over the next few weeks until you have at least the illustrious 18 and the fab 4 surrender plays memorized. I promise you will be happier with the KO count than starting off with Hi-Lo. The first 3-5 sessions with hi-lo in a real casino are exhausting in my experience. With one less step to decide on betting and playing decisions you will find you can play quickly and accurately with KO.

2. For an 8 deck game you will need to spread pretty aggressively. 1-12 would be a good start: less than that will make your win rate relative to blackjack's variance too small for comfort. With your bankroll and ROR needs I don't think you can have a 25$ minimum bet yet for the 8 deck game, although I think you are getting close to being able to play 25$ min 8 deck shoes. A 10 dollar min would be better especially as your first few weeks of play will be a roller coaster ride.

3. Buy a subscription to BJ21 green chip. Read all of the posts of the month. Use the search feature a lot. Don't expect tons of free info in the form of replies to your posts, but mine the site for info.

4. You may want to use one of the sim programs on the market to optimize your betting ramp, and more importantly, to calculate your true ROR by sim. Be aware that if expenses are taken out of your bankroll your ROR increases significantly. Norm's CVCX program will help you greatly in this regard. CV blackjack is good for practice as well.

Good luck. Keep your eyes open for additional advantages on your travels. Always check for dealer miss pays! Have fun :)



Thank you for this advice. I will check out the KO count..
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 12th, 2014 at 1:27:20 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

I am saying I suspect he does not know perfect basic strategy, and based on his questions and inclination to attack a 60% pen 8-deck, also has no experience counting. I know a counter who thinks he's APing it, but plays with a 70% ROR everytime he walks thru the door--I pointed him to the best game in the state, he would rather play a different one. I tell him it's pointless to count if he doesn't learn basic strategy, and he forgets to figure the cut-off decks into his true count calculation then hits a 14 against a 4. By playing without an advantage, he can cut into the advantage without cutting into himself, while also learning how it works on his own. You don't know what you are doing, you will bust yourself.



Sonuvabish - You are correct - I have no experience counting.. Although I do know perfect basic strategy as I have played blackjack for 13 years with basic strategy..
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 12th, 2014 at 1:30:11 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

I am suggesting that he can practice in a casino rather than at home. I personally think that is better, probably to the contrary of others. I would strongly suggest a tiny spread like that because at the beginning, there's a very high likelihood you will screw up. When starting, I wanted the slow dealers. Now, I want the super fast ones. When confidence is gained and indices are learned, increase the spread. At that point, maybe you can start asking what is an optimal spread.



Sonuvabish - I do like your suggestion of practicing for real in a casino rather than at home and only betting min or maybe 1-2 spread max.. I was intending to do this..for the first few weeks..before I am fully confident in my counting abilities before I start placing max bets with bigger spreads... I actually have already done 1 practice session just betting the minimum..and I must say it is a lot harder than I thought trying to keep a count and also making decisions on your hands... I am confident however, that I can definitely get better with time..
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 12th, 2014 at 1:37:11 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Lowering your minimum wager increases your hourly win rate, it doesn't decrease it.



I do understand that..lowering your min wage by itself .. increases your hourly win rate because you are losing less money on the negative counts.. but it also decreases the amount of your max bets with a similar spread that you would have had at a higher min bet... to keep the same max bet after lowing your min bet .. one would have to increase their spread - thereby drawing more heat from the pit...no?

(by the way ..not trying to come off as if I know it all..because you are the experienced counter not me.. I am simply making this comment in a form of a question ..based on math and logic..) and I do appreciate your feedback and advice..
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 12th, 2014 at 1:47:44 AM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

I have a question: Why do you want to play blackjack? You have a 40k bankroll and play poker for a living. Here are a few more:

1)Did you get that money playing poker only?
2)What stakes do you play at?
3)Do you realize that playing poker well is the best thing you can do in a casino(playing badly is conversely the worst thing you can do)? Blackjack is the second best thing you can do, but it's a far drop from good poker.

You sound like you go on tilt after losses in poker. That happens. I've done it. But you can just take a break from poker and walk around a bit instead of learning all of these new things and possibly go crazy and go broke. You can go broke only betting big with highly positive counts!



Lemieux66 - answers to your questions..

I want to play blackjack because lately I have been feeling a little bored at the poker table and feel like I can't do any better as I have reached my full potential with regards to my hourly win rate...Don't get me wrong - I still will not give up poker as this is my main source of income..and I do enjoy the social aspects of getting into conversations with people at the poker table.. but I hate the boredom of in between hands and when cards are cold..

