joseph.crea's Blog
Posted by joseph.crea
Jul 15, 2019
Jul 15, 2019
Baccarat
I have developed a few strategies for both Bacarat and Roulellete.. I am trying to calculate odds but I don't know how.. What are the odds of this specific pattern B/P/B/P coming out 8 Times in a row? I am basically wondering the chances of P come out back to back after a P only came out once..Example:
Board
B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P before you see
B B B B B B B
B B
B
B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B/P/B
B B B B B B B B *P*
B B
B
Comments
You may not play Baccarat like that, thinking or hoping that the pattern in one shoe will carry over to another.
Some shoes are random with no discernible pattern and some do follow a pattern, it's just the luck of the shuffle as to whether you end up with a good (pattern) or bad (random) shoe.
Ha ha !
And what is the chance of getting a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ shoe, huh?
What about a ‘good in the first eleven hands, then bad for sixteen, then good again for twenty-two’ ?
In the end, the chance of a P coming up is always the same, whatever the past. The reason is that, even if you knew perfectly the composition of the remaining shoe, the ORDER of the next six cards is totally équiprobable and unpredictable . Yet it is that order that determines P or B.
kubikulann doesn't play so he doesn't know. All theory.
When you're IN the shoe you simply play the patterns, and when you're sufficiently ahead, you leave. On a good shoe you're going to walk away massively ahead, on a bad shoe as you keep trying to play the patterns and the patterns do not repeat, you just leave too. Patterns include chops, runs, 2:1 2:1 3:1 3:1 etc.
kubikulann you're making this much harder than it is. The main reason most Bacc. players lose is they keep playing trying to stick that square peg into the round hole, versus leaving after they are sufficiently ahead.
Here's a shoe I played earlier this year where it was just a question of HOW MUCH I won:
at the end of the shoe, I left. I tend to get at least one, if not more than one, good shoes each session. An associate of mine kept playing and while he was ahead $70K ended up down -$20K for his trip. He was Not happy.
In case you're blind, the pattern on that shoe was "player runs only one - bet the bank after each single player until it stops." Figured that out easily, in the beginning of the shoe. After this shoe was over, I left. I knew it couldn't get any better than that.
Another thing about my Bacc. play is I do not leave a run until it ends. I don't sit there anticipating when it will end. I've cleaned up on runs that were as short as four hands as long as almost thirty. I press into the run.
With this shoe above, once I won on the bank, I stayed on the bank. That's second nature to me. This was a very good, very easy shoe. But I have had lots of good shoes during my trips.
in case you're blind, the pattern on that shoe turned into "participant runs best one - wager the financial institution after each single participant till it stops." Figured that out without problems, in the starting of the shoe. After this shoe became over, I left. I knew it could not get any higher than that. https://www.calculatorall.com/lease-calculator