cccpedersen's Blog

Holdem Odds

In a prior post, someone asked what the odds were of hitting a set with a pair down in Texas Holdem. I believe the Wizard replied ~10%, but my calculations show it's about 19%. The way I figure it is that the chances of hitting a set is the inverse of not hitting the set. In other words, 1 minus the odds of not hitting a set. For example, given a pair down, the odds of hitting a set are the following:

1 - (48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 * 45/47 * 44/46) = ~19%

Am I wrong?