I realize at blackjack I would constantly be engaged every second by counting cards..keeping counts... so my mind is constantly active and not seeping into cloud 9 day dreaming like it does at the poker table when nobody is interesting enough to talk to and cards are running cold/in between hands.. I do further realize that the social aspect of conversation will disappear once I am at the blackjack table having to concentrate on counting..I am prepared and willing to accept this change from poker.

1. A portion of the 40K bankroll is from winnings of poker leftover after paying bills.... but the majority of the bankroll is a combination of a 20K 0% balance transfer I took out from a credit card and a ROTH IRA balance that I can withdraw without penalty or being taxed... I technically do have access of up to a 47K bankroll but left out 7K to allow for market fluctuations in my ROTH IRA balance.. I have a separate bankroll for my poker playing..

2. I play 1/2 NL- 1/3NL and 2/5 NL as well as tournaments - with occasional play of 4/8L - 5/10 omaha H/L L

3. I do know playing poker well is very profitable as my excel spreadsheet of my sessions over the years clearly shows..
I will take your word as far as blackjack being a far drop from good poker as I have never played blackjack professionally (counting).. but I still am looking to give it a try.. I rarely go on tilt in poker..but when I do go on tilt or I am running badly in poker I like to get up from poker and play blackjack betting the min when I don't feel like going back to my room..

But I'm looking to play blackjack not when I'm on tilt from playing poker..i'm looking to make this a 2nd venture for me rather than just playing poker...kind of like a 2nd career but a part time career as the majority of my time is dedicated to poker... I would most likely sacrifice 10-15 hours per week playing poker in order to play blackjack profitably.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 12th, 2014 at 2:30:14 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

In my opinion:

1. Wong out aggressively to increase your win rate.

2. You need a higher max bet to make any real money. With a $250 max bet on an 8-deck game you are not making very much. IMO, you need to be willing to go up to $500 at the very least before blackjack is worthwhile (unless you have non-counting ways to get larger edges).

3a. You need a bigger bankroll (see #2).

3b. Always remember that playing 2 hands of half the size reduces variance but leaves your edge the same. eg, 2x$250 has the same edge as a $500 hand but only has the bankroll requirements of a $350 or $400 hand.

3c. Why are you comfortable with a 2% risk of ruin? 2% is not that unlikely. If I was making a living off of this, a 2% risk of ruin would scare the hell out of me.

4. Cover is overrated. This is controversial and many people who make a living doing this, and have a lot more experience than I do, disagree, so I accept that I may be wrong. It's still my opinion, though.



AxiomOfChoice - What do you mean by "4. "Cover is overrated"?

in answer to your question3c. I am comfortable with not going broke 49 out of 50 times. .5% - 1% risk of ruin would be even better..but at the expense of a lower hourly rate.. I an comfortable with the 2% risk of ruin balance as a bottom line ..but nothing over 2% ROR..
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 12th, 2014 at 2:38:10 AM permalink
Quote: Kickass

Again, you are over-betting your bankroll. Can you find $10 or $15 game with the similar rules?
Remember that the fluctuation in blackjack is huge.



If I had somebody to tell me the rate of ruin on a $25 min bet- 1-16 spread having a $400 max bet..on a 40k bankroll. I can better gage what I decide to go with on min bet and spread.. any suggestions on min bet? spread? to give me a risk of ruin between .5% - 2%? on a 6-8 deck game with decent rules and good penetration.? how bout a $15 min bet and a 1-16 spread with a $240 max bet? Also, what would be the average hourly rate on the proposed min bets and spreads?

Can somebody suggest a good chart or when to "up" your unit bets say on a $25 min bet and a 1-16 spread? as the true count increases..

Much Appreciated!
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 76
  • Posts: 9045
March 12th, 2014 at 3:40:48 AM permalink
Henry Tamborin discusses this question here.

He recommends this set of ROR calculators where you can plug in your numbers.

The Wizard himself has a blackjack appendix discussing it as well.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
March 12th, 2014 at 7:43:54 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I do understand that..lowering your min wage by itself .. increases your hourly win rate because you are losing less money on the negative counts.. but it also decreases the amount of your max bets with a similar spread that you would have had at a higher min bet... to keep the same max bet after lowing your min bet .. one would have to increase their spread - thereby drawing more heat from the pit...no?

(by the way ..not trying to come off as if I know it all..because you are the experienced counter not me.. I am simply making this comment in a form of a question ..based on math and logic..) and I do appreciate your feedback and advice..



The max bet at 15 dollar minimum tables is still pretty gigantic in relation to your roll. In AC, it'll be 1500 usually. More than good enough. Good rules at 15 dollar games are the real issue.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.

  • Jump to: