Posted by billygoat
Mar 09, 2016

probabilities and odds

Could someone please answer a few questions on odds, house advantage vs. pay table odds.
How does a table game, such as 3 card poker derive on their paytable payouts, how do they arrive at the payout of 40 to 1 or 30 to 1. how do they know what odds to offer the customer in such games. Games always have payout schedules, so how does a casino figure out what to pay for certain hands or certain probablitiles such as 500 to 1 for a royal. Anything you can provide would be great. Thanks Billygoat


odiousgambit Mar 11, 2016

Although this is a very basic question, the answer can overwhelm somebody who would have to ask it [asking it suggests it is very new to you]

You need to grasp the idea of a fair bet first.

For example, in Craps, you have the proposition bets. Take the "any 7" bet:

You bet that a seven will come up, if any other number comes up you lose.

There are 6 ways to roll a 7.

There are 30 ways to roll a different number.

So the odds should be 30 to 6 [thus 5 to 1, represented as 5:1] for a fair bet

What the casino does is come up with a way to pay less than fair odds, and in this case they stick with 4:1 payoff. I'm sure that way back when it was just a good sounding number to come up with. They have a big tendency to make their edge on prop. bets very large. In this case it is an awful 16.67%

To answer your question, the casino figures out the fair odds and then pays something short of that. It's just that simple.

Understanding Craps is not a bad way to start. You could study this if you need to:

billygoat Mar 15, 2016

ok here is another scenario; you have a deck of cards including 2 jokers making the deck 54 cards, whats the probability after shuffling, then removing an x amount of cards, say 5 from the deck. Then turning the next 2 cards over and revealing the 2 jokers or even just one joker. Whats the probability/odds of that happening. And if you had a paytable what would be the considered payout for that hand happening. Thanks

Amelie Mar 16, 2016

Maybe there are not probabilities or odds. Maybe it is just cheating.

odiousgambit Mar 21, 2016

>removing an x amount of cards, say 5 from the deck.

if the cards are chosen randomly, it has no effect

>Then turning the next 2 cards over and revealing the 2 jokers

Whats the probability/odds of that happening.

The odds of the first 2 cards being jokers I believe would be 1/54 times 1/53. Knowing that can you tell me what the fair odds are? If not you remind me of someone who might start asking a physics professor a bunch of stuff like "can you go backwards in time?", having the prof. go through it on your level with difficulty. Then the prof gets asked "are UFOs maybe for real?', and then another similar one, and finally it dawns on him that the questioner could not repeat back to him in any way what he has said in former answers, the whole business is just over the questioner's head. I apologize for being blunt.

>or even just one joker.

Just one joker is a harder question, I probably would get the wrong answer. Possibly 1/54 times 52/53

> what would be the considered payout for that hand happening.

like I say above, this question is not quite right, maybe suggesting you just don't have enough background to be dabbling in this. You could ask "what would a fair bet be?". If you don't know why that makes more sense, you need to school yourself some.

Also, questions are better asked in the Forum, not in blog posts. If I may make a more kindly response now, I'll just say if these sorts of questions interest you, why not try taking a class in statistics? Maybe just find a good text book? I found the link below for learning online pretty quickly, I'm sure there are others.

McDemon Apr 04, 2016

How would one calculate to odds on the following 2 card hands using a single deck of cards?

1. pair

2. flush

3. straight

4.straight flush

Any assistance would be appreciated